Eastern US Winter Storm possible(Thanksgiving timeframe)

Several of the 18z Ensemble members showing the cold core retrograding nor'easter. This scenario has been off and on on the ensembles for several days now




This thread is just a possibility thread NOBODY IS CALLLING FOR SNOW RIGHT NOW..its just a possibility somewhere in the eastern US. I hope everybody understands what im talking about now

Stove look at the Euro at hours 150-180 and tell me that it does not exactly look like a Nor'Easter. I don't want to start an argument, but that storm right there has potential.

Adam2014 wrote:Stove look at the Euro at hours 150-180 and tell me that it does not exactly look like a Nor'Easter. I don't want to start an argument, but that storm right there has potential.

Adam, I've never said there was no potential. My beef is with Toot's megalomaniacal crazy pill posting.

Stovepipe wrote:

Adam2014 wrote:Stove look at the Euro at hours 150-180 and tell me that it does not exactly look like a Nor'Easter. I don't want to start an argument, but that storm right there has potential.

Adam, I've never said there was no potential. My beef is with Toot's megalomaniacal crazy pill posting.

Alright I was just making sure, and as a request to some of the bickering. Let us tone it down a little bit. No reason to get in an argument over a storm that hasn't even happened yet.

Wow, ok. I come back to check after an evening of chores, lol here at home, to find this. Geeze, this is pretty ridiculous. You guys do need to chill out. The weather's gonna do whatever the weather's gonna do. I'd hate to see you go stove. Please reconsider.

Ok Ive tried to cleanup the mess/trolling!

Here is the post that started the thread

Toot wrote:Welp folks..its that time of year again and the first truly winter storm is now showing up around Thanksgiving! The local Cold signal Oscillations are tanking negative around this timeframe and the GFS/Euro/CMC ensembles have also keyed in on this possibility!

Most of the individual ensembles have keyed in on a rather robust LPS over the southeastern US! You have heard me mention the winter of 2009/10 as one of the better analogs and this point it looks like the best analog due to the almost identical AO values of last month and October of 2009! It was about the same timeframe in 2009 (end of Nov when the NAO/AO started to tanks..and sure enough the current AO/NAO is also progged to tank towards the last of November!

Here are the graphics to support my post above!

Here is the AO forecast..notice many ensembles are tanking around Turkey day timeframe


The same tanking on the NAO forecast!



Euro ensemble mean..signaling gulf type low with nice blocking in the higher lats!


GFS ensemble mean signaling the same..notice the sexy blocking going on in the higher lattitudes


GFS OP signaling a Miller A



I realize its in la la land but it certainly is a good possibility due to all the individual guidance members agreeing on this. Thats almost unheard of at that long of a range!

Fun Times looks likely IMO!

At this point I still dont know what to expect..I do expect somewhere in the eastern US to end up surprised with some snow!

Now..this is just a possibility thread for somewhere in the eastern US it doesnt mean possible snow in TN. Although I would say the mountains may end up with some.

As for the whole argument that broke out..I will not tolerate someone trolling a busy wx thread.. even if that person is an Admin/Mod.

That rule applies to everyone!

David Aldrich just went on record that just after Tgiving big arctic blast. He feels confident knoxville sees it's first snow by Dec. 7

Jed33 wrote:David Aldrich just went on record that just after Tgiving big arctic blast. He feels confident knoxville sees it's first snow by Dec. 7

I seen that Jed. I think he is correct too

A deeper trough on the 27th is being agreed on my most ensembles. This is a very good sign..this is just a trough of low pressure on many different individual models...verbatim this means there is a good possibility of a winter type storm in the eastern US!

But there is another trough showing up around thanksgiving. Im not sure the models are handling two troughs that close together correctly. It may be a case where the models just end up with one trough around the 24th but who knows at this point. How this/these troughs phase with the polar jet will determine who gets the snow in the eastern US.

Its getting clearer that there are two seperate systems during the last week or so of November. The first Nor'easter type system (which I thought could be the big one) looks to be too far offshore to affect anyone but areas in the extreme NE.

The second one near the end of the month 27th-29th looks more promising to affect a bigger area. Of course still a long ways out but this timeframe still holds much potential and as always.. I will be monitoring it.

Toot wrote:Its getting clearer that there are two seperate systems during the last week or so of November. The first Nor'easter type system (which I thought could be the big one) looks to be too far offshore to affect anyone but areas in the extreme NE.

The second one near the end of the month 27th-29th looks more promising to affect a bigger area. Of course still a long ways out but this timeframe still holds much potential and as always.. I will be monitoring it.

You mean the one that occurs once the alaskan trough flattens out a bit, allowing the jet to buckle a bit more in the eastern US?

Stovepipe wrote:

Adam2014 wrote:Stove look at the Euro at hours 150-180 and tell me that it does not exactly look like a Nor'Easter. I don't want to start an argument, but that storm right there has potential.

Adam, I've never said there was no potential. My beef is with Toot's megalomaniacal crazy pill posting.

This is not new folks. Toot has always been this way. Just starting earlier this year. Last year, the negative NAO was always just around the corner.

I'm really interested in who is going to pay money to read a non degreed hobbiest wishcast the weather.

Toot wrote:
You must have missed the temps nearly twenty degrees below normal around 8-10 days from now in east TN

Now the temps are almost all way above average on that chart. Its wrong now though right?
And this was posted just yesterday.

Mundie stop trolling in a weather thread this thread is about the possibility of winter weather in the eastern US during the last of November! If you have nothing to add then just keep ur mouth shut. And I am looking to hire degreed mets for the new site smartass!

Skills...that's a hotlinked image so it switched to the wrong day... I will fix it when I get home

After reading through this ENTIRE thread, a few things struck me...1) why must discussions about a quasi-winter storm threat that probably won't affect anyone locally become so damned undiplomatic, and 2) why would I expect anything different. Anywho, and I digress, I think Toot might be on to something, but Snowdog, Mundie, and Stove raise valid points as well. The first issue *synoptically speaking* that must be recognized is the 500mb flow. Most of everyone here knows that's where the magic happens. The GFS and it's suite of ensembles both prog a relatively zonal flow until late in the model forecast period. This is backed up by the CPCs AO/NAO/PNA progs that forecast all three teleconnections going negative. That tells me that we're going to see a mostly zonal H5 flow, effectively shutting cooler/colder air northward where it effectively should be residing this time of year based on climatological averages. Secondly, we must again look at other *synoptic features* to verify that the cold air will indeed stay shunted up over Canada. For this we can look at the position of the polar front jet late in the forecast period. According to the GFS/GFSe, it too stays mostly zonal, but wants to turn more meriodinal over the extreme NE the closer one gets to the end of the truncation period. Conversely the Euro portrays a more amplified flow through the forecast period, which could lead to numerous shortwaves along it's track. This type of pattern would be conducive for a few nuisance winter weather events IF the door to Canada was open, but given the position of the PFJ, it's just not happening. Questions we must ask ourselves...which global is correct? Are both suites wrong?

Toot, I think the NE will be ground zero for another "n'oreaster" type of storm, but think it'll be mostly a rain/wind event until the polar front jet turns more north and south, as progged by the globals. If the PFJ stays where it is, those Yankees will be getting more water...something they don't need. As Mundie, Stove, and Snowdog mentioned, there doesn't appear to be much cold air to work with, and while some view it as a small-scale factor, one could infer the nature of the air at play by looking at the synoptic scale.

Thanks for taking the time to make such a great post Eric! I havent looked at any guidance today/tonight since I just now got in from work. So.. I cant comment on any aspects you have pointed out here. Give me a little while and I will try and make a synopsis..although the models seem to be having trouble with the current LW pattern across NA.

jmundie wrote:

This is not new folks. Toot has always been this way. Just starting earlier this year. Last year, the negative NAO was always just around the corner.

I'm really interested in who is going to pay money to read a non degreed hobbiest wishcast the weather.

Normally I would delete this post because its clearly adds nothing to this thread and is nothimg more than pure trolling. Consider this your one and only warning this winter Jmundie!

I admitted defeat on my winter forecast last year several times..but yet you have brought my 2011/2012 winter forecast failure to light once again here in a thread that has nothing to do with the winter of last year! But you fail to mention the ones I got correct in 2009/10 and 2010/11! I also faired pretty well with this last summer of 2012 forecast! But go ahead and ignore those because you only seem to be here to cheerlead when my forecasts fail.

Im not sure why you are even hung up on me and my forecasts since you seem to think that im a total dumbass that dont know how to forecast. Let me ask you..where the hell are your forecasts??? Since you're so much better at it than me??

It looks like I was a couple of days too early on signaling the threat for a significant eastern US Snowstorm. The GFS ensemble local oscillations are pretty much agreeing on a "Kocin" type signal for a significant eastern US snowstrom around the end of November!

Lol, you had the general timeframe right though Toot! Great work as usual.

Thanks Jed!

For those that dont know.. A Kocin signal is when we have a negative NAO pattern and when it starts trending towards positive it highly correlates to a Nor'easter type of system that doesnt go out to sea and rides somewhere along the east coast as a significant to major snowstorm! FYI most Nor'easters begin as gulf type lows!

The 12z EURO has very strong noreaster with the seasons first true NW flow event in wake of the low for east TN. Its out at 240...if it trends westward it will be a major snowstorm in many places!




NW flow event

Great Job Toot!!!!!

Jed33 wrote:Definitely worth watching this threat. I haven't seen the 18z GFS, but apparently, according to Americanwx, the model develops dual blocking!!! splits the PV and displaces it pretty far South. Granted, its 18z, and its just one run, but it gives me encouragement that things may pick up soon here, like we've been talking about.

I have a higher than Normal confidence of a major snowstorm near the 27-29th. Impossible to say where in the eastern US this will affect but I have now officially raised by odds to 80% from 60% for this threads timeframe. I fully expect a Powerful snowstorm somewhere in the eastern US towards the end of the month!

word is toot, that the mjo is going to gt into a favored position for us to provide cold and winter storm threat, around the first week of december... that phaseis 8 1 2 stage, i know your not a big fan of the mjo... but you mite need to start take it to consideration man, its pretty important... i am now a beliver in it