Presidents Day System

Big Lakes Cutter the day after P-day.

Yep, this one looks like Jamarcus Russel/Ryan Leaf... massive potential, zero production... grrrr screw Winter

Since it is only Tuesday, maybe things will look better later. I keep hearing we can't really rely on the models until the V-Day storm has passed.

John1122 wrote:Big Lakes Cutter the day after P-day.

Check out the Ensemble mean, much different look.

snowdog wrote:

John1122 wrote:Big Lakes Cutter the day after P-day.

Check out the Ensemble mean, much different look.

The models are just all over the place right now. I honestly think it may be after Saturday when that system moves through before anything gets settled.

FWIW the CMC and NOGAPS both have had very well organized and major winter storms somewhere in the eastern US for the last two runs. I know those models are horrible models but they are a perfect example of how favorable the pattern is for a really strong storm. Due to this aspect I will be watching guidance for a couple more days before totally writing this one off

Well we are beginning to get into the top of the 9th inning on winter. So far for most of Tenn this has been a dud only a little better for me as i did get to see snow cover the ground this year unlike last year. I think this weekend system other than colder temps will also be a dud except maybe the NE or Smokie Mts. But there alway a wild card in the deck. But as i write this am thinking about next winter. Over all this winter has been mild to warm in most of Tenn. People are beginning to talk spring now. But i still hold out for something before it over. But for my area this weekend for the most part it will be nothing more than maybe a few snfl and a cold day on Saturday.

Toot, What does the Euro show at around 220 to 228 ? This might be in the wrong thread but close to time frame.

Guy's need patience! Calm down! Give it til Thursday before we call it off. The energy still isn't on the mainland yet! We need to watch the front that is stalled to our south. To see how far south and east it goes this week! If it doesn't go off the east coast and the trough that comes in fri is little west then the poss storm will form on the front to our south and ride the front hopefully it the front doesn't go offshore then it will be game on!! Watch models tomorrow and thur!

For most of Tenn this is a quick shot of cold air maybe a snfl or snsh in your favorite places because cold air rings out any moisture that is left in the clouds. Rest of this month looks rainy not much if any cold air. There were no blocking this year and nothing came together. Dud #2 as in 2 years in a row.

This should be labeled The Storm that Never Was... or heck even The Typical Tennessee Snowstorm... typically, we get threats to track in the Winter, but for one reason or another the system just doesn't materialize the way it should. Thus, the Typical TN Snowstorm

Yeah, this is the typical-looks good until within 5 days, then poof, no good. This is the Upper South, though, so we should be able to manage some legitimate threats that materialize, and we did, at least in NE TN. So far, we've had 8.5 inches in the Morristown, Jeff City area. A little less around Knoxville. I don't know though exactly how much, how much Knox guys? Then from Johnson City/Bristol area, they are approaching 14in there, at least in Bristol. So, it's been a decent winter up in this area thus far.

As far as this system goes--don't expect more than flurries at best. If an impulse or two shows up along the arctic front, then maybe a little more. I'm with you though, this one has had so much potential...it just phases about 12-15 hours too late
Maybe, we can get a more traditional winter season next winter, one with some blocking, and less progressiveness, so that systems like this one can slow down and phase better!

MRX thinks there could be a little flakeage:

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THROUGH
THE EXTENDED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SW THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH WARMING TREND. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
FRIDAY. AVAILABLE MOISTURE LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY EVENING. THIS SNOW WILL
CONTINUE AS UPSLOPE SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
GETS UNDERWAY AS LARGE COLD SOURCE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NW. COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING. RETURN FLOW AND
WARM UP BEGINS ON MONDAY. STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND
AND MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT. POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD.

Lol, well, the 0z GFS says "you shouldn't have written off the rest of the winter after all. Here is what falls through Sat. AM. Basically, it brings some energy through along and behind the cold front. Is it right? I don't know, we'll see, but it's better than nothing.

Yeah! That's why this one I said I would wait until the thur morning models sample the energy that just came on land today! Give 24hrs from when the system enters. May be something better on the runs tomorrow! If not then it's DEAD JIM!!!!!!!

UKMET is on board with a light event also

It looks like the best snow event we have seen in two years in my area TOOT.

I'd like to see that come to pass. I was gone to Chattanooga for two of the times it snowed here this year, including the 5 inch snow during the clipper train two weekends ago. My biggest snow otherwise was the 2 inches I got when all you guys East and SE of me got 3-5.

This is the crazy train of models. Here now gone tomorrow, lol. What's your thoughts on any accumulation for South Knoxville, now that we're 2 days out? Pray for snow!!!!

Joereb, I think flizzards are in order here, lol. maybe a dusting to half an inch in some isolated areas. We are just too far West to cash in on the goodies here. Could be decent in the Mtns. though. I'd say Leconte and the other high elevations, along with the N Plateau could get more than that. Just my first guess though. 12Z GFS still has some members that paint a little more for the valley, and most of the members paint a little light snow, but it's not much. Thing is the Canadian has thicknesses of around 510 entering N TN--that should make for some high ratio snow. It's certainly not a question on boundary layer once that front goes through for sure. If we could just get the trough axis further west, we could get more into the action. Lol, the winter of if's and but's--If if's and but's were candy and nuts we'd all have a Merry Christmas, lol!

I here that, lol. I guess it's another wait and see. I got over 3" in the mid January event but then nothing on the last one. Trough axis go west my friend!!

Looks like mostly rain tomorrow with this one. Maybe a few snow showers on the backside, GFS was 20 degrees or so too cold 5 days ago. It's amazing how badly it handled this timeframe within 4 days.

I see two waves of precip with this..the initial cold front tomorrow and some upper level (secondary front) energy Saturday. The initial cold front will be rain in the valley with secondary front providing enough lift for snow showers but any accumulations would be very light if at all. The euro paints a dusting on most of the state but I have my doubts. Of course..the southern valley gets burnt as usual!


LOL

Also this system looked real cold, now not so much. They first had highs in my area mid to upper 30's for day time highs now 40 to low 40's. And lows with an arctic front only in the low 20's this is not an arctic front. Not in my book.