January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

There goes Tom in his ice mobile, he only gets to use it once every 3 year cad event

As far as 4-5 inch of snow. Not going to happen! Just watch for the ice that's it!

Snowfacial wrote:Latest run of the nam ups the moisture for the border area tn and va...is there no shot that some place in that area could remain all snow? Seems like we have good models support for .40-.70 I that area...but sleet is expected to eat into those numbers. The weenie in me is looking for 4-5 inch snow where there appears very little upside for a storm like this

The only person posting here whom may get much snow is likely 1234 in SW Virginia.

Yeah, I think you gotta get up to at least abingdon, va and N to get snow. Thefamous, or infamous, lol Hungry Mother State Park (cracks me up everytime, lol) prob. Be a good place to be for snow.

One thing that I want to point out for my immediate area, the NAM has been consistent with showing a 30kt southeasterly wind at around 925mb directly over the mountains. If this is true, then there could be some downsloping effects in the areas very close to the mountains. I’m not necessarily saying that is going to happen, but it is a possibility. If that happens, then areas near the mountains could see less precipitation and slightly warmer temperatures. This would be less of a problem for areas farther away from the mountains. Just something to consider.

John1122 wrote:

Snowfacial wrote:Latest run of the nam ups the moisture for the border area tn and va...is there no shot that some place in that area could remain all snow? Seems like we have good models support for .40-.70 I that area...but sleet is expected to eat into those numbers. The weenie in me is looking for 4-5 inch snow where there appears very little upside for a storm like this

The only person posting here whom may get much snow is likely 1234 in SW Virginia.

I hope! 0z NAM has the strip of heavier QPF right on the border of TN/KY/VA. It spits out .62 at KTRI and .29 at KTYS. I do think that somebody in the NC/TN mountains might eek out 4-5 inches.

John1122 wrote:The precip probably starts in Tennessee around midnight down Adam's way. Probably get to morristown around 5-6 am. Tri around 8.

I am still not at freezing. I am at 32.6. I am so sick of freezing rain and over running events.

This does a decent job of illustrating what I mentioned in my last post. Notice the maximized southeasterly wind area near Greene County.

Math/Met wrote:This does a decent job of illustrating what I mentioned in my last post. Notice the maximized southeasterly wind area near Greene County.

The famous Greene County screw zone!

If you asked me for my uneducated opinion, I would tell you that if the 0z NAM verifies, this won't be a big deal at all for the southern valley from roughly Knoxville southward.

It looks as if the precip doesn't really fill in for these areas until hr 18, and according to the modeled soundings at that time, the surface has already warmed above freezing.

Again, I could very well be wrong here, as I'm very inexperienced and still trying to learn this whole ice thing lol, but that's just what I took from it.

Station: TRI Lat: 36.48 Lon: -82.40 Elev: 474 Closest grid pt: 15.1 km.
Initialization Time: 13-01-25 0000 UTC
PARAMETER/TIME 000 006 012 018 024 030 036 042 048
------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
DAY / HOUR 25/00 25/06 25/12 25/18 26/00 26/06 26/12 26/18 27/00
------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
TEMPS
2 M (F) 22 20 22 27 31 29 23 34 29
850 MB (C) -10 -6 -2 0 -1 0 0 0 1
700 MB (C) -6 -3 -4 -1 -2 -1 1 -1 -1
500 MB (C) -16 -19 -18 -17 -17 -16 -17 -17 -19
1000-500 THCK 537 540 541 545 546 546 546 546 545

MOISTURE
2 M DEW POINT (F) 5 10 11 24 30 28 22 23 24
850 MB DP(C)/RH -30/18 -28/15 -9/58 0/99 -1/99 -10/45 -20/20 -18/25 -25/12
700 MB DP(C)/RH -25/20 -19/28 -5/94 -1/99 -16/32 -43/03 -24/13 -18/25 -23/18
500 MB DP(C)/RH -21/67 -22/72 -27/44 -21/69 -37/17 -34/20 -35/19 -30/31 -25/61
PRCPABLE WTR (IN) 0.23 0.22 0.49 0.74 0.40 0.20 0.19 0.23 0.23
CONV PRECIP (IN) 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
TOTAL PRECIP (IN) 0.00 0.00 0.33 0.17 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00

Someone correct me if I am wrong, but this looks like almost a 1/2" of ice for NE TN. (00Z NAM)

orangeblood1985 wrote:
The famous Greene County screw zone!

Maybe, I'm just throwing out a possibility if some of the models are correct in showing that southeasterly flow at 925mb. It's certainly happened before here.

Not really a prediction, just something to watch.

Math/Met wrote:

orangeblood1985 wrote:
The famous Greene County screw zone!

Maybe, I'm just throwing out a possibility if some of the models are correct in showing that southeasterly flow at 925mb. It's certainly happened before here.

Not really a prediction, just something to watch.

Seems like we typically have to deal with either downsloping or a warm nose. Greene County seems to always be the "battleground" county when it comes to precip type in Northeast TN. We changed over to sleet/rain last week when Knox and Morristown were still reporting heavy snow.

I can say that i'am to the nw of Nashville where the NAM is putting the heavy precip band. The temp dropped to 26 around 7:30pm and now setting at 29 at 9:45pm! With a se wind at 7mph. So it may end up being just a cold rain for me if the precip forms later than predicted.

The precip is definitely later than predicted. I'm starting to have my doubts about this system. Esp. For w of nashville. Huge bust potential though here in E TN. Not saying its a no go, but if its gonna get here by the start times, its gonna have to get going soon. Unless, of course it developes overhead, I guess, lol.

Let me clarify, i'm talking about start time busts more than the event, although, I suppose it would be possible to have a total flop. Not likely though.

Jedd33 just looking at radar and looks like things may get going around Memphis/Jackson area here soon!

Looks like the echo's are running along interstate 40. We'll see!

Just noticed MRX changed my ice accum from less than .10 to .10 - .30

MRX also lowered my low of 25 to 23. Nothing like nowcasting! LOL. [Shakes head].

How accurate is the RUC Model?

Temps are running way colder here than forecast. Currently 17 here. My predicted low was 23.

NAM went north with it's precip stripe, GFS was actually heaviest right along 1-40. All show approaching .5 inches.

Precip is definitely lagging as of now. It should be approaching Nashville but so far not much is happening anywhere.

John will it matter what surface temps are? Kind of a newbie question but as I understand we can bank on tri and most of upper east tn being below freezing at the surface. If temps are lower then expected at the surface could one expect that to playa role with the warm air layer that's also pushing in with this system?

Snowfacial wrote:John will it matter what surface temps are? Kind of a newbie question but as I understand we can bank on tri and most of upper east tn being below freezing at the surface. If temps are lower then expected at the surface could one expect that to playa role with the warm air layer that's also pushing in with this system?

The lower you start the tougher it will be to get you above freezing eventually. Not saying it won't happen but it may extend the time it takes. It also primes the heck out of the ground so everything immediately freezes on contact with it. Earlier JKL was noting the ground was so cold in their CWA that ice would even stick to treated roads.

Yeah ground is froze solid in places around here

Temps in middle Tennessee look to be a problem my late prediction is that most of middle Tennessee gets less then .10 of ice before switching over only very far north eastern middle Tennessee gets over .10. Thats just the way I see it now. Precip looks nice atm its blossoming somewhat so thats the only thing thats good is we might be able to squeeze a little precip before the warmth hits. Definitely more of a bust from what we was previously expecting (.10-.20). I'm starting to wonder if we might end up above freezing before sunrise (ofc that might be worrying a little to much). Temps are near 30 in all of middle Tennessee currently. Eastern Tennessee looks worse off then us (and they did earlier too so nothing new there).
My prediction is...
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