Post Christmas Storm

Toot I respect your outlook, but only one model has been showing a true apps runner and that is the canadian. I hope we can agree to disagree because I think this storm is coming farther west.

Toot wrote:Ok..im going all in

I might recieve some flack for this because it goes against what trusted guidance says but I Just dont buy the crazy things the operational Euro/GFS are doing. I beleive a major nor'easter will affect most of the eastern US but im not buying the low riding up the TN valley and then magically transferring to the east coast..lol that is preposterous and very unlikely IMO!!

I do believe when the energy for this system gets sampled off the west coast by the balloon network that you will see the secondary low completely disappear as a more gradual phase takes place! I see no scientific reason that this wont be a classic Nor'easter via Miller A cyclogenesis. Could I be wrong? Totally could be.. but sensible synoptics and climatology will argue for the track I have below. Even if my forecast dont verify its still going to be a major storm system for some portion of TN.

It should be noted that this will begin as rain in the white area south of the blue area

Toot, your map is pretty much verbatim the 12z UKMET run. The Ukie has been doing pretty good lately on its' accuracy scores. I think your write-up is spot on. I concur with your thinking on this one.

The Canadian is not showing and Apps Runner Adam..it has a classic Miller A and has had one for four runs in a row now. Its also not the only model suggesting this..the UKMET has been consistent with this idea also. But yeah we can agree to disagree on whatever..lol

Toot wrote:The Canadian is not showing and Apps Runner Adam..it has a classic Miller A and has had one for four runs in a row now. Its also not the only model suggesting this..the UKMET has been consistent with this idea also. But yeah we can agree to disagree on whatever..lol

Oh sorry, I had my models mixed up. One thing I will say is you do not usually see a low pressure cut right through middle tennessee or goes just west of the Apps. It could happen but will it.

This is my prediction I am not weather smart so obviously probably dont pay much attention to this.. But this is how I think it will play out with how the Gfs is playing this out.The Gfs has sucked recently and basically all year but usually with these type of snow storms it seems to know the path the storm will take within 3-4 days. And its been somewhat consistent with more of a West North West trend.



X = none -1 inch tops
Grey = dusting to 2 inches
Blue = 1-3 inches
Yellow = 3-6 inches
Orange = 4-8 inches possible 12+

Agree or disagree this is just how I personally see it to play out. Thanks for reading!
Hope I am wrong and it goes south east!!

The 12zeuro is not budging..matter of fact it went north and west of its last run. I hate not having it on my side but I dont buy the double barreled low its trying to sale

The Euro brought the storm back to the West.... Starting to get concerned...

Adam2014 wrote:The Euro brought the storm back to the West.... Starting to get concerned...

still not a bad run for most of west tennessee... hopefully, and i think thissystem will be dynamic enough to pull in its own cold air to help the change over some quicker... we see

The euro digs the sw trough harder and it takes on a negative tilt much earlier. Therefore it pumps heights out ahead of it more vigorously and the storm tracks further north and west. The CMC is a much weaker system and it takes longer to go negative tilt therefore it is a much further east track. I like a middle of the road solution between the euro and cmc which is ultimately the UKMET. The key to where this storm tracks is how fast it ramps up and nothing more. Im hoping there is some sampled data in tonights 0z runs but we may have to wait to 6 or 12z tomorrow..not sure on that.

What the hell is wrong with the PSU ewall site? We have a major storm brewing and that site decides to take the day off!!

Toot do you still think this is going too be an apps runner? The GFS and Euro have come west. I am saving hope for the 0z runs tonight, but after that I will enjoy my Christmas and day after with a cold rain lol.

I for one would love it if we had this system run on the magic train track of the atmosphere and blast the whole state with 4"+... not gonna happen, but I can dream, right?

I do believe that the bullseye will be over US 79. Why? Because I have to supervise third shift the next night lol, and I don't have my tire socks yet!

In all seriousness, I am concerned about this system moving too far west... has not really been a huge problem, but this system will likely be a bit more sensitive than we expect. I hope just not too sensitive.

Adam2014 wrote:Toot do you still think this is going too be an apps runner? The GFS and Euro have come west. I am saving hope for the 0z runs tonight, but after that I will enjoy my Christmas and day after with a cold rain lol.

Adam what the GFS and Euro show are Apps Runners..what the UKMET and CMC show are inland runners or Miller A's. Im personally waiting to get this thing better sampled by weather ballons..when that happens and the euro still shows the same outcome it will be time for me to change my forecast to keep from going down with a sinking ship.

The only reason the GFS/EURO are so far west is because they really explode this storm system into a big deal..when a storm goes through rapid deepening they tend to go poleward.. hence the GFS/EURO models are farther north. Even if the euro/gfs verify everybody will still see cold advection snow showers/light accums. They are showing one hell of a storm but right now I dont buy it

Toot wrote:
Adam what the GFS and Euro show are Apps Runners..what the UKMET and CMC show are inland runners or Miller A's. Im personally waiting to get this thing better sampled by weather ballons..when that happens and the euro still shows the same outcome it will be time for me to change my forecast to keep from going down with a sinking ship.

The only reason the GFS/EURO are so far west is because they really explode this storm system into a big deal..when a storm goes through rapid deepening they tend to go poleward.. hence the GFS/EURO models are farther north. Even if the euro/gfs verify everybody will still see cold advection snow showers/light accums. They are showing one hell of a storm but right now I dont buy it

So you want a weak storm? I believe the term you are looking for is "suppressed" .

andyhb wrote:
So you want a weak storm? I believe the term you are looking for is "suppressed" .

This conversation has nothing to do with what I want and no I wasnt trying to think of the word "suppressed" but thanks for asking

The storm coming along next weekend looks more interesting for now. It's looking more likely than not if you don't live around Dyersburg you aren't going to get any significant snow out of this one.

But the next LP appears to spread 2-4 inches across the state potentially.

MRX likes a significant snowfall event for the higher elevations and a light event for the lower elevations. I would have to agree with them.

Awesome AFD by them today!!

Code:


000
FXUS64 KMRX 222017
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
253 PM EST SAT DEC 22 2012

A MUCH STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THEN PULL TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR
TUESDAY. NORTHERN STREAM JET OVER THE OHIO VALLEY COMBINED WITH A
STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM JET ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL COMBINE
TOO PRODUCE A DOUBLE JET STRUCTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION AROUND THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE AND LEFT EXIT REGION WILL STRENGTHEN THE FRONTO-GENETIC
FORCING WITH FROPA ANTICIPATED BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST BOUNDARY FLOW WILL PRODUCE GOOD OROGRAPHIC
LIFT. NORTHWEST FLOW SNOWFALLS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH SIGNIFICANT
MOUNTAIN SNOWS POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL EASTERN TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. ELSEWHERE...A LIGHT SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME TRAVEL CONCERNS...GENERALLY NORTH AND
CENTRAL FORECAST AREA.

BESIDES THE RAIN/SNOW CONCERNS...FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...A 60-65KT
BOUNDARY LAYER JET WILL PRODUCE HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW A GOOD VERTICAL PROFILE FOR
MOUNTAIN WAVE HIGH WINDS FOR THE FOOTHILLS...BUT A MARGINAL HIGH
WIND WARNING EVENT IS POSSIBLE.



Saw the HPC is using a blend of the 12z Euro/Ukie. Interesting that they are basically throwing out the NAM/GFS.

Yesterday I thought that a Lakes Cutter scenario was off the table but maybe not.

The 50/50 low/confluence over eastern Canada is being modeled weaker and in some runs non existent.

Last night's 0z GFS run still had decent confluence in eastern Canada and it forced the 500mb low to not make it further north than the Kentucky border.

Today's 18z run showed no confluence at all and the 500 mb cut up to Ohio and the Lakes.

This is an important feature to watch as more data gets sampled and it could have a huge implication especially for the western half of Tennessee. It seems like this low is wrapping up more now like past runs a couple of days ago.

It seems like the models and especially the GFS like to string out energy in the medium range compared to the more amplified solutions in the longer range only to come back to those stronger predictions in the short term.

But either way it looks like another round of upslope flow is on the way for the mountains and all of East TN as the system passes.

Well the 00z GFS was not too bad overall. It came east a bit. A few more subtle moves eastward and MiddleTN is back in the game. Also it almost closes off the ULL with 2 contours. A great run for Memphis. Whats the old saying...don't want to be in the bullseye yet.

Well its time to regroup on my forecast... the members of guidance that was more south and east have caved in tonight. Im sure the more sampled data is what caused this shift..just goes to show how hard it is to bet against the euro. I will be working late tonight on a general graphic for the whole eastern US plus a more detailed graphic for our region centered on the state of TN. Im not sure I ever made a forecast for another system with such an odd track for this time of year..this is not your normal track for late December and will make for a difficult forecast..should be fun though

i agree with you toot... odd look to this track man... i was personally hoping for a apps runner... tomorrow we will should have a better idea of what the solution is, as the system should be coming on the coast in earnest out west

strange ... the gfs, cmc, ukemet... seem to be pretty much in the ball park with each other now... give or take a few miles on each model... now the euro throws us a curveball... like it misses the phase or it closes off to early and heads more nw... could this now be the outlier... or is it sniffing something out early.

tennessee storm09 wrote:i agree with you toot... odd look to this track man... i was personally hoping for a apps runner... tomorrow we will should have a better idea of what the solution is, as the system should be coming on the coast in earnest out west

On second thought..im gonna wait to get all of tomorrows guidance runs in before doing another full forecast. Some of the GFS ensemble members are still pretty far to the east. Then the euro comes in much further to the west. I dont think it would be wise of me to do another forecast graphic right now as there is still alot of disagreement among guidance which could end up failing any forecast right now. In other words I dont know what the hell to expect from this one

Toot, what are the euro ensembles looking like for the most part. I'm thinking tommorow should give us a better grasp, but sometimes storms take last minute moves I could see the low still going west app, almost due north and being a lakes cutter or still going just east of the apps. I don't see it going straight to sea but with me saying that it's possible. I still think we have chance for somebody in tennessee to get a accum snow but at this point its a crapshoot. Personally right now I think eastern ark southern missouri and western ky are odds on favorites for good snows but it may still change. I still think that low could very well move more east, the bullseye alot of times is not the place to be 3-4 days out.