Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

i know i havent posted about this system... my thinking is a trough n trailing strong cold front picks this sexy girl up ... and out the sea she will blow... but its interesting to follow, thats for sure

tennessee storm09 wrote:and out the sea she will blow

90% of the GFS ensembles have started a trend to the west after all of them was going out to sea just yesterday. I expect they will continue to come west. Its all about how deep that trough is when it swings eastward! I put the odds of this landfalling in North America at about 80% now

Here is the 12z GFS ensemble mean


Im thinking the 0zGFS Op will look like the euro tonight!

Well the 0Z GFS is now a partial phase... big jog westward from the 12z run. The 0z NAM is a virtual twin to the Euro.I think the question of whether this goes out to sea or landfalls has been answered now.. as just about every model on earth is now phasing Sandy with the cold front. The interesting thing is.. I dont think the models are done shifting this westward folks.

Stay tuned.. it looks like the big one Elizabeth!

But I thought we was going to get snow from this the way you guys was talking about it few days ago. Your prediction map has snow far from me so guess that wont happen. Anyways the snow wouldn't last long so don't matter I guess I just hope this keeps us locked in colder weather I don't want another 80 degree day till late April. This storm is crazy but I was watching TV other day and turns out there has been hurricanes in the Atlantic in December and even January. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Alice_(December_1954)

skillsweather wrote:But I thought we was going to get snow from this the way you guys was talking about it few days ago.

Lol..Oh boy here we go..who said you was going get any snow? Or what was said to make you think you would get any snow? Im not sure who.. or if anyone will get any snow from this system. The graphic I made clearly states its only valid if the system phases and doesnt go out to sea. That said..many outcomes with this system is still possible and it wouldnt surprise me if you seen some snow flying in the air..but it's not likely. Accumulating snow is almost definately not possible west of the plateau! Im just wondering what made you think you would get any snow in the first place? Find me a quote or something!

Meanwhile the 0zNogaps took a huge step westward and is phasing very early compared to where it was at 12z....it is the crazy nogaps..but I expect other models to also come more westward

Well there's no quotes specifically saying "Middle Tennessee will get snow" but just the overall talk and mentioning other record breaking systems and stuff just seems like thats what you guys was talking about. Heres 1 quote

Toot wrote:This thread is way too quiet..I feel like im talking to myself!!

Maybe everybody believes that you cant get accumulating snow in the lower elevations of Tennessee in October.

I am not like really into reading the models (if you cant tell lol) so when I read what you guys post and show pictures of the models I see green and the 540 down in Florida so my mind tells me green is precip; 540 = freezing point. And I assume that means snowflakes then that with this is a epic storm,Historic storm, It can snow in October and all of them like statements just confused me I guess into thinking thats what was being talked about. Me personally I wish that would happen I just wasn't expecting it too but was hoping it would. Also, usually in winter when we talk about phasing that means snow so hearing all the models now showing phasing with the cold air just makes me think were in middle of winter I guess. Idrk I just know I want winter to hurry up! Tired of non-snow like weather.

skillsweather wrote:Well there's no quotes specifically saying "Middle Tennessee will get snow" but just the overall talk and mentioning other record breaking systems and stuff just seems like thats what you guys was talking about. Heres 1 quote

Fair enough..sorry If I mislead you with that statement. Maybe that wasnt the best way to encourage posting about this system. But this is an anomalous setup and there is wide range of extreme outcomes that is very possible for much of the eastern US

Anyways the Canadian is back out to sea this morning Its off to bed for me

I like how we have ownership of the term "halloblizzard."

Good morning...Tropical Storm Sandy is right on th cusp of officially becoming a hurricane this morning.. with a minimum central pressure of 983Mb and sustained winds of 70MPH.

The GFS ensembles are all showing the phased solution now and all of them have an impressive and very large wind field! What these images proabably are not showing is alot of scattered precip due to NW flow/cold advection. NW flow precip is not picked up that well by most global models and hardly at all by individual ensemble members.

6z


Meanwhile the Euro and GFS have both pretty much stood their ground in their latest runs.

Stovepipe wrote:I like how we have ownership of the term "halloblizzard."

That is crazy

She is definately winding up this morning..it would not surprise me to see an eye pop out sometime today. Extremely fun system..get to talk about her in a tropical aspect and a winter one too



I'll be glued to the droid today at work!

Sandy is now Officially a hurricane

From met Rick Wichman via Twitter:

#Sandy is being taken very seriously. NWS offices across the ENTIRE country being asked to launch wx balloons every 6 hours next few days.

Im glad they are launching more balloons..as we will have a much better forecast for this system. If the 12z Euro and GFS Ensembles are correct...Im definately liking the chances for some wintry fun and games in the mountains of east Tennessee at the very least! We'll see what tonights run brings.. but this will likely be a storm that is talked about for years to come. This will be due to how many people it will likely effect in an extreme manner..whether their effects be high wind..surge/flood.. or tree snapping.. heavy snow damage!!

The 12z GFS ensembles are really bombing and retrograding this monster!!


I cant see much stopping West Virginia and parts of Pennsylvania from getting buried in snow at this point!! Of course this whole post is based only on 12z guidance data.. but this is a VERY anomalous looking setup

Hurricane Sandy appears to be going through an intensification phase right now as her eye seems to be clearing out. The NHC updated her pressure to 968Mb and sustained winds of 85MPH. Looks like Cuba is going to get lashed!

So far Sandy is behaving as forecast.



Latest model roundup looks like this


12zJMA looks alot like the Euro and GFS ensembles


12zEuro


12zCanadian..looks alot like the hurricane models


18zNAM Looks alot like the Euro but even further west and south


18zGFS does some crazy shit goes out to sea then does a 180 degree turn and landfalls in canada..not likely to verify as a matter of fact its the outlier


18z Nogaps looks alot like the euro but is much faster than any model..its way too fast


18z Hurricane spaghetti models

Looks like Frankie is going with a direct hit on the Big Apple..lol

"Waves will be above 100 Kilometers per hour"

Man, I love looking at these models and how this Halloblizzard is setting up. I am in awe at the Euro solution, well, really GFS too. If this pattern repeats itself this winter, and we get some help from the GOM, lookout! I can only imagine what would happen if even another low formed in the gulf and phased with this monster too. Man, would that even be possible? Don't know, but i'd like too see it. Meanwhile, this thing is really peaking my interest!

This thing is still trending West! Almost every run has come further West.

Adam2014 wrote:This thing is still trending West! Almost every run has come further West.

Yeah..that's what ive been thinking since early yesterday..if the euro comes west at 0z its on!

Toot wrote:

Adam2014 wrote:This thing is still trending West! Almost every run has come further West.

Yeah..that's what ive been thinking since early yesterday..if the euro comes west at 0z its on!

I mean if you look at it, the models have been ALL OVER THE PLACE when it comes to any sort of tropical system.

Hurricane Sandy is approaching Category two strength tonight in between Cuba and Jamaica. Minimum central pressure is down to 954Mb and winds have increased to 90MPH!

Last update before turning in for the night

Hurricane Sandy is now right on the cusp of becoming a Major Hurricane..Officially its still a CAT 2 at 110MPH and 957Mb but still a very dangerous storm. It wont be long until she landfalls in Cuba..but is expected to re-emerge pretty well organized over open water tomorrow where she will make another run at a major hurricane before transitioning into a non tropical system.

0z Euro looks to drop 2-4 inches of snow in far NE TN. West Virginia will be digging out for weeks if it comes to pass.