Re: Early FEB snow threat

by **Toot** 2012-01-29, 4:18 pm

12z Nogaps has a freakin Miller A rock on

Dear God...Please let the 12z Nogaps be correct drool

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-01-29, 4:33 pm

meg is starting to hint at some snow on the backside of a fairly potent lp system next weekend, particular if the cmc and euro pan out... thats from their latest discussion thats just been released.

by **Toot** 2012-01-29, 5:30 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:meg is starting to hint at some snow on the backside of a fairly potent lp system next weekend, particular if the cmc and euro pan out... thats from their latest discussion thats just been released.

Sure are Bruce

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WHILE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE LONG
TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD THURSDAY...CONSISTENCY
AND PERSISTENCE TAKES A NOSEDIVE LATE IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY
NEXT WEEKEND. LARGE SWINGS IN MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUED TODAY WITH
THE GFS DRY FOR THE EXTENDED AND A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP.
THE EURO AND CANADIAN DEVELOP A FAIRLY POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT WEEKEND WITH PLENTY OF COLD
AIR TO WORK WITH GIVEN A MORE PHASED SOLUTION. THIS IS IN STARK
CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY WHERE MODELS HAD THEIR OPPONENT/S SOLUTION.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE LOW CHC POPS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IF THE EURO AND CANADIAN
SOLUTIONS PAN OUT...THERE MAY BE A BIT OF SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SYSTEM.

BORGHOFF

by **Toot** 2012-01-29, 6:08 pm

18zGFS has an Apps Runner with "extreme fetch."

Extreme Fetch
(I think that term was coined on this board..im not sure..lol)

Early FEB snow threat - Page 9 2012012918_EUS_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_162

Early FEB snow threat - Page 9 2012012918_EUS_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_162

by **jmundie** 2012-01-29, 6:26 pm

I'm not sure I'm buying the miller b solution that the 18z gfs is showing (along with the euro). We have a double barrel high pressure stretching from the plains into new england. If, as we've been discussing, the models are kinda behind the curve with regard to the negativity of the ao/nao, I think this storm could ride the gulf and turn the corner around the carolinas.

We'll have to see on that. I could be wrong. This year has confused me in many ways.

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-01-29, 7:51 pm

Toot wrote:18zGFS has an Apps Runner with "extreme fetch."

Extreme Fetch
(I think that term was coined on this board..im not sure..lol)

to me toot, it looks like a a classic cold chasing the moisture to me on the 18zgfs

by **Toot** 2012-01-29, 8:04 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:to me toot, it looks like a a classic cold chasing the moisture to me on the 18zgfs

Its cold advection N to NW flow precip that is already wrapped up in the fetch...you've already seen the favorable critical thickness in the image I posted above

Here is your 850 temps for the same hour as above
Early FEB snow threat - Page 9 23ijl88

Here is your surface temps for the same hour as above
Early FEB snow threat - Page 9 2012012918_EUS_GFS_SFC_TEMP_IMAGE_162

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-29, 9:05 pm

Toot wrote:18zGFS has an Apps Runner with "extreme fetch."

Extreme Fetch
(I think that term was coined on this board..im not sure..lol)

(the picture was almost lost in an internet black hole but I was able to retrieve it with google-fu)

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-01-30, 12:14 am

tonights ozgfs is showing a bit less of colder air to work with on the end of the this weeks system... but models could be under doing it just a bit with nao going negative and a positive pna to work with.

by **jmundie** 2012-01-30, 6:54 am

Last nights model runs sucked balls. In a huge way.

by **Toot** 2012-01-30, 8:04 am

Im still hoping the Nogaps is onto something as it held onto a similar storm. The others all of a sudden seem to be holding the energy back into southwest as they cut it off. We'll see what 12z has to say

by **Southeastbutter** 2012-01-30, 8:13 am

Where is the cold air?????????????????????????

by **jmundie** 2012-01-30, 8:34 am

Toot wrote:Im still hoping the Nogaps is onto something as it held onto a similar storm. The others all of a sudden seem to be holding the energy back into southwest as they cut it off. We'll see what 12z has to say

Yeah - If we don't see 12z move back to the prior solution, then it may be time to close the book on this threat.

Apparently the latest CFS weeklies are cold this weekend through the 19th.

I'm just so over this winter. If we can't get some decent snow soon, or even a chance, I may lose it. I'd even take an event that turns into 33 and rain at this point. Just so long as there's the possibility of something.

by Vanster67 2012-01-30, 8:34 am

well, it was just one bad run right? We'll just see how today goes. C'mon winter 2012! hurry

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-01-30, 9:11 am

the pacific is so screwed up in a bad way, you just dont fix that over night... time is ticking away... R I P WINTER 2011-2012... we hardly even knew you. you wont be missed.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-30, 10:56 am

NOGAPS still sexy:

Early FEB snow threat - Page 9 1-1

by **John1122** 2012-01-30, 5:16 pm

This one seems to be a smoldering ruin. Moisture increased but the temps did quite a bit as well. Looks like 40's and rain on tap unfortunately. Should have known the early snow forecast was too good to be true this winter.

by **snowdog** 2012-01-30, 5:42 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:the pacific is so screwed up in a bad way, you just dont fix that over night... time is ticking away... R I P WINTER 2011-2012... we hardly even knew you. you wont be missed.

It's not just the pacific, it's just the whole damn pattern. It started in the fall with the high solar output helping cause an excessive and probably historic +AO regime. After that Winter just never really came anywhere in the Lower 48 so it just throws off the whole pattern. So now we are trying to scramble at the end to make chicken salad out of chicken poop.

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-01-30, 5:46 pm

snowdog wrote:
tennessee storm09 wrote:the pacific is so screwed up in a bad way, you just dont fix that over night... time is ticking away... R I P WINTER 2011-2012... we hardly even knew you. you wont be missed.

It's not just the pacific, it's just the whole damn pattern. It started in the fall with the high solar output helping cause an excessive and probably historic +AO regime. After that Winter just never really came anywhere in the Lower 48 so it just throws off the whole pattern. So now we are trying to scramble at the end to make chicken salad out of chicken poop.

lol, very great point snowdog... i didnt think about the solar issue.

by **Toot** 2012-01-30, 6:34 pm

The pattern is changing hence the big drop in the AO...Not sure if it will be in time for anything good here but the pattern is definately in a transition phase. The Pacific is forecast to become VERY favorable with the big tall ridge out there...getting any Atlantic cooperation has been our downfall this year.

by **Toot** 2012-01-30, 7:16 pm

FWIW which is usually nada.....Nogaps's Crazy brother Dgex has the "Extreme Fetch". lmao

by **snowman72** 2012-01-30, 7:19 pm

Pls show Toot or tell me where I can find this.

by **Toot** 2012-01-30, 7:21 pm

snowman72 wrote:Pls show Toot or tell me where I can find this.

Just know its the Dgex and is likely batshit crazy!! But this would be a NW flow setup.

by **snowman72** 2012-01-30, 7:26 pm

Yea that is batshit crazy

by **Toot** 2012-01-31, 12:21 am

0z GFS was much colder and the storm was a little further south too...I dont think this one is written in stone yet. Yeah the models trended ugly but its still a ways out and there will definately be some more changes given the time left. Hard to say if any of those changes will benefit us....but the 0zgfs was a step in the right direction. smoke

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