Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Adam2014 wrote: Storms like this are what re-write history and the way we think about storm systems.

Toot wrote:

Adam2014 wrote: Storms like this are what re-write history and the way we think about storm systems.

That's a good point Adam..if the euro or the CMC has their way it most definately would be Historic. I really never think about it that way..but we could actually be watching a "benchmark" type of storm unfolding right before our eyes looking at guidance data. I would like to see the GFS come on board (The 18zGFS was the same.. OTS) before I get super excited...lol

That said.. this system is causing quite the fuss in the weather community!

Dyersburg Weather wrote:

Toot wrote:This thread is way too quiet..I feel like im talking to myself!!

Maybe everybody believes that you cant get accumulating snow in the lower elevations of Tennessee in October. Ive heard some say "Its never gonna happen" on different forums. IMO that is some retarded logic. That is the same as saying "We're gonna get snow for sure" both of those phrases are the same logic in my book.

Anyways.. back to reality here! Tonights 0z model runs will have hurricane hunter aircraft data ingested into them. Will be interesting to see how each model handles things. I stayed up for the euro last night..lol I just couldnt sleep with such an anomalous setup being progged!

Meanwhile the 18z GFS is running

Toot I have actually seen a solid 4 inches of snow on the ground on Halloween at my house. I will have to do some digging to remember what year but it can happen.

skillsweather wrote:Is that showing us in the 20's? and the purple area in the teens?

Toot wrote:First..let me say that the Canadian trended towards an out to sea solution this afternoon...which was surprising!!The GFS ensembles have continued to trend towards the phased solution though. Ive been looking at model data most of the afternoon and I must say if this system phases and retrogrades like the European/Canadian/Nogaps have been consistently suggesting.. it's gonna be historic!! I think it will surprise many at how large the precip shield is. Winds will be howling several hundred miles away from the stormcenter and you better believe there will be an impressive fetch from northwest flow.

This graphic is my current thoughts about the possibility of accumulating snow if the phased/retrograded solution verifies. This graphic is based on the guidance consensus over the past few days and behavior of similar storms in the past. This image does not take into account snow flying in the air that doesnt accumulate from NW flow.

Adam2014 wrote:Toot if I may make a suggestion to your call map so far. I would honestly put the best chance of heavy snow in the mountains of PA/NY because the EURO has been pinpointing it there for the last few runs. That is just a suggestion.

Toot wrote:

Adam2014 wrote:Toot if I may make a suggestion to your call map so far. I would honestly put the best chance of heavy snow in the mountains of PA/NY because the EURO has been pinpointing it there for the last few runs. That is just a suggestion.

Thanks Adam..but the clown map from accupro is the only data showing that. 1000-500mb thickness values doesnt support it.

ELECTED TO STAY THE COURSE BY KEEPING THE MAJOR EAST COAST STORM IN PLAY FOR THE FINAL FORECAST. THE 12Z/23 DETERMINISTIC GFS SENDS SANDY'S CIRCULATION OUT PAST BERMUDA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, WHILE THE 12Z/23 GEFS MEAN INCORPORATES IT ALONG THE EAST COAST IN LINE WITH THE HPC MANUAL FORECAST. THE 12Z/23 GEM GLOBAL KEEPS SANDY OUT OF REACH OF THE DIGGING TROUGH OVER NORTH AMERICA, THOUGH LIKE THE LATEST GFS, IT IS PERHAPS BEST TO REGARD SUCH A DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION AS A SLIGHTLY SOUPED-UP ENSEMBLE MEMBER. THE 12Z/23 ECMWF STILL INCORPORATES AN EXTREMELY DEEP POST-TROPICAL SANDY INTO THE MID-LEVEL PIVOT POINT OF THE POLAR JET IN THE VICINITY OF LONG ISLAND EARLY NEXT TUESDAY, THE DYNAMIC TRANSFER RESULTING IN A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF AT LEAST 932MB. THEREIN LIES THE STORM'S MENACE- A POWERHOUSE CAPABLE OF WHIPPING THE ATLANTIC INTO A FRENZY AND CHURNING UP DANGEROUS TIDES. OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE COINCIDENCE OF THE FULL MOON ON SUNDAY, OFTEN A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN HISTORICAL EVENTS. THE OCEAN EFFECTS OF THE SYSTEM MAY STILL BE REALIZED EVEN IF POST-TROPICAL SANDY DOES NOT MAKE LANDFALL IN THE UNITED STATES. BESIDES THE WIND, THE OTHER SENSIBLE WEATHER THREAT IS HEAVY RAINS, WITH HEAVY SNOWS POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE HYBRID CIRCULATION WHERE CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR RUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

HAVE PREFERRED THE EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE FOR HANDLING OF THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW, ITS SYNOPTIC NUANCES BEST SERVING THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN UNITED STATES WHERE THE FLOW OPENS UP IN THE WAKE OF THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN TROUGH.