Re: Eastern US Winter Storm possible(Thanksgiving timeframe)

by **Grandpa Nasty** 2012-11-12, 3:36 pm

Hey Pipe, the good thing about turkey day is if it doesn't snow you can always fill your belly with some post turkey liquor. FYI, im having a fresh margarita now and getting ready to go eat Mexican.
As for the forecast, I have been hearing about a nice cold low 40s rain around Txgiving. Be nice to have a surprise white turkey day.

by **snowdog** 2012-11-12, 3:40 pm

Stovepipe wrote:Not looking good for cold air on the Euro. I'm thinking even if the indices do crash it may take a bit to see any real results. From everything I'm seeing/reading Thanksgiving snow is a major long shot in the east, especially TN.

Yeah I've thought that from the beginning. I'm not seeing it either.

by **Toot** 2012-11-12, 3:49 pm

Somebody in the eastern us will probably get dumped on in the eastern us around this timeframe and btw the pattern doesnt respond to the indices..its the indices that respond to the pattern. I will have a full update later tonight

by **Stovepipe** 2012-11-12, 3:57 pm

There is some fantasy cold, maybe even some snow, around the 26th on the GFS. It's certainly possible things improve by month's end. But a 60% chance of snow for Thanksgiving? Not seeing anything at all to suggest such confidence. But I'm open to being enlightened.

by **snowdog** 2012-11-12, 4:02 pm

It still looks the same as it did a couple of days ago to me, a somewhat cut-off low that has no access to the northern stream which is up in Canada. I still think we see near normal temps around Turkey Day.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-11-12, 4:03 pm

An excerpt from Robert's latest blog:

There’s no big cold airmasses coming anytime soon to the Southeast or East Coast. Greenland is too cold and there is still a trough in the Gulf of Alaska and in the Pacific with basically split flow ruling and no PNA to force cold airmasses down yet. This is totally expected though since we are just now coming off a very strong -AO and -NAO pattern, so the atmosphere wants to relax a bit.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-11-12, 4:07 pm

Also, none of the models even show a negative AO/NAO for this time frame.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/12zlinegraphs.html

by **joereb1** 2012-11-12, 4:21 pm

Toot, I'm betting on ya forecast. I'd love a cold turkey day with all the fixings!!!! Let it snow baby!!!!!

by **Toot** 2012-11-12, 5:28 pm

Stovepipe wrote:Not looking good for cold air on the Euro.

First of all..you HAVE to use ensembles when you are as much as two weeks out!! You cannot use individual OP models..they will change EVERY single day. You all are not looking at the bigger picture and are focusing WAYYY too much on what individual models say verbatimally when this threat is still too far out to look at any small scale details!!
How many times do I have to repeat this?? gaah

For instance here is todays 12zGFS ensembles temp departure from normal on day 8!!
Eastern US Winter Storm possible(Thanksgiving timeframe) - Page 2 D8

Eastern US Winter Storm possible(Thanksgiving timeframe) - Page 2 D8

That graphic shows around 18 degrees below normal in eastern TN on day 8!!

Stovepipe wrote:
I'm thinking even if the indices do crash it may take a bit to see any real results.

Like I said earlier...Weather patterns do not respond to indices!! The indices respond to the weather patterns !! whistle

Stovepipe wrote:There is some fantasy cold, maybe even some snow, around the 26th on the GFS.

I created this thread for the thanksgiving period timeframe ( which in my mind is the Nov 22-30th! There is no way I could have pinpointed one partiular day 2-3 weeks ahead of time..thats just not possible! Guidance models are still not even close to agreeing on the outcome of the SW trough moving across the nation in about a weeks time. Therefore the winter threat for the eastern US still exists during the thanksgiving timeframe! Wink

Stovepipe wrote:Also, none of the models even show a negative AO/NAO for this time frame.

Here is the 12z gfs ensembles clearly showing the trend towards negative as we get close to thanksgiving.
Eastern US Winter Storm possible(Thanksgiving timeframe) - Page 2 Sv5539

Eastern US Winter Storm possible(Thanksgiving timeframe) - Page 2 Sv5539

The Euro also supports this too
Eastern US Winter Storm possible(Thanksgiving timeframe) - Page 2 1nyag5

But the actual values are unimportant right now!! If you're familiar with some of Paul Kocin's winter storm correlations you would know that the big snowstorms often happen in the transition periods when the NAO is actually in the process of changing from one cycle to the other!

And lastly is the 500mb Euro ensemble mean which speaks for itself. Its the same pattern that produced Sandy and the Noreaster that followed sandy evl

Eastern US Winter Storm possible(Thanksgiving timeframe) - Page 2 F560m0

Notice the Anomalous blocking in NE North America..something big will come from this pattern and the operational models do not have any clue as of yet! You dont have to believe me and i will personally eat crow if im wrong..but I can totally see a big snowstorm verifying in the eastern US if the GFS/EURO ensemble pattern is correct...and most likely it will be another Nor'easter!!

by **Toot** 2012-11-12, 5:36 pm

Stovepipe wrote: But a 60% chance of snow for Thanksgiving?

Just so I dont have to repeat this again

I am not forecasting a 60% chance of snow on Thanksgiving day...Im not even forecasting snow in TN. All im saying is.. the potential is there for a big snowstorm somewhere in the eastern US from Nov 22-30th and I give it a 60% chance of happening

by **skillsweather** 2012-11-12, 6:04 pm

This time of year it snows in the high places of the mountains with every system. Are you talking about lower elevations in eastern US or anywhere high or low elevations?

by **Toot** 2012-11-12, 6:17 pm

skillsweather wrote:This time of year it snows in the high places of the mountains with every system. Are you talking about lower elevations in eastern US or anywhere high or low elevations?

Toot wrote: this threat is still too far out to look at any small scale details!!

by **Adam2014** 2012-11-12, 6:19 pm

Skills, I have been looking into the model guidance. And although you really can't look into the small scale details of what type of storm it will be and where, some of the models are hinting at another Nor'Easter.

by **Toot** 2012-11-12, 6:44 pm

Adam2014 wrote:Skills, I have been looking into the model guidance. And although you really can't look into the small scale details of what type of storm it will be and where, some of the models are hinting at another Nor'Easter.

Totally agree Adam!! Finally someone in this thread with some synoptic pattern recognition!! Kudos Buddy!

Here is a little 500mb comparison to last weeks noreaster!

Eastern US Winter Storm possible(Thanksgiving timeframe) - Page 2 374133_329051010535991_2070791447_n

Eastern US Winter Storm possible(Thanksgiving timeframe) - Page 2 374133_329051010535991_2070791447_n

by **joereb1** 2012-11-12, 6:54 pm

Joey likey!!!!!!

by **Adam2014** 2012-11-12, 7:59 pm

The Nor'easter pattern has been huge as of late. If this type of system were to pan out, then it would be the 3rd Nor'easter in a month. (That is if you count Sandy as a Nor'Easter.

by **Adam2014** 2012-11-12, 8:12 pm

The GFS and Euro both have a Nor'easter from hours 150-180. Remember the snow that parts of the Northeast experience last week was not progged until a couple days before. That is what Toot is talking about. If the storm is strong enough, then there is bound to be some cold air thrown in their somewhere.

by **snowdog** 2012-11-12, 8:31 pm

Ahh, it's going to be a fun winter. gun

Also, I don't see too much correlation in the flow pattern. One has a huge low in the Gulf of Alaska and one has a huge High. As Stove mentioned, the Pac is completely different.

by **jmundie** 2012-11-12, 9:04 pm

Toot -

The key difference between those patterns is the deep trough over Alaska. Regardless of how big a block is over Greenland, a cold air source is necessary. And when the cold air is stuck in the gulf of Alaska, and Pacfic air is flowing hardcore across the southern tier of states.

You will end up with temps slightly below normal, with some sort of coastal system developing.

by **Toot** 2012-11-12, 9:30 pm

Stovepipe wrote:Toot, how about you use a few more exclamation points, maybe your point would be clearer...

It's fine that you are honing in on a fantasy storm. I welcome all predictions, that's what's fun. But you need to chill out a bit or you're going to burst an artery. No need to get that riled up when people don't see eye to eye with you. Your blood pressure is through the roof and it's not even Thanksgiving yet.

You can call the situation with the cold air a 'small scale detail' and jump all over people about it if you like. It's still a significant issue in this time frame, regardless of where the indices are trending. If the pacific doesn't cooperate, there ain't gonna be any cold air to work with unless CAD type funny business sets in for some people. Probably, who knows. There is certainly not much in the models, ensembles or otherwise, beyond typical 2 week fantasy stuff.

Again, I'm glad we have the thread on this and I always look forward to your input. But being prickish when people disagree with your weenie early call isn't conducive to good discussion.

First of all this is not a fantasy storm its around 180 hrs! It would benefit you to know which storm we are even talking about before you try to halfass debate it..
retard

Stove There is more to it than looking at a blue freezing line and green precip!! The ensembles keyed in on a deep EUS trough about 5 days ago they all pretty much agree on the system..but the track and strength and phasing of upper level energy is nowhere close to being agreed on. And no.. you're still wrong about the small scale details..YOU CANNOT LOOK AT SMALL SCALE DETAILS AT THIS RANGE WITH ANY ACCURACY!! You can say that you can all day until ur blue in the face but you're lying to yourself!!!!!!!!!!! Any good met knows this !!!!!

Thirdly you want have to worry about CAD in the east TN valley..teee hehe lapat

Number 4.. I havent made any call on this storm...so you calling my call a weenie one is also incorrect and childish of yourself. No call has been made by me gaah

The Pacific is not even playing much of a role with this system..hell..I would say it wont play any role with our SW.

Lol stove.. I have been forecasting wx for about 5 yrs now on three different blog sites and several different weather forums! I have now even created a very unique weather forum (with your help of course) Ive been watching winter storms evolve for the better part of 10 years via several different numerical and dynamical guidance products and then comparing them to what actually verified.

Previous to the past 5 yrs of forecasting I have also vigorously studied many many different aspects of climatology.. topography.. meteorology.. and oceanography..also for the better part of 10 years! I have now written at least two different theories using my own unique ideas with sound proof/reasoning and math backing them up!

The only reason they are not legitimately published is because I do all this as a hobby and nothing more (The hobby aspect will change next year as I will be getting paid to do this starting next fall) I spend the better part of my time each day studying something to do with meteorology or a related field! I have so much love for the science that it doesnt bother me one bit to scrutinize meteorological guidance models and post forecasts using the very data that I spent hours scrutinizing for free. I also do copious amounts of research and post my findings for free also! Out of all the science ive studied above..I consider myself extremely knowledgeable in the behavior and biases of guidance products.

Im not sure what scientific study name (ology) if any.. represents the art of "daily wx model analyzing" If there is a name for it..I am quite close to being a damn expert at it! I would also say that out of all the above.. those 10 years of analyzing guidance products is also the most important part that goes into a forecast...because even if you know what all the paramaters mean..those same paramaters are useless if you dont know there strong/weak points.. biases...etc etc etc

You cant get a degree in the particular aspect of wx model behavior analyzing but if there was one... I would have a damn "Doctors" degree!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by **Toot** 2012-11-12, 9:36 pm

jmundie wrote:Toot -

The key difference between those patterns is the deep trough over Alaska. Regardless of how big a block is over Greenland, a cold air source is necessary. And when the cold air is stuck in the gulf of Alaska, and Pacfic air is flowing hardcore across the southern tier of states.

You will end up with temps slightly below normal, with some sort of coastal system developing.

Wrong wrong and wrong!! Both of those patterns have the GOA vortex..hellfire can yall not read a 500mb map?

Also a cold core low can make its on cold air source for one..secondly there is already a cold air source

You must have missed the temps nearly twenty degrees below normal around 8-10 days from now in east TN retard

by **Toot** 2012-11-12, 9:39 pm

Adam2014 wrote:The GFS and Euro both have a Nor'easter from hours 150-180. Remember the snow that parts of the Northeast experience last week was not progged until a couple days before. That is what Toot is talking about. If the storm is strong enough, then there is bound to be some cold air thrown in their somewhere.

Adam you seem to be the only person here that understands what im saying. Unless there are some thats not posting

Eastern US Winter Storm possible(Thanksgiving timeframe) - Page 2 3571m2

Eastern US Winter Storm possible(Thanksgiving timeframe) - Page 2 3571m2

by **etnwx** 2012-11-12, 9:49 pm

I follow ya Toot.

by **Jed33** 2012-11-12, 9:58 pm

Lol, I follow you Toot. Just incredibly occupied with other stuff this evening. I can definitely see the potential here.

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-11-12, 9:59 pm

geees toot... i agree with stove bro... calm down before you blow a head gasket ... i would comment on this system... but you proably wouldnt like it anyway... we all want snow man... but seriously, we are still going against climo...and i can read guidance pretty darn good... but i am staying with it as a hobby... lets just hope n pray we get a good winter storm threat for the thanksgiving week timeframe, yall ineast tn stand a better chance than us western side folks...hell, normally for us, our first serious winter storm threat dont come untill after newyears , especially us west tn folks. yikes

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