Re: Presidents Day System

by **windstorm** 2013-02-11, 1:50 pm

GFS is back on board for snow come Saturday on the 6 utc run i look at just now. 12 utc is not as wet. 18 utc well it more or less gone right now. One thing about the GFS is it has lock onto cold weather for many runs now. So we will see. wash

by **Toot** 2013-02-11, 2:01 pm

6z zGFS

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by **keithinala** 2013-02-11, 4:19 pm

windstorm wrote:GFS is back on board for snow come Saturday on the 6 utc run i look at just now. 12 utc is not as wet. 18 utc well it more or less gone right now. One thing about the GFS is it has lock onto cold weather for many runs now. So we will see.

18Z hasn't even started running yet
Edit: Not it's about time for it to start...so not sure what 18Z you meant....yesterdays?

by **windstorm** 2013-02-11, 4:36 pm

early today

by **tom23** 2013-02-11, 4:47 pm

windstorm wrote:early today

Windstorm, I believe you were referencing the 18z from yesterday. Correct me if I'm wrong though. It is very easy to make that mistake, as I'm sure everyone has done it at least once.

by **windstorm** 2013-02-11, 5:34 pm

Yes that it tom. thanks. May be picking it up again on the latest run but it may be kind of weak. I will ck it later thanks. wash

by **windstorm** 2013-02-11, 5:54 pm

The GFS is showing a lot colder air than our local weathermen are predicting. for this up coming weekend.

by **Jed33** 2013-02-11, 5:59 pm

18z guys. I'm using my phone, but it looks good for a very big area of the s. Even s GA and AL get accumulating snow. On this run, E TN and the plateau do better than middle, but still maybe an inch or two there. WTN does as good as E TN too. Now b4 you say, middle TN screw again, its only been 1 run, lol, it could change at 0z and prob. Will

by **Toot** 2013-02-11, 6:12 pm

Yeah the 18z is quite goofy looking..confidence is certainly increasing on an accumulating snow event here in TN tho!
Latest GFS snowfall graphic posted in the members section.

by **keithinala** 2013-02-11, 7:28 pm

from Robert (foothills) at wxsouth:

We'll keep following this for both the Southeast and East Coast storm potential. One thing to watch is for excessive digging toward Texas on future runs..if that happens, an Amazing once a decade type Snowstorm will rip through the Southeast and up the East Coast. But you can't bank on it yet, since big snows are so rare , especially lately in the South. The Northeast stands the best shot at this storm, all things considered, but no guarantees yet for anyone.

by **Toot** 2013-02-11, 8:44 pm

If I miss an all out blizzard a couple hundered miles to my east I WILL BE PISSED!!! LOL
Presidents Day System - Page 4 F132

by **keithinala** 2013-02-11, 8:46 pm

let's take this
Presidents Day System - Page 4 18zensp008snow144

by **Toot** 2013-02-11, 9:13 pm

keithinala wrote:let's take this

by **tennessee storm09** 2013-02-11, 9:18 pm

Toot wrote:Gotta get the bread and milk video

LMAO ! if that storm onn the 18zgfs verifies early next week... we bettet get a shit load of bread and milk...

by **etnwx** 2013-02-11, 9:22 pm

Toot wrote:
keithinala wrote:let's take this

LOL!

by **John1122** 2013-02-11, 9:34 pm

It's slowly working it's way back N and NW with the LP area after being perfect about 3-4 day ago. We'll see how far NW it will come.

by **tom23** 2013-02-11, 9:46 pm

Ultimately, I think there will be too much dry air to overcome and downsloping winds will cut back on amounts too. I think 1-2 inches is the very best central east tn could do with this system. Looks like it may also miss us to our east as well.

by **Toot** 2013-02-11, 10:07 pm

John1122 wrote:It's slowly working it's way back N and NW with the LP area after being perfect about 3-4 day ago. We'll see how far NW it will come.

I would think so too..very odd track is being shown now. Major winter cyclones have taken the low SE coastal track like that.. but they dont happen like that very often.

tom23 wrote:Ultimately, I think there will be too much dry air to overcome and downsloping winds will cut back on amounts too. I think 1-2 inches is the very best central east tn could do with this system. Looks like it may also miss us to our east as well.

You obviously are joking or you absolutely have no idea of what you're talking about LOL

by **orangeblood1985** 2013-02-11, 10:10 pm

tom23 wrote:Ultimately, I think there will be too much dry air to overcome and downsloping winds will cut back on amounts too. I think 1-2 inches is the very best central east tn could do with this system. Looks like it may also miss us to our east as well.

Sarcasm?

by **tom23** 2013-02-11, 10:12 pm

LoL toot, I'm trying to find something that could potentially cause this to bust or be a non event. I'm grasping at straws here. Moisture will be there and temps will be conducive. So unless it does take a more eastern track then we are in for a big dog

by **orangeblood1985** 2013-02-11, 10:12 pm

Toot,
What is your take of the shortwave trough digging into ok and tx on the 00Z NAM? Looks healthy... No?

by **tom23** 2013-02-11, 10:13 pm

orangeblood1985 wrote:
tom23 wrote:Ultimately, I think there will be too much dry air to overcome and downsloping winds will cut back on amounts too. I think 1-2 inches is the very best central east tn could do with this system. Looks like it may also miss us to our east as well.

Sarcasm?

Yeppers lol

by **Toot** 2013-02-11, 10:23 pm

orangeblood1985 wrote:Toot,
What is your take of the shortwave trough digging into ok and tx on the 00Z NAM? Looks healthy... No?

Yes..it looks as good or better than the 18z GFS at hr 90

by **ballpark** 2013-02-11, 10:25 pm

I am going to get me some popcorn watch the GFS run. popcorn

by **tom23** 2013-02-11, 10:26 pm

Toot wrote:
orangeblood1985 wrote:Toot,
What is your take of the shortwave trough digging into ok and tx on the 00Z NAM? Looks healthy... No?
Yes..it looks as good or better than the 18z GFS at hr 90

Sigh... all of these model runs are making me wanna icecream cone:hurry:

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