The elusive post New Years 2013 storm system (Accumulating snow possible)

etnwx wrote: I see nothing in the GFS that would indicate the kind of cold your models show. What an I missing?

"Our models"? Lol..Thats the european model showing the crazy cold! Its not ours!! Its those crazy talking european bastards model! But generally its recognized as the most accurate! Those crazy temps will be dependant on a heavy snowfall that the euro is showing! If that snowfall verifies those temps might verify. Alot of "ifs" tho.

I gotcha. Crazy fo sure! You have any faith in that model?

The gfs looked pretty good for middle and east tn. As for the cold the gfs was conservative. The bastards model is over done. If we can get a snowpack between thur and sun-mon. I can see low single digits.

 

I highly doubt there will be any accumulation in Chattanooga on Thurs. It is going to be 54 on Wed...too warm. Any other long range chances?

SignalMtnTnVol wrote:I highly doubt there will be any accumulation in Chattanooga on Thurs.  It is going to be 54 on Wed...too warm.  Any other long range chances?

Being in Chattanooga is a perfectly legitimate excuse for no accumulations but being 54 degrees the day before is not!  

12/31 0000 Euro is showing even more snow for ETN on the 3rd. Hasn't completed run for following weekend yet tho.

I actually live on Signal Mtn outside of Chatty. It's usually 3-5 degrees cooler at 1700 ft when compared to Chattanooga(650 ft). I have been watching the forecast and no local meteriologist is calling for any accumulation. I think it's just wishful thinking..

Any updates on this puppy? MRX is throwing out possible warnings for the favored areas and even advisory possibilities for north of I-40.

VFL wrote:Any updates on this puppy?

Thats what i was hoping to see.  

MRX put out a hazardous weather outlook early this morning.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
339 AM EST TUE DEC 31 2013

...SNOWY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THURSDAY PRODUCING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY PULLING COLD AIR
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE COLD AIR WILL CHANGE THE
PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND THE FAR EASTERN
TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS...GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 2500 FEET. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLATEAU...NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CHEROKEE AND CLAY COUNTIES OF NORTH
CAROLINA.

VERY COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S AND HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.

FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT MONDAY...THERE ARE MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES
ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER POTENTIAL SNOW SYSTEM. PLEASE STAY
TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER DETAILS
OR UPDATES.

For Chattanooga snow on the ground may or may not be. But just because it is/was in the 50's the day before does not mean that snow will not accumulate on the ground. Many, Many times have i seen it cover the ground when it was unfrozen or when it had been raining most of the day. If it snows hard enough it will over come the ground temps. If we went with the ideal the ground had to be cold or frozen we would not see hardly any snow. Case in point 1993 two days before the snow it was in the 60's low 70's. One thing a warm ground does is if you are going to get accumulating snow it does cut down on how much you get. Another thing in the winter is the sun sets very low in the sky where the rays are not directly bearing down on the earth surfaces. So the heating is not as great as it would be in say March. I not saying Chattanooga will get any snow on the ground, am just saying this has become a myth more than a fact. Kind of like, i use to hear people say around Chattanooga when it got cold, that it was to cold to snow. Not true either. Another Myth i use to hear for Chattanooga was a tornado could not get in here because of all the Mountains around the city. But if it did, it could not get out. Wrong again. That just may take on things. No, am not trying to be smart or anything like that. I was just trying to clear the air about so many myths about weather. It just my 2 cent worth which don't mean anything. Everyone have a SAFE AND HAPPY NEW YEAR God Bless......  

Don't the models refresh soon?

I know the European is great for predicting hurricanes but how well does it do with winter storms?

Here's how I think it could play out for the region. There is plenty of room for busts on this one and if it phases earlier this may be to light in some areas. One thing that is already working against me is the progged speed of the storm system. Its looks to be booking it!

[quote="jeffmac99"]MRX put out a hazardous weather outlook early this morning.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
339 AM EST TUE DEC 31 2013

...SNOWY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...

Did NOAA retract this outlook? I don't see it. Thanks.

So 2-4 is the way you're leaning for the N valley Toot? Or am I reading that wrong?

I hope it keeps booking it. However, Do you see the it bring the cold air down afterwards? and how is the next phase looking on Sunday night to Monday?     

Neals wrote:I know the European is great for predicting hurricanes but how well does it do with winter storms?

It normally does well with those too

Snowflake wrote:
Did NOAA retract this outlook?  I don't see it.  Thanks.  

They are probably getting ready to issue winter weather products

Jed33 wrote:So 2-4 is the way you're leaning for the N valley Toot? Or am I reading that wrong?

No..you're reading it correctly..2-4"

Here is the link:


MRX Hazardous Weather Outlook

That would be nice looks like it would be slow to melt too. If we got that amount, particularly the higher end, we might get close to the single digits even overnight Esp. If the clouds clear. I know everyone is looking at the potential cold next week, but this little quick shot is pretty impressive in its own right

To hell with this one   . I want what the Euro is showing Monday.     

windstorm wrote: Everyone have a SAFE AND HAPPY NEW YEAR God Bless......  

You too Windstorm!  

Dyersburg Weather wrote:To hell with this one   . I want what the Euro is showing Monday.     

LOL..Well..look what the cat drug in!!  

Pic of euro or it ain't happening.

Euro pic??

SignalMtnTnVol wrote:Euro pic??

Toot probably can show what is was showing for two runs in a row. Today's run not so good. Moved the low way to the west. Yesterday it had 6 to 12 inches state wide. Now it is I-44 storm. Still gets cold.