Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

by **Toot** 2013-03-02, 11:28 pm

Lol..this is enough to make me sick..100 miles to my north and east is going to get clobbered with a possible dusting here
lol!

by **Jscentraltn** 2013-03-02, 11:42 pm

Yeah! It sucks. like you said the runs in the morning may be better I really wanted this to play out for us! I have had about 3/4 in of snow all winter. This was the last chance for the season! smoke

by **connerconner** 2013-03-03, 1:23 am

Welp guys.... The 00z went SUPER SOUTH.. looks like we're back in the ballgame!

March 5-6th Winter Storm - Page 3 Usahgt500mb096u

by **John1122** 2013-03-03, 1:27 am

That definitely puts North Carolina in a good spot.

by **Toot** 2013-03-03, 2:07 am

We are just in a not so good spot where a transfer of energy takes place at the surface. The Euro definately looks better for east TN but this is a tricky system and one that I havent had any kind of track experience with. It will be very interesting to see how it plays out

by **connerconner** 2013-03-03, 2:09 am

by **Coach B** 2013-03-03, 8:17 am

Boy, that map hates middle TN. Smile

Look at that 90 degree bend in accums just to avoid the Nashville area.

by **weathertree4u** 2013-03-03, 9:13 am

Coach B wrote:Boy, that map hates middle TN. Look at that 90 degree bend in accums just to avoid the Nashville area.

One of these years we will be in the bullseye, just like the Winters from childhood of the late 1970's where we had snow on the ground reliably every Winter; I am over this Winter though, onto Spring 2013 - then we can start discussing patterns for the 2013/2014 Winter Season Smile

by **Toot** 2013-03-03, 9:40 am

If the euro and its ensembles are correct I think parts of TN may be in the ballgame here with the deformation band.

Notice the deform band getting well south into parts of western/middle TN..it scoots across most of the state like this
March 5-6th Winter Storm - Page 3 5eubv7

March 5-6th Winter Storm - Page 3 5eubv7

by **Grandpa Nasty** 2013-03-03, 3:14 pm

Well damn. I just logged in on my phone and no updates. Word around here from a few good sources says Chattanooga area looks like temps wayyyy too warm, prob mid 50s but NE of Knoxville could be borderline with either heavy rain or big, fat, juicy snow flakes coming. Down with as much as 6 inches of wet snow before melting off in 24 hours or so.

down at about a 5 to 1 ratios with thunder and lightning.

by **John1122** 2013-03-03, 5:15 pm

Wow at my afternoon updated forecast for Tuesday night/Wednesday

Tuesday Night Snow showers. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 28. West wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Wednesday Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

80% Thundersnow I can handle!

by **Toot** 2013-03-03, 7:29 pm

I would have to agree with the MRX afd..light accums could be a good bet Plateau and east/I-40 and North.

MRX

Code:: FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO STEEPEN THE LAPSE RATES. CAPES OF 100-150 J/KG WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING SLOWLY WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY CHANGED TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING. ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY...INCREASING NORTHWEST BOUNDARLY LAYER FLOW WILL PRODUCE GOOD OROGRAPHIC/NORTHWEST FLOW SNOWFALL INTO THE MOUNTAINS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN DIMINISHING WEDENSDAY NIGHT. HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FAR EASTERN TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...SUCH AS HIGH KNOB. A WINTER STORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY ALSO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE PLATEAU...SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY.

by **connerconner** 2013-03-03, 9:34 pm

latest nam!

March 5-6th Winter Storm - Page 3 00znam850mbTSLPp06048

by **dahrkdaiz** 2013-03-03, 9:48 pm

I hate to be optimistic, I do remember the last ULL that we got, the NAM was the big winner on that one.

by **John1122** 2013-03-04, 2:12 am

Models went pretty far North tonight. We still get some backside snow but it doesn't bomb NC/VA quite like before.

by **Snowflake** 2013-03-04, 8:10 am

It will be interesting to see how this plays out. John, looks like you're under a Winter Storm Watch at this point.

by **SnowManiac** 2013-03-04, 10:29 am

Has anyone seen the 12z nam today?? It looks further west than the 0z run does. And don't worry about the north trend shown on the gfs. DT says that this is due to a fake piece of energy being pulled up from the low that hits the blocking mechanism in place, and causes the LP to scoot further northward. Because it is fake, it will not happen that way.

by **Jed33** 2013-03-04, 1:08 pm

Latest WRF looks better than I thought it would actually. Shows a fair amount of light snow wraping around. Guess we'll have to wait and see.

by **John1122** 2013-03-04, 3:38 pm

I hope the heavy snow reaches down to me. The forecast for me says heavy snow possible all day Wednesday. But also mentions the above 2500 feet, which is a bit above me.

by **John1122** 2013-03-04, 4:04 pm

In the afternoon update MRX said they were leaving the WSW up as there was a chance the Plateau would get warning level snow, but that they'd likely only issue a WWA.

by **John1122** 2013-03-04, 4:09 pm

Updated forecast.

Tuesday Night: Rain showers or snow showers in the evening... Then snow showers after midnight. Snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible...especially over the higher elevations. Lows in the upper 20s. West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 30 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.

Wednesday: Cloudy with snow showers likely. Brisk. Additional snow accumulation possible. Highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Northwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 60 percent.

by **Toot** 2013-03-04, 7:59 pm

I personally think this event will over perform here in northern parts of east TN and especially in the higher elevations. It just has backlashed look to it.
March 5-6th Winter Storm - Page 3 2013030418_EUS_NAM_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_045

March 5-6th Winter Storm - Page 3 2013030418_EUS_NAM_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_045

It certainly wouldnt surprise me to see a couple inches even here in the northern valley

by **John1122** 2013-03-04, 8:26 pm

I expect a winter storm warning for the Eastern Mtns and SWVA above 2500 feet for 3-8 inches. A WWA for the Plateau and counties that border Virginia for 1-4. Probably an SPS for the rest for 1/2-2 inches.

by **Toot** 2013-03-04, 8:37 pm

Some nice looking graphics from the NAM tonight brrrm!

March 5-6th Winter Storm - Page 3 Raw1sp

by **Jed33** 2013-03-04, 8:43 pm

I think we could see a little bit here too Toot. This is certainly a weird system. I saw on amwx where the huge atlantic storm is pulling moisture somehow off the Pacific today. Dont think ive ever seen anything like that before. Also makes me wondwr if this is what has screwed up the blocking that we have in the Atlantic.

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