Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-13, 5:24 pm

starting to really amp up here, with flakes getting quarter size... i am going out to enjoy it while it last... lol take the dog for a walk.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-13, 5:26 pm

A family member of mine just reported moderate to heavy snow while driving from Jackson to Paris, around Tresvant. Dime sized flakes.

by **secleveland** 2012-02-13, 5:40 pm

Come on guys i have no windows keep me up dated lol

by **secleveland** 2012-02-13, 5:41 pm

Beings it took this long for wtn hows is east looking now?

by **Adam2014** 2012-02-13, 5:43 pm

I have precip on the radar but nothing falling at all.

by **Adam2014** 2012-02-13, 5:46 pm

Flurries in lawrenceburg.

by **Adam2014** 2012-02-13, 5:50 pm

Light snow just like that.

by **Adam2014** 2012-02-13, 5:59 pm

All snow right now moderate too.

by **Adam2014** 2012-02-13, 6:13 pm

Bruce anything accumulating?

by **Toot** 2012-02-13, 6:17 pm

Lol...Mrx dont seem to sure of theirselves and they were saying this should change to all rain by 7am...Now they're saying by the afternoon. I have concerns for alot of the lower lying valleys in east TN. If they get cold enough for freezing rain...I dont see it being warm enough to change back to rain until the peak heating time of the day. With that said places will have to get cold enough and that may be a whole other problem in itself...Its gonna be super close... we will see.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...A FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE
AREA BRINGING A WINTRY MIX TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WILL
KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT SHOULD BEGIN AS RAIN
THEN COULD SEE LIGHT FREEZING LATER TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. IT SHOULD
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN BY THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA BY
TOMORROW. STAYED NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

by **Toot** 2012-02-13, 6:20 pm

Oh yeah...Just seen this SPS from MRX also

Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
337 PM EST MON FEB 13 2012

TNZ012>014-035>041-067>074-082>086-140445-
SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-
HAMBLEN-NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-
JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-
SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ONEIDA...LA FOLLETTE...TAZEWELL...
WARTBURG...CLINTON...OAK RIDGE...MAYNARDVILLE...RUTLEDGE...
MORRISTOWN...NEWPORT...COSBY...KINGSTON...LENOIR CITY...
KNOXVILLE...DANDRIDGE...MARYVILLE...CADES COVE...SEVIERVILLE...
GATLINBURG...PIKEVILLE...DAYTON...DECATUR...ATHENS...MADISONVILLE
337 PM EST MON FEB 13 2012 /237 PM CST MON FEB 13 2012/

...LIGHT WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
BRINGING A CHANCE OF A MIX OF RAIN...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN INCH IS
EXPECTED AND PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS
COULD MAY MAKING DRIVING HAZARDOUS...SO USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-13, 6:22 pm

Still snowing moderately in Paris. Ground getting white I'm told.

by **Adam2014** 2012-02-13, 6:24 pm

Im in a dang dry slot now...

by **Dyersburg Weather** 2012-02-13, 6:24 pm

Dyersburg a bust. Snowed hard for about 30 to 40 min. Temp fell to 32 and changed to rain and sleet.

by **Toot** 2012-02-13, 6:25 pm

Adam is getting snow while most radars suggest precip type as rain rock on

by **Adam2014** 2012-02-13, 6:27 pm

Toot wrote:Adam is getting snow while most radars suggest precip type as rain

That is what I am saying, there isnt a hint of sleet either. I am in a dry slot now though.

by **Dyersburg Weather** 2012-02-13, 6:28 pm

Toot wrote:Adam is getting snow while most radars suggest precip type as rain

Yea this whole system is crazy. The whole time it snowed here radar showed rain. Now we are in dark blue on the radar and it is raining.

by **Adam2014** 2012-02-13, 6:31 pm

Now all sleet, dang it.

by **connerconner** 2012-02-13, 6:35 pm

toot- do you think it will benefit the valley that it is going to fall at night instead of when the temps are at their peak?

by **Toot** 2012-02-13, 6:39 pm

connerconner wrote:toot- do you think it will benefit the valley that it is going to fall at night instead of when the temps are at their peak?

In regards to frozen precip...most certainly...if this had came through during the day there is no doubt in my mind that it would have all been rain in the east TN valley.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-13, 6:52 pm

Central valley didn't reach the forecasted high of 46 today so there's that.

by **Adam2014** 2012-02-13, 6:54 pm

Back to a snow/sleet mix here, down to 36 even.

by **Reb** 2012-02-13, 7:07 pm

Tys dropped from 42 to 40 in like ten minutes lol

by **Toot** 2012-02-13, 7:19 pm

MRX says ahh..nothing to see here..move along. Even though they have a WWA in the CHA area and are forecasting freezing rain in several areas..No mention of these two features in their aviation update. yikes

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
611 PM EST MON FEB 13 2012

.AVIATION...
PRECIPITATION AND LOWERING CEILINGS WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. PRECIP MAY BEGIN AS A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW BEFORE QUICKLY CHANGING OVER TO RAIN. DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIP SHOULD DELAY THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CONDITIONS
UNTIL AFTER 08Z AT CHA. ALTHOUGH PRECIP SHOULD END AFTER 12Z AS DRY
MIDLEVEL AIR WORKS IN...LOW CEILINGS IN THE MVFR RANGE SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AT ALL SITES.

High resolution models or radar for that matter doesn't seem to be picking up precip type very well at all. Nam soundings suggest this starts as snow most everywhere in east TN. We will see...MRX says up to two inches near Chat town. If they get into some of that deep convection it could get fun down there. drool

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-13, 7:50 pm

well currently here in the big j town, were at 34 with dew point 29 , and a good ole sloppy cold wet light rain, uhhh... sleeted fairly hard about 45 minutes ago, which it actually coated the ground some in spots... but now just a cold ole rain.

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