Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

by **Tom** 2012-02-17, 9:53 pm

Toot wrote:Tom you are a tard

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 19 Facepa12

by **AndyP** 2012-02-17, 9:56 pm

MRX includes this statement in the latest AFD:

.WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF TENNESSEE.

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-17, 9:57 pm

AndyP wrote:MRX includes this statement in the latest AFD:

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF TENNESSEE.

whats up andy... you r the one you follows severe weather right?

by **Tom** 2012-02-17, 10:00 pm

Mrx also said that with looking at latest models and ensembles that confidence is high in a strong deform band moving through the CWA for Sunday. Sounds good to me.

by **AndyP** 2012-02-17, 10:01 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:whats up andy... you r the one you follows severe weather right?

Doing good!!! Hope you're doing well! I do follow severe weather very closely, this storm has really caught my attention as well.

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-17, 10:08 pm

AndyP wrote:Doing good!!! Hope you're doing well! I do follow severe weather very closely, this storm has really caught my attention as well.

what i thought, i am tennessee storm chaser over at talk weather forum man...

by **skillsweather** 2012-02-17, 10:11 pm

Does anyone have ohx old forecast picture from 6am this morning cause it changed to 8pm one now and I wanna see the difference. Thanks

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-17, 10:53 pm

Earl's 0z NAM maps hot off the press:

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 19 Wivih0

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 19 29kt2fl

by **connerconner** 2012-02-17, 10:55 pm

me likey stove!

by **Toot** 2012-02-17, 11:05 pm

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-17, 11:14 pm

0z GFS not so hot.

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 19 Usaasnowipersfc069y

Oh well, as long as the Doc and Nam hold serve all is good.

by **jmundie** 2012-02-17, 11:54 pm

It's better than the last couple runs though stove

by **skillsweather** 2012-02-17, 11:56 pm

How so? I thought that like all the runs today basically gave Tennessee a good 4inches north of 40. That one gives us 2 at best and only for the far northern countys

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-18, 12:03 am

anybody see the ukemet, pretty good

by **jmundie** 2012-02-18, 12:04 am

mmm...eggs wrote:How so? I thought that like all the runs today basically gave Tennessee a good 4inches north of 40. That one gives us 2 at best and only for the far northern countys

Not of the gfs - it's had the least snow of all the models (except maybe the Canadian) all day long.

by **John1122** 2012-02-18, 12:40 am

I'm not so worried any more about the maps, but holy hell the NAM is just piling me down with 10-12 and all of Campbell Co with 6+. If I can get half that I'll do a happy dance.

I am not shocked in the least that MRX is talking WWA instead of Winter Storm Watch. I think their criteria for a winter storm is more stern than the Lake Effect snow belt. Or they just ignore it.

by **John1122** 2012-02-18, 1:05 am

JKL from 11:40pm. Should be good news for more of Tennessee.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1140 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2012

THINNER CLOUDS THIS EVENING HAVE LED TO A QUICKER DROPOFF IN
TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS. DID A QUICK
UPDATE TO REFLECT THAT IN THE GRIDS AND WEB PRODUCTS.

FIRST THOUGHTS ON THE LATEST 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE WEEKEND
SNOWS SUGGESTS A SLOWER START AND A FURTHER SOUTH TRACK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SNOW BEING THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE CWA...BUT POTENTIAL AMOUNTS TRIMMED SUBSTANTIALLY FOR AT LEAST
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

by **Reb** 2012-02-18, 1:19 am

euro holds serve

by **John1122** 2012-02-18, 1:27 am

The high res models have taken over now. The simulated radar running up there shows this changing over into a burst of heavy snow for all of East Tennessee.

JKL talking about it shifting the axis and cold further south as of their midnight update should mean better things for all of East Tennessee.

by **John1122** 2012-02-18, 1:33 am

Euro at 48 hours. Still very high humidity in the snow growth zone over East Tennessee and plenty of cold air around.

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 19 Post-210

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 19 Post-210

by Vanster67 2012-02-18, 2:03 am

hey John, how do you think that Monterey (on the plateau ) might do?

by **John1122** 2012-02-18, 2:36 am

I think you have a good shot at doing well Van. 3-6 wouldn't surprise me at all if things hold serve.

I could easily see 3-6 for Central and Northern Plateau counties. Similar for Northern Valley areas. 2-3+ for central Valley areas with a sharp cut off. Someone will probably see rain, someone close by will probably see heavy snow.

It's a matter of how you usually do in these situations. I've saw it some many years here and posted about it before. The various snow lines between Knoxville and Campbell Co.

I've saw a lot of storms that were heavy rain in Knoxville be a mix around the Clinch river and 10 miles north at the CC line be heavy snow.

I think just about the whole state will have a shot at seeing this turn to snow. But the higher up or further north you are is almost always better with this type of storm.

I compared it to Jan 29th-30th 2010 earlier. I visited American and saw similar comparisons there. The biggest difference is this one is going to be a bit warmer to start and where areas like Chattanooga did well at the start of that one, they won't this time.

The hard thing in these situations is waiting on the change over, sometimes it never comes for certain areas. It always seems to crawl towards you even in areas where it does.

by **John1122** 2012-02-18, 2:53 am

The Euro, if the accum maps are accurate looks to be about 3-6 north of 40 from say Crossville to the other side of Nashville. 1-4 from South just south of Knox to about Anderson/Union and eastward.

It shows a big burst just North of Nash were about 4 inches falls in 3 hours.

by **John1122** 2012-02-18, 2:55 am

1:30am update from JKL.

Keeps up with the more southern track message, which should bode better for Tennessee.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
130 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 123 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2012

UPDATED THE FORECAST PRIMARILY TO ADD IN THE NEW POP GRIDS THROUGH
THE STORM AND DERIVED WEATHER OFF OF THEM. PLAN ON KEEPING THE WATCH
IN PLACE AS IT IS...BUT DID LOWER POPS AND QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA...BOWING TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR A MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK. ALSO...MATCHED UP THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.