Winter Wx Discussion 2013/14

WWA for N plateau and extreme N valley, but MRX says no south of Sullivan and Hawkins. I might could understand about Morristown south but leaving out the smokies in a winter event is bizzare to my inexperienced self. Maybe someone could shed some light on how this could happen. Btw I still expect snow here, even though MRX doesn't guess we'll see

Something that has my interest is the radar returns that are showing up to our west and sw. The models kept the 2 peaces of energy seprate. But it looks like the two are coming together. Could end up being state wide coverage. Very interesting.            

I feel an upset coming on for MRX..they say its gonna be too warm in the smokies. I could be wrong but I dont think so scooter..lol Also I think their amounts for the plateau are too light and im not buying much in the way with the freezing rain there talking about. I like 2-5 on the plateau and 1 to 2 in the Northern valley with a dusting possible around Knoxvegas. Im going all in now..here's my chips!

Toot wrote:I feel an upset coming on for MRX..they say its gonna be too warm in the smokies. I could be wrong but I dont think so scooter..lol Also I think their amounts for the plateau are too light and im not buying much in the way with the freezing rain there talking about. I like 2-5 on the plateau and 1 to 2 in the Northern valley with a dusting possible around Knoxvegas. Im going all in now..here's my chips!

I'm with you Toot! I don't get the warm tongue they are mentioning for the smokies. If there is a warm tongue there, there is a warm tongue for the rest of the mtns too including the plateau I would figure. One thing that has me reluctant to say we could get something here is that it is currently 44 so need to drop way down to get to where we need to be, but maybe the low will pull in enough cold air

Robust north winds dropped my temp like a rock as dark approached. Went from 45 to 35 very quickly this evening. Sitting at 35 now. JKL is not on the freezing rain bandwagon, MRX is all in for it. Very different forecasts for areas 1 mile apart. JKL has 29 degrees with snow, heavy at times. MRX has 27 with freezing rain .1-.3 inches. That's a pretty big difference for neighboring WFO's for their bordering areas.

Low level temps are crashing rapidly and precip hasnt even arrived yet! Precip will cool the column that much quicker when it arrives. If it dont start out frozen there may be a short period of rain to begin but it should VERY quickly turn to snow me thinks

Yeah I can attest to the drop in temps as it was 47 when I came home and it got extremely foggy for a couple hrs. The fog was very localized here in Morristown, when my wife came home she said it was virtually impossible to see a thing. She couldn't even see the lines on the road. Thickest fog in awhile, but down off the ridge, toward town, no fog. It was sandwiched btwn about 1350-1500 ft. (My house is at 1452 ft). Now, no fog, but the temp is down to 40 so at least going in the right direction. Appears to be a light NW wind now here so I guess that's what pushed out the fog

So is the mountains going to see any action with this? Greene, cocke, seiverville?

Soundings for me show 850s above freezing but it falls to freezing quickly below that, that may spell sleet. This is around 1 am when precip will probably be arriving. By 5-6 am the entire column is supportive of snow.

It's extremely fogging in Parrottsville but no wind.

John1122 wrote:Soundings for me show 850s above freezing but it falls to freezing quickly below that, that may spell sleet. This is around 1 am when precip will probably be arriving. By 5-6 am the entire column is supportive of snow.

850s are definately lagging westward by a 100 miles or so compared to 925mb and surface temps. I bet they crash a little faster than soundings suggest tho as storm center/forcing draws closer

I wish Erwin could get in on some winter weather tonight, but MRX is still putting a damper on my party!!

Neals wrote:So is the mountains going to see any action with this? Greene, cocke, seiverville?

I expect very light accumulations dusting -.5 inch in Newport and Sevierville area. The higher terrain of the mountain counties will do a little better but the big winner here will be the plateau where I wouldnt be surprised to here of some 6 inch amounts.

I think the mountains from Sevier north will see something, but MRX didn't earlier. I can't imagine any part of the plateau or valley getting snow and mountains that go up over 6k feet not getting it. That just doesn't make since unless the cold was to just sink down into the valley and not make it to the mtns. Also along this line of thinking, since the plateau only goes up to roughly 3700ft. max, and the Apps go up over 6k ft, shouldn't the cold air from the NW make it right there without being blocked? Plateau is lower, so it wouldn't block CAA right? I may be wrong here, but MRX reasoning just doesn't seem right here

I am reading that some of the latest model runs have much more liquid.. Anybody have any update?

Jed33 wrote:I think the mountains from Sevier north will see something, but MRX didn't earlier. I can't imagine any part of the plateau or valley getting snow and mountains that go up over 6k feet not getting it. That just doesn't make since unless the cold was to just sink down into the valley and not make it to the mtns. Also along this line of thinking, since the plateau only goes up to roughly 3700ft. max, and the Apps go up over 6k ft, shouldn't the cold air from the NW make it right there without being blocked? Plateau is lower, so it wouldn't block CAA right? I may be wrong here, but MRX reasoning just doesn't seem right here

In this setup the higher you are the warmer the temp will be on the ground

Anybody wanna guess how much metro Davidson will get? Just wondering...

850 is about 5000 feet in elevation. So right around there, the temps will be above freezing. It actually may snow at LeConte, not looked at the soundings to see how high up the freezing line is located.

By 7 am the 850 0c line is lined up from the Tri-Cities down to Knox to Nooga or so.

Pman1618 wrote:Anybody wanna guess how much metro Davidson will get? Just wondering...

You've got the cold but the trajectory of the moisture is not favorable of a ton for Nashville, but I could see you guys approaching an inch if you don't have much sleet mixing.

If these latest runs verify, areas near Cookeville could be up for more than a WWA, I wouldnt be surprised to see that upgraded.

OHX just updated that they may upgrade their Eastern and Southern areas to a Winter Storm Warning.

Sleeting and snowing south of Nashville. Per twitter.

How much longer does the precip last from 7 when the freezing line reaches valley from Knox to Tri? I am hoping for enough to see here. A dusting would be nice that would be the third time this year I've seen some form of accum. Had one dusting around the middle of Nov, the Thanksgiving inch, and if this happens then I guess we'll see. Hard to argue with what we've had here thus far I know some think winter's over after this week, but those people are SADLY mistaken. Winter hasn't even begun yet haha. I think a good ole fashioned winter is setting up we'll see, but I'm going all in on the winter as a whole. There may be some really warm days, but I think most will be very happy with what the winter has brought them by the end of March first of April.

Also NE. Alabama is seeing sleet as well. Anyone surprised at this?

Am hoping for an upgrade to WSW here in Cookeville. Does anyone know when OHX will offer an update?