The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

MRX bringing the usual boring AFD, they just sped through the afternoon and basically said systems don't phase, but backside lift on the shortwave looks decent enough to expect light snow accumulations over the area. Didn't elaborate much at all just a very vague AFD, lol. Shouldn't expect anything else though, right, after all it is MRX.

Sounds like yet another snowhappy forecast that doesnt deliver. You would think the milk and bread companies sponsor these models. It's comical to see how many times the models forecast snow over the long term only to remove it 24-48 hrs before.

SignalMtnTnVol wrote:Sounds like yet another snowhappy forecast that doesnt deliver.  You would think the milk and bread companies sponsor these models.  It's comical to see how many times the models forecast snow over the long term only to remove it 24-48 hrs before.

No model has removed anything that they have been progging! None of them has ever progged much for your area from the get go! Take the bitching and moaning elsewhere!

From the HPC/WPC..probabilities of snowfall greater than one inch!

One of our local weatherman was forecasting about an half inch about 50 miles west of me, on Monteagle, Tn. Well really 0.4 of an inch. Nothing here.

I got to where I don't even listen to my local weather anymore. I would say toots maps pretty close. Be safe to say 1-3" would be common. But to forecast 0.4 is pretty funny! Anyway if the system can dig further south this will be good because it will  cause it to slow down. Thus more snow!  but as of now moves On pretty quick.  

Looking at the new NAM starting to look better than last runs. The placement of the low is further south and it has heavier and more precip at hr33-36.    

Wow" looked at hr 42 man I hope this is right with the output of precip.

Man the NAM is looking like the euro the other day! The euro was showing a stronger lead low. Now the NAM has it. I like! But don't wont to get to excited!  

I guess i am the only one drinking and looking at the weather!  I hope all have a safe and happy new year!    

 

Toot wrote:

SignalMtnTnVol wrote:Sounds like yet another snowhappy forecast that doesnt deliver.  You would think the milk and bread companies sponsor these models.  It's comical to see how many times the models forecast snow over the long term only to remove it 24-48 hrs before.

No model has removed anything that they have been progging! None of them has ever progged much for your area from the get go! Take the bitching and moaning elsewhere!

don't sweat it
Toot. Sigmtnvol is a dick in real life too. I think he got caught back in 2010 having sex with a chicken. Or was it a turkey? My mind is a blank. Anywho, he likes his poultry.  

KPhuck Stick wrote:

Toot wrote:

SignalMtnTnVol wrote:  Sounds like yet another snowhappy forecast that doesnt deliver.  You would think the milk and bread companies sponsor these models.  It's comical to see how many times the models forecast snow over the long term only to remove it 24-48 hrs before.

No model has removed anything that they have been progging! None of them has ever progged much for your area from the get go! Take the bitching and moaning elsewhere!

don't sweat it
Toot. Sigmtnvol is a dick in real life too. I think he got caught back in 2010 having sex with a chicken. Or was it a turkey? My mind is a blank. Anywho, he likes his poultry.  

I think it taste like chicken! Smells Like     If you ask me.

Jscentraltn wrote:I guess i am the only one drinking and looking at the weather!  I hope all have a safe and happy new year!    

 

No..Ive been drinking all evening...lol and now im looking at the latest guidance models. Happy New Year everybody!!!!

Hey guys so what do yall expect nashvegas to get??

Toot wrote:

Jscentraltn wrote:I guess i am the only one drinking and looking at the weather!  I hope all have a safe and happy new year!    

 

No..Ive been drinking all evening...lol and now im looking at the latest guidance models. Happy New Year everybody!!!!

It's all good!!!!

Happy New Year everyone! Hope it was a good one for everybody! This system sure seems to be a sneaky little system. I hope it over performs like some of the others have here lately.

NWS on there website are calling for an inch in Chatta. But this could be on the mountain tops.

The models have become pretty consistent with the placement of the low. The only thing that is going back and forth is how strong the low will be. Right now I only see light snow. Starting as a mix of rain and snow! Some places all rain!

Updated graphic

I was expecting the lead surface low to track south of the state but latest guidance models is bringing it back northward which tracks it across the state. This will keep precip in the rain form a little longer than it would have if lead low tracked south of us.

Due to this aspect the forecast will change also.The system hasnt slowed down any either so this will also eat at snow totals. Here is what im now expecting

I'd be happy with anything we could get on this one. T to an inch would be good for the storm that was then wasn't then was then wasn't lol. This has got to be one of the craziest weather patterns I've seen in a long long time. Looks a little better now for the Sunday system on the 12z GFS too, who knows, maybe we can nickle and dime our way to our average snowfall If we can't get a big one, lol

Jed33 wrote:I'd be happy with anything we could get on this one. T to an inch would be good for the storm that was then wasn't then was then wasn't lol. This has got to be one of the craziest weather patterns I've seen in a long long time. Looks a little better now for the Sunday system on the 12z GFS too, who knows, maybe we can nickle and dime our way to our average snowfall If we can't get a big one, lol

Yeah..this has been a tough one! Id say Morristown squeaks out a couple of inches tho. The NW flow behind the system looks pretty healthy

Lol..There is something wrong with this picture 
 

Lol yeah that's mrx for you it may be just right but I think I-40 N could see an inch. However, they won't issue a WWA for only one inch haha. They are also being extremely conservative in the latest AFD on the arctic air mass. Says lows in mid teens and highs near 30 on next weeks air mass. Man that's a little bit high don't you think MRX

Jed33 wrote:Lol yeah that's mrx for you it may be just right

I have a problem with the advisory stopping at the VA/TN line. If Bristol VA is in the advisory Bristol TN should to. The line is totally imaginary..it really doesnt represent a change in elevation or anything

Yeah I agree they are a little funny with stuff like that quite a bit. It's as if the front/snow or whatever it is can read a map and says no I can't go over that line haha