Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

by **VFL** 2012-07-29, 10:00 pm

Toot wrote:4km NAM finally picked up on what the 12km had for the last two days West TN MCS/BOW ECHO

West Tennesse can have the wind if they will give me the rain.
Any chance we get some rain?

by **Toot** 2012-07-29, 11:15 pm

Rain/Tstorm chances will increase to likely in east TN on tuesday

by **Stovepipe** 2012-07-30, 9:07 am

That cold front this weekend was awesome. I sweated like a pig setting up camp Friday evening, Saturday evening the wife was pulling out blankets to keep warm. Ultimately it was perfect weather for being outdoors in East TN, especially in late July.

by **Coach B** 2012-07-30, 12:42 pm

Stovepipe wrote:That cold front this weekend was awesome. Ultimately it was perfect weather for being outdoors in East TN, especially in late July.

It was pretty nice over here in middle TN as well. We actually opened up the windows for a couple of days. AC will have to come back on today though.

by **Adam2014** 2012-07-30, 12:51 pm

Cold front didn't hardly make it through our area. The weather yesterday was not bad.

by **Toot** 2012-07-30, 6:17 pm

From my blog

A complex of severe thundertorms associated with a compact and intense low pressure system should fire up in the TN valley late tonight. This tropical like low will race to the SE bowing out a line of severe thunderstorms through parts of the dixie area tomorrow.

Intense cloud to ground lightning and damaging winds are expected. All interests will need to keep a close eye on their local weather situation.
Summer 2012 WX Discussion - Page 18 480468_290205377753888_772643460_n

Summer 2012 WX Discussion - Page 18 480468_290205377753888_772643460_n

by **Adam2014** 2012-07-30, 8:08 pm

2.25 inch hail possible in a storm in Northeast Arkansas.

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-07-30, 9:44 pm

nice bow signature coming out of dyer co. about now... this cell i have been watching last hour, put down some 70 mph winds back in the bootheel of missouri. with wind damga being reported.

by **Adam2014** 2012-07-30, 10:08 pm

There is some CAP over Middle Tennessee this needs to break which it is forecasted to if we want to see any storms tonight. This shortwave is very compact in nature though. Wow!

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-07-30, 10:23 pm

Adam2014 wrote:There is some CAP over Middle Tennessee this needs to break which it is forecasted to if we want to see any storms tonight. This shortwave is very compact in nature though. Wow!

adam i think what cap there is willl erode pretty quickly ... nice cells developing upstream in the mo. bootheel. mmoving southeast there just pulse type now

by **Adam2014** 2012-07-30, 10:47 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:
Adam2014 wrote:There is some CAP over Middle Tennessee this needs to break which it is forecasted to if we want to see any storms tonight. This shortwave is very compact in nature though. Wow!
adam i think what cap there is willl erode pretty quickly ... nice cells developing upstream in the mo. bootheel. mmoving southeast there just pulse type now

As long as we have moisture increase into the area we will be fine.

by **Toot** 2012-07-31, 4:29 pm

Well..tomorrow starts a new month and its the last month of meteorlogical summer. I expect much of the same pattern to continue for the month of august. That means hot in west/central united states with temps around normal in the east. The active pattern will also continue in the eastern US for the month of August.

Summer 2012 WX Discussion - Page 18 561022_290410524400040_1032174791_n

Summer 2012 WX Discussion - Page 18 561022_290410524400040_1032174791_n

I should ad that the ridge's mean position looks to move a little west of its mean position so far. That COULD work to keep us a little cooler

by **Jed33** 2012-07-31, 10:02 pm

Wow, with only a 20% chance of rain for tonight from MRX as of this afternoon's AFD, I thought we wouldn't get anything this evening. We missed out on the overnight/morning rain today; however, we racked up big this evening. Got about 1.25 in of rain this evening. About .90 of that fell in just a little over 25 min yikes

Some of the heaviest rain I've seen in a long time. Really a cool storm. I guess the models didn't pick up well on this evening's storms/MCV, b/c there was WAY more than 20% coverage, lol. Here's hoping August can continue the pattern of rain and storms every few days

by **WxFreak** 2012-08-01, 6:31 am

Yes, MRX should've done an update yesterday evening. The CWA was blanketed with a 20% chance of storms, but coverage was more like 60-80% as storms dropped northeast to southwest across the area. Many areas also saw severe winds with some tree damage noted in multiple counties across the area. The storms caught most of the public off guard if they weren't paying attention to local radar, or watching the sky.

by **WxFreak** 2012-08-01, 8:51 am

I’ve noticed a shift in our weather over the last few summers. Seems our “Bermuda High” is almost a thing of the past. Last summer, and again this summer, a huge semi-permanent high seems to park itself somewhere in the middle of North America. Last year it caused the epic drought in Texas. This year, the Southern Plains, and much of the mid-west, are once again baking under a dome of hot, dry air, and the Bermuda High, that normally draws moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into our nation’s mid section on southeast winds, seems to have little influence. I’m not sure if this is the start of a trend, but if it continues summer after summer, then true long-term drought could begin to affect our nation’s bread basket. They say weather comes in cycles, and what has happened is sure to happen again. The Plains are very susceptible to drought and we may be seeing the start of another long-term drying in areas that feed most of our country, if not much of the world. Let’s hope for some winter snowstorms to reverse the trend.

by **Toot** 2012-08-01, 3:13 pm

Thats interesting Freak. Ive noticed the seasons are kind of screwed up for a few years now. Everything seems to be early compared to normal.

Meanwhile looks like a SVR watch will probably be needed this evening for good chunk of the state

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1670
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 PM CDT WED AUG 01 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE/ERN TN...WRN NC...FAR SWRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 011852Z - 011945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER PARTS OF MIDDLE TN AND THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW CLUSTERS MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP...POSING A RISK FOR STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. A WW MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED. PARTS OF THIS REGION WILL ALSO BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK AT 20Z.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS BUILDING CU/TOWERING CU FIELD NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR SWRN VA...AS STRONG HEATING HAS ERODED MOST CINH. THREE MESOSCALE FEATURES OF INTEREST ARE APPARENT...INCLUDING 1) A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SRN KY...2) A LINE OF CU ORIENTED SSW TO NNE ACROSS ERN TN ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE FROM EARLIER TODAY AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...AND 3) A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ENTERING ERN KY. EACH OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.

RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S/ IS YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG...DESPITERELATIVELY WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES.

ADDITIONALLY...MODERATE MIDLEVEL FLOW /30-35 KTS/ WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS TO EVOLVE AS TSTMS CONSOLIDATE/MERGE...PROPAGATING TOWARDS THE SSE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...AND MAY REQUIRE ISSUANCE OF A WW SHOULD CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-08-01, 3:46 pm

Yep, radar is lighting up across east TN.

3:45pm

Summer 2012 WX Discussion - Page 18 2afweq1

by **windstorm** 2012-08-01, 4:04 pm

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 546
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
245 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2012

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 546 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TNC001-005-007-009-011-013-015-021-025-027-031-035-037-041-043-
049-057-061-063-065-067-081-083-085-087-089-093-105-107-111-115-
121-123-125-129-133-137-139-141-143-145-147-149-151-153-155-159-
161-165-169-173-175-177-185-187-189-020300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0546.120801T1945Z-120802T0300Z/

TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANDERSON BENTON BLEDSOE
BLOUNT BRADLEY CAMPBELL
CANNON CHEATHAM CLAIBORNE
CLAY COFFEE CUMBERLAND
DAVIDSON DE KALB DICKSON
FENTRESS GRAINGER GRUNDY
HAMBLEN HAMILTON HANCOCK
HICKMAN HOUSTON HUMPHREYS
JACKSON JEFFERSON KNOX
LOUDON MACON MARION
MCMINN MEIGS MONROE
MONTGOMERY MORGAN OVERTON
PICKETT POLK PUTNAM
RHEA ROANE ROBERTSON
RUTHERFORD SCOTT SEQUATCHIE
SEVIER SMITH STEWART
SUMNER TROUSDALE UNION
VAN BUREN WARREN WHITE
WILLIAMSON WILSON
$$

by **Toot** 2012-08-01, 5:02 pm

GFS is starting to show big hints of the summer pattern being crippled. The longwave pattern is becoming more amplified with lower heights continuing to march southward.

Summer 2012 WX Discussion - Page 18 Gfs_z500_uv_noram_57

Summer 2012 WX Discussion - Page 18 Gfs_z500_uv_noram_57

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-08-01, 6:05 pm

Toot wrote:GFS is starting to show big hints of the summer pattern being crippled. The longwave pattern is becoming more amplified with lower heights continuing to march southward.

me like the looks of that wash