Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-18, 7:46 am

Good updates through the night and morning guys!

popcorn

by **Toot** 2012-02-18, 7:54 am

Tom wrote:Looks like the 6z nam has lost all hope that was shown on the 0z model run. Hopefully thats not a start of a trend.

Deterministic models are now worthless...you need to be looking at the Ruc/Wrf's/Rpm's Etc...

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-18, 7:54 am

Euro slowed the storm down it seems. Snow doesn't hit the valley until 0z. Still showing about 3.5 inches at TYS verbatim. Generally the consistency with the Euro the past 4 or 5 days has been incredible.

by **Toot** 2012-02-18, 7:59 am

Tom wrote:
Looks like downsloping and warm air issues will be the negating factor for the valley. I'm just not seeing it myself.

Tom start backing up your fookin statements with data or you are outta here

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 21 Cox624

by **Tom** 2012-02-18, 7:59 am

LOL.. Toot I deleted that post.

by **Toot** 2012-02-18, 8:00 am

Tom wrote:LOL.. Toot I deleted that post.

Your on thin ice SON!!

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-18, 8:01 am

Speaking of SON, is he still writing the AFDs for MRX? That guy brings the mojo!

by **Tom** 2012-02-18, 8:03 am

Stovepipe wrote:Speaking of SON, is he still writing the AFDs for MRX? That guy brings the mojo!

Haven't seen his name at the bottom of the AFD in a little while.

by **Toot** 2012-02-18, 8:06 am

HPC probs of snow accums greater than two inches

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 21 Prb_24hsnow_ge02_2012021812f048

by **Toot** 2012-02-18, 8:19 am

Hi res NMM
*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 21 Cld48

by Vanster67 2012-02-18, 8:41 am

Toot wrote:HPC probs of snow accums greater than two inches

Looks like I am in the greater than two inch area of 80 to 90 percent!! Cool I have no problemo with that! Thanks for the post Toot!

by **AndyP** 2012-02-18, 8:43 am

Good morning!!! I really enjoyed reading through the discussion that took place overnight. Its always a pleasure to wake up under a WSW! Everyone enjoy the calm before the storm! smartass

by **Tom** 2012-02-18, 8:50 am

jmundie wrote:HPC obviously not adjusting for topography. No way that the valley has that high a chance of greater than 2 inches.

Evidence??

by **Toot** 2012-02-18, 8:54 am

jmundie wrote:HPC obviously not adjusting for topography. No way that the valley has that high a chance of greater than 2 inches.

Yes provide some short range guidance to back that statement up Mundie?

by **Toot** 2012-02-18, 8:59 am

Vanster67 wrote:

Looks like I am in the greater than two inch area of 80 to 90 percent!! Cool I have no problemo with that! Thanks for the post Toot!

No problem bud Smile

by **ballpark** 2012-02-18, 9:06 am

can anyone post the ruc model?

by **Tom** 2012-02-18, 9:06 am

Toot wrote:
jmundie wrote:HPC obviously not adjusting for topography. No way that the valley has that high a chance of greater than 2 inches.
Yes provide some short range guidance to back that statement up Mundie?

And not just the 6z nam either. We are in the short range model timeframe, and the Nam will become increasingly useless.

by **Toot** 2012-02-18, 9:09 am

We have a 1000-1005mb gulf low gentleman

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 21 Fztp

by **Tom** 2012-02-18, 9:19 am

Is that good toot? Won't that be too far south

by **Toot** 2012-02-18, 9:20 am

If you post your thoughts you will need to show some guidance support to back your thoughts up. If you dont your post will be deleted due the heavy traffic that is expected.

by **Toot** 2012-02-18, 9:25 am

Tom wrote:Is that good toot? Won't that be too far south

This storm is a true Miller A and this is the best track for a strong LPS during winter for heavy wet snow in East TN

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 21 Miller_a

by **jmundie** 2012-02-18, 9:34 am

Lol -

I don't need models to tell you that the valley, especially the southern valley, will have major bl issues. Especially if the rgem track is correct. The valley acts like a funnel for warm air - its easy to see on the euro as well as tr nam. Dynamic cooling works from the top down, and winds won't be coming from the ne until the precip is almost gone. You'll have snow at 850mb, but it will take longer to work down to the surface.

If this were a track like December 2010 - y'all would do well, but a deform band that needs dynamic cooling is going to be tough for the valley, especially the southern valley. The closer you are to the river, especially on the west bank, the less snow you'll receive.

by **jmundie** 2012-02-18, 9:36 am

I should say too- we have te same prOblem in the basin here in Nashville. The elevation drop isn't as steep - but it still affects things - even when cold air is all ready in place, the burbs,it's 500 ft up, always do better than my house, a stones throw from the Cumberland.