Spring wx discussion 2013 edition
+12
etnwx
Dyersburg Weather
Grandpa Nasty
Jscentraltn
jmundie
snowdog
VFL
Jed33
John1122
tennessee storm09
windstorm
Toot
16 posters
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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition
Low of 30 today. No snow. Sun out big time but that North wind has a little bit to it. Not bad, should make lower to mid 50's with lows tonight in the 20's.
windstorm- Member
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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition
Lol at the WRF for tomorrow night into Fri. It says winter will not give up without another fight. MRX not really buying it though. Guess we'll see. They don't buy very much any way though, lol
Jed33- Admin
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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition
While the threat for a major winter storm in the eastern united states has dwindled over the past couple of days there is still not much in the way of sustained spring weather likely. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is once again forecast to go extremely negative with the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) also forecast to remain in the negative category.
This will likely mean more of the same (cooler weather with an occasional warm shot) but all this high latitude blocking tends to make storms deepen rather quickly. This will imply that the potential for strong winterlike storm systems are still there but the seasonal jet stream has lifted northward somewhat..meaning the genreral storm track will also move northward. This opens up the door for possible severe weather outbreaks especially as we get closer to and on into April.
For now I would enjoy the cool weather because it wont be long before we are talking about those dreaded subtropical death ridges from hell!! Meanwhile.. get out an extra blanket tonight because its gonna be a cold one for March standards. Here is a look at overnight nocturnal lows progged by the 4 kilometer NAM
This will likely mean more of the same (cooler weather with an occasional warm shot) but all this high latitude blocking tends to make storms deepen rather quickly. This will imply that the potential for strong winterlike storm systems are still there but the seasonal jet stream has lifted northward somewhat..meaning the genreral storm track will also move northward. This opens up the door for possible severe weather outbreaks especially as we get closer to and on into April.
For now I would enjoy the cool weather because it wont be long before we are talking about those dreaded subtropical death ridges from hell!! Meanwhile.. get out an extra blanket tonight because its gonna be a cold one for March standards. Here is a look at overnight nocturnal lows progged by the 4 kilometer NAM
Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition
There were a few flurries dancing around in downtown Nashville this morning. Very few, but they were there.
snowdog- Winter Specialist
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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition
There were some who were calling for a very cold start to March. Looks like that verified.
snowdog- Winter Specialist
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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition
We had snow flurries all day today. Strong winds and the temp stayed in the low 30s. Just an all around January kind of day instead of March.
John1122- Winter Specialist
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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition
Clouded back up a while ago and we're getting more light snow/flurries floating around out there.
John1122- Winter Specialist
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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition
Nope, I see it Toot. MRX is not very optimistic, but I think we may in for a little surprise tnite, at least in some areas.
Jed33- Admin
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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition
It's 36 and snowing in Crossville. Maybe that batch of moisture in Kentucky aiming this way will give us a dusting or so.
John1122- Winter Specialist
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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition
Unless it happened overnight, I didn't see any snow, or even flurries. Did anything fall up your way John?
Jed33- Admin
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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition
My son had a PeeWee 7 little league scrimmage last night and it was cooold out there. Finished up the scrimmage with a light sleet falling. Beautiful outside today though. Warming up quickly.
snowdog- Winter Specialist
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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition
Wow at the day 6/7 euro
jmundie- Winter Specialist
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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition
It's shown snow for us 3-4 runs in a row now. 12z today was a major storm. Sub 1000mb low along the Gulf. Record breaking -ao.
John1122- Winter Specialist
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John1122- Winter Specialist
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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition
Lol, WOW!!
Jed33- Admin
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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition
GFS also has the sytem, a bit further north. Tracks it from Arkansas, across to off the SC coast.
John1122- Winter Specialist
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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition
John1122 wrote:It's shown snow for us 3-4 runs in a row now. 12z today was a major storm. Sub 1000mb low along the Gulf. Record breaking -ao.
The ensemble Arctic oscillation forecast is insane!
Clustered agreement below -5
Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition
GFS is creeping closer and closer.
John1122- Winter Specialist
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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition
And for good measure 30 hours after that last panel.
John1122- Winter Specialist
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John1122- Winter Specialist
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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition
And round 2.
John1122- Winter Specialist
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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition
Euro still looks good from what I can see of it. Good temps and column moist from 700-850.
John1122- Winter Specialist
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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition
JKL inexplicably lying in their AFD this morning.
The last sentence is, confusing, poorly worded and a lie. Model consistency is amazingly high right now with the Euro, GFS, and GGEM all very similar for multiple runs in a row. I'd be willing to wager they're not willing to mention what it actually shows due to the time of year it currently is.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY...AN INTERESTING SET UP
TAKES SHAPE AS SHORTWAVE OVER THE FRONT RANGE DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO
THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND A VIGOROUS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND
MOVES EAST NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP INTO KENTUCKY FROM THE
SOUTH. MODEL CONSISTENCY IS LOW AND DO NOT HANDLE THE SOLUTION FOR
THIS SET UP BUT WILL NEED MONITORED ON DEVELOPMENT IN THE MODELS.
The last sentence is, confusing, poorly worded and a lie. Model consistency is amazingly high right now with the Euro, GFS, and GGEM all very similar for multiple runs in a row. I'd be willing to wager they're not willing to mention what it actually shows due to the time of year it currently is.
John1122- Winter Specialist
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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition
1987 was the last time I remember a significant snow this late in the year. Got around a foot on April 2nd 1987
Meanwhile..The DGEX is having fun with areas north of I-40 statewide
This is the 0z euro ensemble control run
Meanwhile..The DGEX is having fun with areas north of I-40 statewide
This is the 0z euro ensemble control run
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