Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

I hope all get big snow across Tennessee this year. As i was reading one post they said they remember back in the 70's when it was fun times, i guess they were speaking of Nashiville maybe. But i also remember the 70's and it was not a good time for people living in SE, Tn. I also remember back when i was a kid in the late 50's and it seem like we got a lot of good snows in SE, TN. In the 70's expect for a inch or two of snow from time to time if i wanted to see snow i would drive up to the Smokie Mts if hwy 441 was not close. We have done well these last 2 out of 3 winters with over a foot of snow for the Chattanooga area. Last winter we got nothing like most everyone else. Things change, but then again they have a way of changing back to where they were. How long will this take ? I wish i knew. But keep your head up and it will come around. New Years event look like about the same as last week. Have not look this morning to see any data. Hope you get some good snows this winter

Freezing rain and sleet into my area this morning.

Todays storm is taking almost the exact same track as the last storm.

Rain and sleet at 12:25. temp 40.

JKL and MRX are at odds with each other on unelevated areas with tonights forecast. JKL thinks it will be cold enough for their whole CWA to change over from rain to snow tonight. MRX on the other hand thinks it will be all rain with lows down into the mid 30's. May get interesting on the plateau and north sections of the valley as precip type will be a tough forecast.

Another thing about this winter so far. Bastardi linked a picture yesterday of Northern Hemisphere snow cover and it showed the NH being above average by quite a bit. So it is snowing somewhere in lower than usual latitudes (which isn't surprising considering the predominant -AO)...just not here. We can't seem to get into a decent pattern.

problem we got right now is, we are currently in a nice split flow pattern... thats a good thing... but, the southern stream is over powering the northern way to much... this isnt allowing enough cold air to get drawn in to the system to provide us some winter weather... i really like the period last wk of january perhaps last 2 weeks into first half of february to cash in on a big time winter storm threat for the midsouth

holy crap batman... finally some good news from my ole boy brett anderson... he is thinking no doubt last two weeks of january some really good cold weather will finally settle in over the eastern 2 thirds of the country... especially after the 20th of january... he says the weekly euro keeps getting colder n colder in the long range... brett has been pretty much spot on for as long as i have read his blogs... and now twc, which i dont put much faith in at all... is saying colder than normal for the eastern 2 thirds also

tennessee storm09 wrote:problem we got right now is, we are currently in a nice split flow pattern... thats a good thing... but, the southern stream is over powering the northern way to much... this isnt allowing enough cold air to get drawn in to the system to provide us some winter weather... i really like the period last wk of january perhaps last 2 weeks into first half of february to cash in on a big time winter storm threat for the midsouth

Yep, good post. I posted about this around a week ago. The models were waffling back and forth with some showing some real cold solutions. This that were had a much more dominant northern stream.

As for cashing in on an event. I'd like to get a good event in the middle of January. Those have a good chance of sticking around for a while.

I'll take it!

The rich get richer, and reports of 6 inches of snow in missouri...

tennessee storm09 wrote:holy crap batman... finally some good news from my ole boy brett anderson... he is thinking no doubt last two weeks of january some really good cold weather will finally settle in over the eastern 2 thirds of the country... especially after the 20th of january... he says the weekly euro keeps getting colder n colder in the long range... brett has been pretty much spot on for as long as i have read his blogs... and now twc, which i dont put much faith in at all... is saying colder than normal for the eastern 2 thirds also

ok i just got way to exited! i really hope this is right! i would love a white 21st birthday. i got snowed in the house on my 18th, but i did not have a 4x4 truck yet than. now i do so if i’m even back in town i will be going out. i think i’ll be back from western New York by my birthday.

DT seems to think that the Jan 2-4 system may be a bigger deal than guidance currently suggests. He thinks that parts of TN, NC, VA could see some significant snow, or even ice.

I'm not saying that I agree with him, but it was some interesting analysis, for those that haven't seen it.
It was based on today's 12z runs.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DAxd1mNUeXw

interestiing read on the longer range from kpah, paducah ky. cwa arear just to my north... saying by nex weekend overnight lows could approach near 0, especially along and east of the 164 corridor...course they are covered under a nice snow pack also... but it does seems like miuch colder is trying to work its way down further south... think some interesting times lie ahead in next month... we c i guess.

Thanks for the video. I hate to be a Doomday kind of guy but i really think he is grabing at something that's not there. If in fact if that is a true artic high it will slide the low off and out to sea. Which many of you know a very strong high will do that to any system 9 times out of 10. Our Lows we been getting have been coming up into Tennessee or North of us and it's a classic cold chasing rain with left overs. These are not good snow makers for us. I myself think for tennessee people north of me will once again be eating left overs at best. Now the mountains kind of make there own weather. But we got to have something better than this. As i have said many times before i have been wrong and hope i am wrong again.

We are getting some NW flow action in Dyersburg this morning. Cars and houses turning white. Flizzard of tiny flakes. Showing up good on radar.

As the plume of moisture from the great lakes moves into the area this afternoon via NW flow steep lapse rates may help the snow showers become more convective in nature. This could make them behave similar to summer time popcorn t-storm cells. Of course there will be no thunder but individual cells/squalls could become intense from time to time.

The HRRR I think is hinting at this.

Meanwhile the Canadian now has a nice winter storm for the SE during teh New Years timeframe.

Come to daddy!

snow in north Ala Thur AM per the Canadian model

No snow in Chatty. We have had a few rain showers with temps holding steady at 38°. Maybe Wed/Thurs timeframe will pan out.

36 here in maryville with light rain. MRX doesnt seem to think it will ever change to snow

Its been spitting snow out in NE Knoxville, Jefferson City, and Morristown for a couple of hours now. Mixed with sleet, but definitely not rain here

DT at wxrisk says the new ensemble mean shows a possible ice storm over Tenn, northern gulf states...says 4-8 inches of snow here at Huntsville, or an ice storm, or perhaps some of both

Reb wrote:36 here in maryville with light rain. MRX doesnt seem to think it will ever change to snow

Temps are above freezing in the low levels (925mb) in extreme eastern parts of the state but these are being pushed eastward by the cold advection regime. Precip type will be all snow shortly

keithinala wrote:DT at wxrisk says the new ensemble mean shows a possible ice storm over Tenn, northern gulf states...says 4-8 inches of snow here at Huntsville, or an ice storm, or perhaps some of both

Yep..ensembles are already on the NW trend. Be interesting to see how this plays out.

Snow falling here with a temperature at 33 degrees.