Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Mrgolf wrote:Guys, i know the pattern hasnt set up quite yet,but b patient. It should come. Yall need to check out WXRISK.COM if u havent already. He updates his blog a few times a week. He explains in great detail about this stratosphere warming event in the artic circle and how it should translate to our weather forecasts in next few weeks. I would post the official link,but my cellphone wont allow it. One thing positive bout 12zgfs is that it builds cold air in west canada. It has been absent up there also

http://www.wxrisk.com/

There ya go man!

Very good stuff indeed.

jmundie wrote:

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:The title of the thread was my thoughts at the time and I still think something similar will verify...Im not gonna put up with whiney lil bitches on here...take your whiney lil hissy fits elsewhere because they're not wanted here

Wait... I thought this place was open to everyone, all opinions, etc.

My opinion is that your "forecasts" are merely wishcasts. We all want it to snow Danny... but telling people its going to, or that there's still a chance, when there is little to no chance is just a cry for attention man. Let your forecasts stand on their own merits. If you're wrong, you're wrong. But don't hold yourself up as an expert. Even DT, Cosgrove, et al, don't speak with the authority you do. Only Bastardi...

Good Lord.

You can disagree with his line of thinking but to say he is wishcasting is ridiculous. He always backs up his forecasts with oodles of data and well thought out explanations. Yes he tends to be more optimistic than some but so what. If he falls flat I'm sure he'll man up and accept defeat and move on to the next storm. If you go back and read through the threads from last season on TNWX, you'll see that he had a pretty damn good track record. Often times he was nearly the only one honking when naysayers were cliff diving. More often than not his call maps were virtually dead on. Also, I recall an instance of him humbly admitting that he didn't have a great grasp on the details of a particular ULL and yielded to others with more experience. He is learning just like the rest of us and doesn't claim to be an expert, at least that I've seen.

As far as this current threat goes, I'm not expecting much. But it's certainly encouraging to see a shift to a colder pattern. Will it last through the month? Who the hell knows. I'm open to everyone's thoughts on the matter. I may make a little fun here and there but you won't find me accusing anyone of wishcasting if they are backing up their ideas with solid data and explanation. It sucks this debate spiraled out of control they way it did.

Good Lord is about the only thing worth saying to any of this...

This was a marginal upslope event from the get go, it still is a marginal one. A few snow showers for some, maybe some high Mt LeConte accums since it's pretty much the upslope king south of West Virginia.

12z ensembles trending wetter...I exoect them to trind a littlw wetter near east TN

Thanks stove for the kind words...Mundie is also very knowledgeable but I wont have anybody ridiculed here on this forum

Mrgolf wrote:Guys, i know the pattern hasnt set up quite yet,but b patient. It should come. Yall need to check out WXRISK.COM if u havent already. He updates his blog a few times a week. He explains in great detail about this stratosphere warming event in the artic circle and how it should translate to our weather forecasts in next few weeks. I would post the official link,but my cellphone wont allow it. One thing positive bout 12zgfs is that it builds cold air in west canada. It has been absent up there also

Interesting Kev...thanks buddy

Larry cosgrove is also good. He works down in houston,tx. Type in:Houston weather examiner. Thats where u can check him out. He should publish his famous newsletter this saturday about 7pm cst. Its usually pretty interesting. When u get to his page,just click the newsletter link. Mayb sum1 can post that official link on here. Im ready to see a cold pattern evolve,but we must remain patient. Wont happen overnite. Sum1 mentioned on another forum that we have to get the pacific better before we see changes here among other things.

Mrgolf wrote:Larry cosgrove is also good..

IMO Larry Cosgrove is the best long range forecaster in the country







JKL starting to bight on my wetter idea

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN
AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS A SURFACE COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...AND THEN UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS DYS 4 AND 5 ...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. INTERESTINGLY...MODELS
ADVERTISE A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
WHICH WOULD NORMALLY ENHANCE ANY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW KEEPS THE BULK OF ANY MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES OUT OF OUR AREA. THEREFORE WITH THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE FEED CAN NOT HELP BUT TO FEEL ATTM THAT ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION POTENTIALS WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST. IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL
BE IN STORE FOR A BRIEF SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
BUT TEMPS REBOUND VERY QUICKLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS SHORT WAVE
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERLY RETURN SFC FLOW
KICKS IN.

18z ensembles still trending wetter and colder with a few members hinting at a miller b secondary..getting more interesting with each run...I feel the 0z ens will be much wetter

12z cmc could be hinting at Moderate to heavy NW flow event in east TN










That could be several inches in NE TN butI just want everybody to remember the lakes cutter last DEC that was modeled as NW flow but areas got 6-10 inches from that ULL tapping the Great lakes..thats aboy what the models looke like a few days out then ...Im still not convinced that somebody in east TN gets clobbered and Im just not talking about the mtns either

12z UKMET I tried to tell mundie that this front would trend wetter and he basically said I was wishcasting... its called synoptic pattern recognition son








This system has HUGE potential...im very excited

toot on that UKMET image it looks like the 540 line is a little north?

Reb wrote:toot on that UKMET image it looks like the 540 line is a little north?

Reb its too close to worry about at this time....just use as guidance and then when it gets closer we can determine precip type and qpf and all that shit...Remember at long range you look at 500mb patterns at medium range you look at LPS's at shortt range you look at precip type qpf 850's thickness thermodynamics etc (small scale details)...doing it in any different order will have you comletely lost as to what will happen

well looks like at least the lake effect snows finally get going next week... some places may get over a foot if your on the downside of the north winds... reason im posting that, could be a start to getting some decent snow cover to our north.

Just a wee bit chilly on the CMC:

iF THAT POWERFUL OF A STORM DEVELOPS i DONT CARE HOW DRY ITS ON the models ,,,That would procuce NW flow snow for 5 days even in the valley...that was a bomb the cmc had like 970mb's

NAM is showing a little lake effect action, toot.

NAM accum map classic showing of upslope areas in East Tennessee.

JKL seems to think the models are probably slightly under doing the moisture with it. I figure I might get .5-1 inch if I'm lucky. Not like some of the upslope last year that dumped 5 or 6 inches a couple times.

Well I don't expect anything from this at all, but if the winds could turn out of the north enough, some of that lake effect could strech down here. I know this probably won't happen but it would be nice.

Anyways looks like West Virginia could really get hammered up there.

I wish all of you guys luck in East Tennessee.

I wouldnt write anything off with this system...its huge and very powerful several people could get surprised by this one but dont bank on it

im just saying models could be underdoing cyclogenesis and moisture fetch...the same way they did back in mid Dec of last winter....it was modeled as nothing more than a little wrap around and then as we got about 12 hrs out it started trending wetter and wetter...it fetched lake effect snow all the way down to south GA

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:I wouldnt write anything off with this system...its huge and very powerful several people could get surprised by this one but dont bank on it

im just saying models could be underdoing cyclogenesis and moisture fetch...the same way they did back in mid Dec of last winter....it was modeled as nothing more than a little wrap around and then as we got about 12 hrs out it started trending wetter and wetter...it fetched lake effect snow all the way down to south GA

See I remember that, now if only it will do that. I will see a little snow action too. I mean heck the models are already trending to snow on the platuea so anything is possible.

This is the 12z ensemble mean...I know computer models are not showing it but if that image verifies somebody in that very deep trough will get some snow and im not just talking higher elevated areas either

Wow its gonna get cold...some areas in east TN could be 20+ degrees below normal on Jan 3rd...thats single digits

Temp departures from Normal

This is from Robert AKA Foothills over at Americanwx and remember these are hight temps

Coldest Airmass in 2 Years !!

Looks like the coldest airmass in a couple years is headed for the Southeast. It arrives early Monday morning and temperatures will fall through the day in the Western Carolinas and North Georgia. By Tuesday, our temperatures will stay well below freezing in the mountains, with lots of wind-blown snow. Even Asheville and some lower mountain communities will get in on the act.
Meanwhile, I'm forecasting temperatures to be below freezing all day Tuesday in places like Atlanta, Charlotte and Knoxville to Nashville and Greensboro. Shelby may stay in the 20's for a High Temp...thats cold!

The Cold wave lasts around 3 days, and by the end of the week we begin moderating. Take precautions now to wrap pipes, winterize your vehicle and prepare for this Shock to the system type of cold.
High winds and blowing snow in the mountains will make for hazardous and ground blizzard conditions from Monday into Tuesday, so avoid un neccessary travel. Wind chills there will fall well below zero.

Starting to look like a 1985 repeat

what happened in 85 toot? meanwhile MRX has me at 18 monday night with 20 percent pops on snow