Eastern US Winter Storm possible(Thanksgiving timeframe)

Lol..the MJO just imitates the local teleconnections bruce but from a farther distance because its measured near the Indian Ocean when the NAO/PNA/AO/EPO is measured right around Nortrh America. Would you rather get your forecasts from the phillipines/India area or from places in NorthAmerica? Thats as simple as I can explain it.. The MJO works but not as good as local teleconnections because they are in constant touch with our weather pattern where the MJO is measured on the other side of the globe.

You thought this thread was dead didnt you?

Its clear there is something big in store towards the last of this month.. say around the 27th-28th!

Hard to tell at this point what the last of the month holds. The AO and NAO spaghetti plots are all over the place. PNA looks to hold slightly negative to near neutral. The flow pattern looks a lot better towards the end of the month vs the next 7 to 10 days.

FWIW I have upped the chances for a significant winter storm somewhere in the E.US to about 85% at this point and juncture

Toot wrote:You thought this thread was dead didnt you?

Its clear there is something big in store towards the last of this month.. say around the 27th-28th!

Just for verification sake - how far past Thanksgiving is it still considered "thanksgiving timeframe"?

I think there's going to be a storm, but I don't know if it will be in the month of November. First weekend of december maybe. But the alaskan vortex is gonna have to relax a bit to get any decent amplification. Otherwise its highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s.

The Thanksgiving timeframe I orginally thought of was 22-26th..Ive admitted I jumped the gun a couple of days early..but I still sniffed it out pretty close 2 weeks ahead of time if it verifies!
If it works out it was simple synoptic pattern recognition.

Looks like the models were trying to flip the NAO/AO to negative too quickly.

snowdog wrote:Looks like the models were trying to flip the NAO/AO to negative too quickly.

They're definately having trouble with the fall/winter transition..ive still got full confidence of the end of the month Noreaster. It pays to look at individual ensembles when the ops are having so much trouble and flip flopping.

Yep, looks like that is indeed the case. Seems like they always rush to drop it too quickly and also bring it up too quickly.

Yeah - it's best in season changing times, to expect things showing up in the long range gfs to be a week or two further in the future than when they first show up. Even with major blocking signals, they take time to develop, and then after the block sets up, it can take time for the corresponding jet stream buckle to occur.

Ensembles are currently all over a big dump of cold and east coast storm around 288. So that would put it towards the very end of November into first weekend of December I suspect.

There should be a decent front going through around thanksgiving though that could yield some upslope snows in the apps.

Excellent post Mundie!

Look how cold the individual members are in wake of the storm

Wow, that's some serious COLD!

Models are now trending away from the southern stream type system (Gulf low) and heading towards a strong lakes cutter type storm with pure unmodified Arctic air behind the cold front. Of course they have been swinging back and forth on this scenario for weeks now and the eventual outcome will be determined by when and how much phasing goes on between the northern and southern streams!

The Strong lakes cutter has alot of climatological support as a major pattern changing storm but north atlantic blocking has been underestimated on the last two snowstorms in the E.US. So that aspect shouldnt be ignored either!

There is still not a whole lot of agreement in guidance models but its getting better and looking more and more like the synoptic snow threat will be in the northern sections of the eastern US with a possible hefty NW Flow event in wake of a possible lakes cutter type system even in the lower elevations.

Like I said tho... this is still not written in stone but climo will argue against synoptic snow in the south (AL/GA/TN/NC/VA) That said..somebody in the eastern US will still get a significant snowfall from this system I think. Im up to about 90% sure on this aspect as of now. Also some very cold air looks to be on the way near the end of the month/first of Dec!!

yeah guidance seems to want to show a strong lakes cutter after thanksgiving... i like the look of the trough coming with it... could be looking at our last severe weather threat around these parts of the country followed by the coldest air of this season thus far... i will keep updated on the severe aspect of this system as times moves on if warranted... but man if only the euro went our a little further, thats some some serious cold coming down at the last time frame of last nites 0z euro...

starting to like prospects of some severe weather after the thanks giving period... around 27th to 26th... 12 gfs has increases the strength of the lakes cutter and triies to develop a secondary in ozarks region.

meaning 27th 28th. instability may be some question... but i have my eye on it... as we get close we can nail down the dynamics and meso stuff... liking the pattern next 2 weeks, looks very active weather wise

"Classic" pattern changing storm being progged by giudabce products meaning synoptic snows for Z OH Valley with wrap around NW flow cold advection snow shr possible in wake of a very strong cold front! I would say its a good possibility a similarpattern will last most of December

This storm will probably end up tanking NAO/AO values with an all out Arctic assault for the first half of December

this may be needed to be added in the severe thread... as strong slp heads into the lower great lakes... the shear looks unbelievable... also todays runs increase instability as dew points near the lower 60 s into just south of ohio river... also to boost is a strong fast streaking lower level jet... the gfs is a little lesser robust but still a nice threat... euro verifies... tornadoes would be a factor... as shear looks directional , least thus far... but time still to look at trends ... as we get closer we can nail down exact meso stuff.

Think it's too early to call for "tornadoes"...I'm not sure we're even going to have an event as the synoptics still look a bit disjointed. This might be because the "event" is still on the far side of truncation. After running through some panels, it looks like the temps/dew points crash as the upper air influences/dynamics arrive...at least in terms of TN. Areas further west might be under the gun, for sure. One thing is for sure, and Bruce nailed it...the wind fields are mightily impressive.

eric, it looks like the euro thus far holds us into the more instability atmosphere longer before the front comes crashing in... vs the gfs... but like you said eric, yeah a bit early to get into details, but i think its worth keeping an eye on

Eric wrote:Think it's too early to call for "tornadoes"...I'm not sure we're even going to have an event as the synoptics still look a bit disjointed. This might be because the "event" is still on the far side of truncation. After running through some panels, it looks like the temps/dew points crash as the upper air influences/dynamics arrive...at least in terms of TN. Areas further west might be under the gun, for sure. One thing is for sure, and Bruce nailed it...the wind fields are mightily impressive.

Yeah, I'd have to agree with all of this, although a more progressive solution like the Euro is more likely to translate potential eastward as opposed the GFS (note that the Euro does not have a truncation, it remains as the same resolution throughout, so it is probably more realistic with its evolution should it trend that way as opposed to the GFS).

00z GFS through 168 hrs looks pretty flat, so unless it amplifies a whole lot in the next few frames, we aren't going to have agreement over a more potent system tonight.

Ruh Roh shaggy...look waht teh GFS and this mornings EURO are showing!! Cant say im surprised as ive been screaming this for weeks now..lol

EURO


GFS

Lol Doc. Where's the Delorian. I want to see what the rest of the winter brings. Looks good Toot. Just a little cooler, and we'd see some flakeage here. It appears models are trending cooler for this too, so maybe just maybe we get an early taste of winter this year.