Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

by **WxFreak** 2012-07-01, 7:25 pm

Yes, I noticed that the MCS currently moving into Ohio put out a significant gust front/outflow heading south toward this developing line of storms. I would think not only will the gust front create additional lift along the line, but it would send the new line of storms off to the southeast in time.

by **Toot** 2012-07-01, 8:16 pm

There is no telling where some of these bowing segments will end up...outflow boudaries galore in every direction...lol

by **windstorm** 2012-07-01, 8:29 pm

Maybe Monday or Tuesday Chattanooga will have a better chance of some of this. Reach an other record high today of 107. Two 107 in a row, one with 106, one with 103. Don't think these are all records maybe 3 at of 4.

by **Toot** 2012-07-01, 9:49 pm

Outflow boudary getting ahead of convection

Summer 2012 WX Discussion - Page 9 JKL_loop

by **Adam2014** 2012-07-01, 10:09 pm

Outflow boundry way ahead now, at least 30-40 miles.

by **Toot** 2012-07-01, 10:41 pm

True ring of fire in the SE tonight as the strong upper level anticyclone wraps precip around it anticyclonically. Not something you see everyday..just goes to show the power of this HPS.

Summer 2012 WX Discussion - Page 9 181380_278965785544514_495510501_n

Summer 2012 WX Discussion - Page 9 181380_278965785544514_495510501_n

by **VFL** 2012-07-01, 10:47 pm

Looks like that MCS is getting it's act together as it moves SE. We may see some action after all. Will the OFB help us or is that a sign of weakening?

by **Toot** 2012-07-01, 11:06 pm

Sometimes when the OFB outruns the convection things die out...but we were so unstable from all the heat that took place the OFB is forcing storms to pop out ahead of it.. just like a cold front would.

by **VFL** 2012-07-01, 11:08 pm

Yeah, the last 30 min storms are poping everywhere, hope I get one.

by **Toot** 2012-07-01, 11:29 pm

Fireworks/Lightning show here in Morristown...never have been so glad to see some rain. My grass was getting crunchy. Hopefully we have some on a daily basis now.

Damn...these boomers are pretty violent and jarring the windows yikes

EDIT...Just started hailing here

by **WxFreak** 2012-07-02, 6:15 am

I rec'd nearly .65 overnight. While areas to my south and east got over 2", especially in NC. Areas further west rec'd little rain at all.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=mrx&product=NTP&loop=no

Summer 2012 WX Discussion - Page 9 Radar_lite

Summer 2012 WX Discussion - Page 9 Radar_lite

by **WxFreak** 2012-07-02, 6:24 am

Looking much better in the rainfall dept for at least the eastern part of Tennessee.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
440 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ONE MORE DAY WITH RECORD HIGHS AND ABOVE 100 DEGREES STILL EXPECTED ACROSS SE TN...WHERE THE HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES. CONVECTION GOT RATHER ROBUST SUNDAY EVENING AND CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING...DUE IN PART TO NEW ACTIVITY POPPING ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. 02/00Z UPPER AIR PLOTS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE HAS GIVEN WAY A BIT TO NW FLOW ALOFT OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THIS NW FLOW...TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS AT ABOUT ANY TIME...WITH A PEAK IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. EXPECTING A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS...WITH HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. TORRENTIAL RAIN...AS NOTED SUNDAY EVENING...IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS.

850 MB TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES DEFINITELY DROP FROM THE HEAT WAVE DAYS...RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD EASE MAX TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 80S AND 90S...STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MOS MAX/MIN TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE AND WERE CLOSELY FOLLOWED.

MAJOR CHANGE TO PREVIOUS GRIDS FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WAS TO INCREASE POPS JUST ABOUT EACH PERIOD...IN LINE WITH LATEST MOS AND ADJACENT NWS GRIDS.

by **Adam2014** 2012-07-02, 7:28 am

No storms for any of Middle Tennessee really, hoping to get some relief this week.

by **WxFreak** 2012-07-02, 3:25 pm

Per discussion from local NWS office in Greenville, SC--widespread storms looking less likely today compared to yesterday. The reason being, the air is much more stable today than yesterday.

MEANWHILE...THERE IS HARDLY ANY CU ACROSS THE AREA ATTM...SO WE WILL NOT SEE THE EXPLOSIVE TRANSITION FROM CLEAR SKIES TO SEVERE UPDRAFTS THAT WE SAW YESTERDAY. NEVERTHELESS...AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO CLIMB...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DESTABILIZE...AND CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO POP OVER THE TYPICAL TERRAIN AREAS...AND TO OUR SOUTH ALONG PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND WE CERTAINLY DO NOT EXPECT THE WIDESPREAD SEVERE CONVECTION THAT WAS SEEN YESTERDAY...ACTUALLY MORE OF A TYPICAL JULY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

by **WxFreak** 2012-07-02, 3:30 pm

Blacksburg, VA NWS office seems a bit more optomistic about convection chances overnight:

WITH THE SUPPORT OF THE GFS KEPT THE HIGHER POPS AFTER 00Z WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER MCS OR WARM FRONTAL TYPE CONVECTIVE EVENT. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE AROUND MINUS 7 TO OUR WEST FROM INDIANA SOUTH TO TENNESSEE HIGHLIGHTS THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHWEST AND DROP SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF CWA TONIGHT.

by **WxFreak** 2012-07-02, 4:18 pm

Per MRX, best chance of strong storms Tuesday and Wednesday before the dreaded ridge re-builds over the area for the latter part of the week. BUT--there is good news in the Long-term discussion:

THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A LONG TERM PATTERN CHANGE. BELIEVE IT OR NOT...MODELS ARE HINTING AT A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WOULD HELP STEER STORMS THAT FORM OVER THE MS/OH VALLEYS INTO MIDDLE AND EAST TN. STILL A LONG WAYS OUT BUT FUN TO THINK ABOUT AFTER THE RECORD BREAKING HEAT OF RECENT PAST. NOT ONLY WOULD SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ARRIVE BUT MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION WOULD BRING RELIEF TO THE DRIEST AREAS.

I love the words--LONG TERM PATTERN CHANGE!!

by **Dyersburg Weather** 2012-07-02, 5:41 pm

I have about come to terms with I live in the core of HELL burn

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-07-02, 5:52 pm

Dyersburg Weather wrote:I have about come to terms with I live in the core of HELL

you sure arent alone dyer... think i do also... torch

by **Toot** 2012-07-02, 9:00 pm

Slow moving storms moving in on the Great Valley of east TN. The rain will be very welcome here pals

by **VFL** 2012-07-02, 9:59 pm

Toot wrote:Slow moving storms moving in on the Great Valley of east TN. The rain will be very welcome here

I have yet to see a drop of rain. Same thing last night, everyone around me is getting rain and I can't get a bird to piss on my yard.

by **Toot** 2012-07-02, 10:11 pm

Lol VFL..they have a flood advisory out for Knox now. You still didnt get any rain?

by **VFL** 2012-07-02, 10:26 pm

Toot wrote:Lol VFL..they have a flood advisory out for Knox now. You still didnt get any rain?

Not yet but some new cells have formed in Anderson and Union Co so maybe I won't need that bird after all.

by **snowdog** 2012-07-03, 12:20 am

VFL wrote:
Toot wrote:Slow moving storms moving in on the Great Valley of east TN. The rain will be very welcome here

I have yet to see a drop of rain. Same thing last night, everyone around me is getting rain and I can't get a bird to piss on my yard.

I saw a few drops this afternoon but not enough to even wet the street. I would complain but thanks to others getting rain and the cloud cover around it kept temps down today and there was a "cool" breeze tonight. Thank the Lord this heatwave is almost over. Fall cant get here soon enough.

by **buddy17474** 2012-07-03, 1:06 am

My city recorded 103 on June 29th and the high today was 98. Luckily we've seen a little rain.

by Vanster67 2012-07-03, 7:00 am

So nice to step out the door of the house in early evening and not faint at the heat. A few thunder storms put the cool down here in Monterey (the Plateau) yesterday evening. A decent wind blowing, much needed rainfall, and some great lightning/thunder ( storms were strong but non-severe) enjoyable non-the less. rock on

50% percent chance of thunderstorms today. Bring it!.

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