Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

by **Toot** 2012-01-14, 1:32 pm

Check out how fast this one is moving...This is why these are called clippers Shocked

Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems - Page 21 Anim_serc

by **Toot** 2012-01-14, 2:22 pm

This one is moving in much faster than I expected...with the sun out in some spots in east TN it has allowed surface temps to get to near 40 in the valley. As the clouds move in from west to east it will sort of lock those temps in for a while...the valley may never cool down enough for all snow. Its really a borderline situation with the speed of this system.

Boy... what a rough winter in the east TN valley yikes

Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems - Page 21 ADI_Temps

by **John1122** 2012-01-14, 2:39 pm

Yeah, it's moving right along. And the MRX dayshift, as usual, came in and lowered snow chances here. JKL holds theirs at 70 percent though. Upslope should kick in for a while behind the clipper.

by **John1122** 2012-01-14, 2:47 pm

And we'll see if it happens but the SREF and some other simradars have precip exploding over Eastern Tennessee and Eastern Ky.

by **Toot** 2012-01-14, 3:43 pm

MRX pulled the gun on a WWA in the mountains

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
305 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2012

...LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-072-074-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-150500-
/O.NEW.KMRX.WW.Y.0003.120114T2100Z-120115T1200Z/
JOHNSON-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST GREENE-UNICOI-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
LEE-WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNTAIN CITY...COSBY...CEDAR CREEK...
ERWIN...ROAN MOUNTAIN...CADES COVE...GATLINBURG...JONESVILLE...
WISE...NORTON...GATE CITY...LEBANON...ABINGDON
305 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
SUNDAY.

* EVENT...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500
FEET. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAIN PEAKS.

* TIMING...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD
DIMINISH BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT...
UNTREATED ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY
ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT. DRIVING AND WALKING MAY BE DIFFICULT ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS
AND SIDEWALKS. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME
TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

They also issued a new SPS for the northern and some of the central valley and plateau locales and they say up to one inch there.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
305 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2012

TNZ012>017-035>040-042-044-046-067>071-073-150915-
SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-SULLIVAN-MORGAN-
ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-
WASHINGTON TN-NORTHWEST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-
NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ONEIDA...LA FOLLETTE...TAZEWELL...
SNEEDVILLE...ROGERSVILLE...KINGSPORT...BRISTOL...WARTBURG...
CLINTON...OAK RIDGE...MAYNARDVILLE...RUTLEDGE...MORRISTOWN...
NEWPORT...GREENEVILLE...JOHNSON CITY...ELIZABETHTON...KINGSTON...
LENOIR CITY...KNOXVILLE...DANDRIDGE...MARYVILLE...SEVIERVILLE
305 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2012

...LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN A FEW AREAS TONIGHT...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY THIS EVENING...BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS MAY
PRODUCE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH ACROSS SOME AREAS OF THE
NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND CENTRAL GREAT TENNESSEE VALLEY.

ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...BUT DRIVING
AND WALKING MAY BECOME DIFFICULT ON SOME ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. BE
PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL...SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

$$

DMG

by **Toot** 2012-01-14, 4:32 pm

John you getting any precip or is that virga?

by **skillsweather** 2012-01-14, 4:32 pm

This is such a sad winter when the mountains are happy for 1 inch of snow.. lool usually they get snow every system during the winter time... Im ready for spring sortof i love snow but im so bummed i say just bring spring and maybe next years winter will be better.

by **John1122** 2012-01-14, 4:44 pm

Virga so far Toot.

by **Reb** 2012-01-14, 5:03 pm

hmmm so no more precip will show up?

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-14, 5:10 pm

LeConte just socked in. Not sure it's going to get cold enough where I'm at for the precip that is quickly moving through on radar. Might be a flop.

Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems - Page 21 34sgx8l

Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems - Page 21 34sgx8l

by **Toot** 2012-01-14, 5:14 pm

Reb the back side of the low pressure system (we're on the front side right now) seems to be where most of our precip will come from as the low heads east-southeast models are blowing precip up over east TN. This is not a very familiar stormtrack track to us and may throw a few curveballs our way.

That and then NW flow snowshowers should kick in over night.

This surface map is valid for 6z sunday...notice the position of the low and its associated precip behind it over east TN
Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems - Page 21 93fwbgus

Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems - Page 21 93fwbgus

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-14, 5:17 pm

Interesting info Toot, thanks man!

by **Toot** 2012-01-14, 5:57 pm

No problem...Here is the position of the low now out in middle TN

Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems - Page 21 Pchg

Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems - Page 21 Ruc00hr_sfc_wind

by **snowman72** 2012-01-14, 6:16 pm

Not a cloud in the sky now it must be over

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-14, 6:21 pm

Based on the HRRR and what I'm seeing on radar, this looks like a non-event. Hopefully some magic happens but it's not looking good.

Oh well!

sauce

by **Toot** 2012-01-14, 6:26 pm

Dont let the radar fool you...any snow will be on the backside of the low. Accumulations look to hug the montains and foothills and there also looks to be accumulations in NE TN if the models are correct.

If you are a reader of MRX AFD's it will also tell you the same

THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
IT PRODUCING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST-FACING SLOPES OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS FAST-MOVING `CLIPPER` LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND
ALSO AGREE THAT MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MOST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND WILL PLAN TO ISSUE AN
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWEST VA AND THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. WILL REISSUE
THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF UP TO
INCH OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WITH SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND CENTRAL GREAT TN VALLEY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH A STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT AS DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE VERTICAL TEMP PROFILE
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND
NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
BUT BEGIN TO REVEAL SOME DISCREPANCIES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. WILL PLAN TO TREND TOWARDS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO WHERE
DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED.

I didnt expect to see the precip so soon (even though it was virga) because the models that I was looking at didnt show any precip til 12am tonight. I just hope the coulumn is saturated by then. Still the radar would lead you to believe that this is over....we shall see. But Stove is correct also....the HR says this is pretty much over lmao

What a bust that would be for everybody worry

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-14, 6:37 pm

Preach it brother!

Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems - Page 21 Qyfp1c

by **Toot** 2012-01-14, 6:43 pm

Stovepipe wrote:Preach it brother!

Im sort of doubting we see any accumulations...but Ive been fooled before. MRX and GSP both have WWA's in the mountains though so we shall see.

by **Toot** 2012-01-14, 6:53 pm

Latest from MRX

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
625 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2012

.AVIATION...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE
ACROSS TRI WITH PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW REDUCING
CEILINGS TO 2-3KFT AND VISIBILITIES TO 2 MILES AT TIMES.

AT TYS AND CHA...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. TYS MAY SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW BETWEEN 02-06Z...REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO MVFR.
SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY WITH CLEARING SKY
AREA-WIDE.

Im about to pull the plug on this one myself MRX has dropped the totals in the mountains to one inch.

Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems - Page 21 Image2

Time to stick a fork in this one facepalm

by **Math/Met** 2012-01-14, 7:19 pm

A few flakes finally made it to the surface as that band moved out of Greeneville. That was a lot of wasted precipitation (trying to saturate the column) for a system that didn't have a lot of moisture to work with anyway. The low levels are just really dry.

Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems - Page 21 RUC_255_2012011423_F01_36.5000N_83.0000W

Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems - Page 21 RUC_255_2012011423_F01_36.5000N_83.0000W

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-14, 7:32 pm

Have to say the GFS and Euro nailed this one 4 or 5 days out. This is pretty much what they showed consistently.

console

by **Toot** 2012-01-14, 7:37 pm

There is some development on radar in the western portion of the CWA...not sure if it will amount to anything

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_lite.php?rid=MRX&product=N0R&loop=no

May be just noise