Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Looks like that ridge means business! Just glad it's in the N Atlantic and not the south atlantic. Don't want a "Death Ridge" to set up, even though I'm sure it will sooner than later.

Toot wrote:Mid level ridge of high pressure becoming pretty impressive in northern Atlantic. Feature is currently dominating the longwave weather pattern!

How does this effect our weather now and down the road?

VFL wrote:

How does this effect our weather now and down the road?

Its subtropical in nature and needs to be watched as to how it evolves and to where it moves. Death ridges will become an issue at our latitude over the next couple of months and where they setup will likely be key to a warmer or cooler than normal summer. This impressive high pressure system is currently causing a persistent trough off the east coast which is allowing another ridge to build in over our area. This will cause warm to even hot weather as long as the massive ridge stays put in this position there in the north atlantic! Where its located and how its orientated will likley have major implications on our weather pattern for the next several weeks.

The pattern has changed and a summer like ridge looks to replace the troughiness in the east. Saving grace could be a cuttoff low!

If the cutoff low dont happen you will likely see me posting this in the near future..lol!

Massive mile wide tornado being reported near Cleburne Tx.

Dyersburg Weather wrote:Massive mile wide tornado being reported near Cleburne Tx.

Left turner!!

unfortunetly, fatalities now being reported in hood co, texas...

The longwave weeather pattern is in the process of switching from a winter/sping type pattern into a summer type pattern! Subtropical ridges and maybe even death ridges will take the place of troughiness in the east for the next month or so! This will mean warm to hot weather for last of may and on into june! Would expect this period to average above normal in the eastern US!

A look at high temps this coming Tuesday

Nice little cluster thunderstorm popped on the plateau moving eastward!

Hearing some loud rumbers of thunder off in the distance

Had some major league heavy rains, hail and winds this evening. Flash flooding around the area.

Weak low pressure area over Memphis should move this way overnight with some good rains in SE/E Tenn. They are saying 1.5 or more with heating of the day, today. Severe weather is always possible but with this system should be more on the Isolated side. But keep and eye on the sky just in case. But mostly likely reaching E and NE Tenn late evening and over night.

windstorm wrote:Weak low pressure area over Memphis should move this way overnight with some good rains in SE/E Tenn. They are saying 1.5 or more with heating of the day, today. Severe weather is always possible but with this system should be more on the Isolated side. But keep and eye on the sky just in case. But mostly likely reaching E and NE Tenn late evening and over night.

Hoping the bulk of it holds off til later tonight..have an outdoor bluegrass festival going on this evening!

Rain just now entering Chattanooga @ 6:30.. Maybe it will hold off long enough.

Here is some nerdy severe weather stuff if you're into that kind of thing

If you hadnt noticed..the SPC (Storm prediction center) has issued a moderate risk for severe thunderstorms in the plains states as we head towards dark tonight and tomorrow. Tornados are expected due to such favorable atmospheric conditions. Without getting too deep and technical and making things much harder to understand.. below is two ugly looking graphics from the latest run of the 4km nam that will confirm this severe weather threat.

On the left is 0-3km SRH (Storm relative helicity) in simple terms this is a way of measuring the twisting and turning of air from way up high all the way down near the ground and these values are extremely high! You normally get rotating supercell development with values of 3 to 500..here we have values of 6 to 800!!

On the right is CAPE (convective available potential energy) which is basically a measurement of atmospheric instability gathered mostly from temperature differences between two different airmasses whether that be up high or at the surface. Anyways..you normally only need around 2 to 3000j/kg for the fireworks to go off! Here we have values of 5000 or more!! These paramaters are off the charts and are very supportive of significant severe weather out in the plains states tonight and tomorrow.

Hey Toot. Where can I find these maps at for my reading pleasure? Thanks

Those particular images are weatherbell premium graphics which you have to pay for. I pay a little less than $200 a year for access to those graphics and a few meteorologist blogs which I rarely ever read..the graphics alone are worth the money to me. If you dont want to spend any money you can find free graphics that will essentially show pretty much the same thing but at a lower resolution and just not as detailed. Twisterdata has a pretty good graphics section that is free but I dont think they do anything with the hi res models WRF/4km NAM/NMM/ARW but those graphics are available for free too but at another site.

I used to have to jumble through 100's of bookmarks for different models and paramaters for graphics and it took alot of my time. I would dig through those bookmarks for hours trying to find what I was looking for. Now I just pay for it and its all in one place. As far as model graphics go.. wxbell has the biggest selection of models with the best graphics out there IMO.

Monster wedge Tornado in Wichita, KS just a while ago..shot of actual tornado with radar image along side for comparison.

From MEG

THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD TEMPORARILY REBUILD OVER THE MID SOUTH
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BRINGING A LULL IN ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
AS THE CAPPING INVERSION STRENGTHENS AND INHIBITS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. SKIES SHOULD SCATTER OUT WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH CONTINUED HUMID
CONDITIONS AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN NEAR 70 DEGREES. A THIRD AND
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MID SOUTH BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...THE CAPPING INVERSION
WILL BEGIN TO ERODE ALLOWING FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN
MODERATELY UNSTABLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SBCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 1500-2500 J/KG...LI/S -6C TO -10C...AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7.0 C/KM. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AS A 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL
JET OVERSPREADS THE AREA ALONG WITH AROUND 50 KTS OF MID LEVEL
FLOW. INITIAL THUNDERSTORM MODE SHOULD BE A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND
BOWING LINE SEGMENTS EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO AN EXPANSIVE QUASI-
LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (QLCS). THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST
EARLY IN THE EVENT MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT
DEVELOP. ANY TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS.

Moore, Oklahoma is about to be hammered by a possible two-mile wide tornado.

chaser2b wrote:Moore, Oklahoma is about to be hammered by a possible two-mile wide tornado.

Man..that was a monster!

Watching live steam on kfor. Saying worst tornado in the history of the world. Three times worse than May 3 1999.

The debris ball on radar was insane!

Extreme west TN is in the 30% area in the day 2. After all the tornadoes with this system..would hate to be in the Arklatex region tomorrow

My god..look at this thing!