Summer 2012 WX Discussion

In the past 3 weeks I have only had .20" of rain and that came in about 15 min. Starting to get worried that summer is going to get stuck in this pattern like winter did and it won't let go till we get closer to fall. I know our summers are hot and dry here but geez this is crazy.

Yearly rainfall totals aren't really a good indicator of where we stand in soil moisture. You can have a lot of rain in Jan-March, and then little afterwards during the growing season (as an example), and be hurting as far as crops are concerned. Per the PDI index, 3-6 inches of rain is needed in East Tennessee, and 9-12 inches of rain is needed from the Plateau and points west.

VFL wrote: I know our summers are hot and dry here but geez this is crazy.

We are currently not in a drought..but we are abnormally dry here in ETN. Its also been a cooler than normal summer so far. Lol....So why is it crazy to you Milodog?

A strong subtropical "death" ridge looks to set up for the summer in the central sections of the US. This looks to be the "mean" position of the ridge this summer. We will definately feel some heat from it from time to time as it moves slightly around its "mean" position.

It wont be as bad as last year because its "mean' position last year was directly over us. So we have that working in our favor...and this will also allow for more summer precip than last here in the Tennessee valley.

The term “drought” can be thrown around too much and over-used, and a brown lawn doesn’t necessarily mean drought. Nevertheless, there are different types of drought, and they vary in severity. There are short term droughts that can affect gardens and seasonal crops. Then there are long-term droughts such as the one we experienced in 2007 that not only affect crops, but affect the water table and water supplies, such as reservoirs and lakes. We are nowhere near that currently, and long-term droughts are just that—they develop over long terms, such as years.

Having said that, I do believe we are currently in a moderate dry “snap” that could eventually lead to a moderate drought situation if our current pattern doesn’t change soon. Soil moisture is depleted every day, not only by the heat and sun, but also by the trees and vegetation that consume large quantities of water this time of year, especially when the temps climb into the 90’s.

So, yes, we need a good soaking rain of several inches over a week or two to reverse the current trend in East Tennessee, and to prevent us from slipping into a more serious situation that is already occurring further west and north of us. This is hopefully a short term dry spell, but it is coming at the worst possible time for us—when farmers are depending on regular rains for a good harvest later. If by the end of next week we still haven’t seen appreciable rain (and after the heat later this week), the lack of soil moisture will become a serious concern for farmers here in East TN, as it already is for many other parts of the U.S.

Agreed Freak...Also the drought maps produced by NOAA are really not all that accurate down to the local level either. My uncle is having problems related to too much moisture on his farm while my Brother living one county away from him is as dry as a bone.

On the other hand the soil is just right here...gardens/lawns/large fields of corn are just as green as can be. Im really not concerned about dry weather around here at this time.

Im afraid we are fixing to enter a pattern of too much rain towards the end of summer when the jet starts dropping and the whole pattern retrogrades west... which will probably cause alot more harvest damage than your normal summer heat could.

I can assure you that NW TN is on the verge of a drought. It is not looking good and my 10 day has 6 out of 10 at 99 or 100.

Im here to eat some Crow from Bruce...word has it that Memphis hit the triple digit mark today. I was hoping for a whole summer without any place in the state hitting 100

Has that ever happened?

Toot wrote:

VFL wrote: I know our summers are hot and dry here but geez this is crazy.

We are currently not in a drought..but we are abnormally dry here in ETN. Its also been a cooler than normal summer so far. Lol....So why is it crazy to you Milodog?

Not saying were in a drought just very dry. I water my yard 2-3 hours a day and mine is still very nice but my neighbors yard look like a piece of burnt whole grain toast. A quick shower helps me out but it will be a while before the yards around me recover and looking at the next week or so their is no relief down the road.

I feel ya VFL...we could definately use a pop up thunderstorm down here in the valley on a daily basis. Ive been doing alot of trout fishing up in the mtns and the streams all have good water levels up there...of course they get the whole orographic powered thunderstorms relatively often.

Its a little dry here in the great valley of East TN but IMO correlations and pattern trends mixed with current summer teleconnections support average to above average precip most of the summer around here...But looking ahead even further using the same methods it does look dry towards the end of summer and almost all of fall/Autumn.

That data also suggests a little on the warmer side of average this Autumn too....but im getting ahead of myself...its still June

Toot wrote:Im here to eat some Crow from Bruce...word has it that Memphis hit the triple digit mark today. I was hoping for a whole summer without any place in the state hitting 100

Has that ever happened?

The coolest summer in recent memory was 2009. But don't know if any official reporting station failed to hit 100F the whole summer. I do know Knoxville only hit 90 a handful of times, which was very unusual in itself.

WxFreak wrote:

Toot wrote:Im here to eat some Crow from Bruce...word has it that Memphis hit the triple digit mark today. I was hoping for a whole summer without any place in the state hitting 100

Has that ever happened?

The coolest summer in recent memory was 2009. But don't know if any official reporting station failed to hit 100F the whole summer. I do know Knoxville only hit 90 a handful of times, which was very unusual in itself.

i was hoping you were right on this toot,but yep... the century mark got hit today

WxFreak wrote:The term “drought” can be thrown around too much and over-used, and a brown lawn doesn’t necessarily mean drought. Nevertheless, there are different types of drought, and they vary in severity. There are short term droughts that can affect gardens and seasonal crops. Then there are long-term droughts such as the one we experienced in 2007 that not only affect crops, but affect the water table and water supplies, such as reservoirs and lakes. We are nowhere near that currently, and long-term droughts are just that—they develop over long terms, such as years.

Having said that, I do believe we are currently in a moderate dry “snap” that could eventually lead to a moderate drought situation if our current pattern doesn’t change soon. Soil moisture is depleted every day, not only by the heat and sun, but also by the trees and vegetation that consume large quantities of water this time of year, especially when the temps climb into the 90’s.

So, yes, we need a good soaking rain of several inches over a week or two to reverse the current trend in East Tennessee, and to prevent us from slipping into a more serious situation that is already occurring further west and north of us. This is hopefully a short term dry spell, but it is coming at the worst possible time for us—when farmers are depending on regular rains for a good harvest later. If by the end of next week we still haven’t seen appreciable rain (and after the heat later this week), the lack of soil moisture will become a serious concern for farmers here in East TN, as it already is for many other parts of the U.S.

its sure not being over used in west tn. getting very serious over here indeed..

It is becoming a very serious situation in West TN. And I'm not convinced we in East TN will escape it before the summer is over. After the coming heat wave, and if no rain falls between now and next week, I think moderate drought might start encroaching into our area. Temps approaching 100F for several days will bake the ground this weekend.

When I stated that the term drought can be overused, I wasn't addressing anyone here. I meant in the news media at large. They tend to over-hype everything these days to get better ratings.

Well...I am ready for fall. Fall weather is so much more interesting than this. Its bad when you consider just some normal rainfall as wx action

Toot wrote:Well...I am ready for fall. Fall weather is so much more interesting than this. Its bad when you consider just some normal rainfall as wx action

Yes, even with the heat of last summer, at least we did have some occasional storm action after a very active winter and spring. This ho-hum spell in our weather has been going on basically since the winter-like storm of last October.

Today was extremely pleasant...you could feel the freshness of a cooler airmass this morning as a front passed through sometime last night I think. Just an all around gorgeous day

Yes, it was a beaut of a day. Cooler, lower humidity and a decent breeze. It also feels great this evening. It's too bad things are gonna change. Really dread this heat comin' this weekend. I only hope this winter balances this heat with equal cold AND snow.

Well...this is not what I wanted to see in the euros long range

Hr 240

The NAO is currently still in negative territory. I'm not an expert on this, but if a -NAO is a "blocking" pattern (Greenland Block), could it be that it is the very cause of this weather rut we are stuck in, and the heat ridge currently locked in over the central U.S.? How does the NAO work in summer, compared to winter? Just wondering WTH is going on with this pattern.

I have heard the negative phase of the NAO during summer correlates to a SE ridge but I haven't seen any concrete evidence of that.

The negative phase of the NAO has MUCH less of an affect on our weather during summer. The main reason for this is because the jetstream buckle (Trough) that it causes is too far north and east during summer to have much of a impact on temps and precip.

Im afraid the beast that's controlling this weather pattern is also the source. Mr. I am a Gigantic warm core ridge is dictating our weather pattern.

Toot wrote:Im afraid the beast that's controlling this weather pattern is also the source. Mr. I am a Gigantic warm core ridge is dictating our weather pattern.

It doesn't look like he has plans on leaving any time soon.

I opened all the windows last night and enjoyed some fresh air while I could. Feels SOOO good this morning. Temps in the 50's, and low humidity.

On another note, heard on the morning news that our wild fire danger is increasing with each passing day we don't see rain. With the 4th of July upon us, everyone be safe with the pyrotechnics!

WxFreak wrote:I opened all the windows last night and enjoyed some fresh air while I could. Feels SOOO good this morning. Temps in the 50's, and low humidity.

I did the same. I'm sure when the wife and kids get downstairs they will complain about it being cold.

Coach B wrote:

WxFreak wrote:I opened all the windows last night and enjoyed some fresh air while I could. Feels SOOO good this morning. Temps in the 50's, and low humidity.

I did the same. I'm sure when the wife and kids get downstairs they will complain about it being cold.

LOL...yeah, I actually turned off the fan in the middle of the night because it was getting cool, but it felt good. I would rather be cool when I sleep, than sweatin'.

We may have one more night (tonight) where the window fans can be used instead of the air conditioner. But afterwards, it's Katie bar the door (and windows). High pressure bringin' the hot hammer down on our heads.

Went outside for lunch today. It's actually a very pleasant afternoon. Humidity still low, and temps aren't oppressive yet. Everyone enjoy. Who knows when we'll see this kind of weather again this summer.