Re: Accumulating Snow Possible Mar 24-26

by **Toot** 2013-03-19, 9:30 pm

Lol I just seen someone on another forum compare a snow depth graphic (which represents many hours of previous snowfall) to an hours time on a sounding. lmao

This snow depth graphic is NOT just what happens at that particular hour!

This poster basically dismissed the whole accumulating snowfall event in west Tennessee due to an hour of time on a sounding that was indicative of a LL warm nose. Models dont paint snow in areas that have low level warm air the algorithim takes low level temps into account Razz

by **tennessee storm09** 2013-03-19, 10:45 pm

the 0z nam looked better for west tn for late thurs nite... 850 looks supportive for snow

by **Jscentraltn** 2013-03-19, 10:48 pm

The new NAM run is following 18z run of the GFS taking the heavy precip out of middle tn and puts it in sw Tennessee! It will be a heavy wet snow/ sleet for them. Sucks for me. Oh well! retard

by **Toot** 2013-03-19, 10:50 pm

0z NAM for west TN folk

12Km NAM
Accumulating Snow Possible Mar 24-26 - Page 2 Deb9dw

And yes low level temps will support this but the GFS is further south with the stripe of snow

4km HI RES NAM
Accumulating Snow Possible Mar 24-26 - Page 2 2m6jrz9

Accumulating Snow Possible Mar 24-26 - Page 2 2m6jrz9

by **Jscentraltn** 2013-03-19, 10:52 pm

Maybe west tn will have to much dry air to overcome!!!!!!! pffft

by **tennessee storm09** 2013-03-19, 10:55 pm

Toot wrote:0z NAM for west TN folk

12Km NAM

And yes low level temps will support this but the GFS is further south with the stripe of snow

4km HI RES NAM

yep, that wasnt a bad run for west tn toot... i be happy with just seeing some big fat sloppy wet flakes fly around. lol

by **Toot** 2013-03-19, 11:49 pm

A certain someone continues to downplay the possible snow in parts of west TN but back in realityville the NWS in Paducah has issued Winter storm watches just a hair north of Dyersburg TN for 3-6 inches of heavy wet snow.
retard

Code:: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 915 PM CDT TUE MAR 19 2013 .LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO OVERRIDE A VERY COLD DOME OF COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. MOZ100-107>110-114-201015- /O.CON.KPAH.WS.A.0001.130321T1800Z-130322T1500Z/ WAYNE MO-CARTER-RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-NEW MADRID- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN... POPLAR BLUFF...BLOOMFIELD...NEW MADRID 915 PM CDT TUE MAR 19 2013 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. * TIMING...IT NOW APPEARS THAT LIGHT SNOW WILL BREAK OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS FROM POPLAR BLUFF WESTWARD INTO THE OZARK FOOTHILLS. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES AS THE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO THE MISSOURI BOOT HILL REGION LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. * MAIN IMPACT...THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS EVENT WILL COME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE OZARK FOOTHILLS WEST OF POPLAR BLUFF. * OTHER IMPACTS...UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR IN PLACE PRIOR TO THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL AND THE FACT THAT THE MUCH OF THE EVENT WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT TIME HOURS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. MANY ROADWAYS COULD QUICKLY BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT WOULD GREATLY IMPACT TRAVEL. STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS. THIS WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING IF WINTER STORM CONDITIONS BECOME MORE CERTAIN.

by **keithinala** 2013-03-19, 11:54 pm

how about this from rpm
Accumulating Snow Possible Mar 24-26 - Page 2 207483_563381633695009_1549684902_n

by **keithinala** 2013-03-19, 11:58 pm

Toot wrote:A certain someone continues to downplay the possible snow in parts of west TN but back in realityville the NWS in Paducah has issued Winter storm watches just a hair north of Dyersburg TN for 3-6 inches of heavy wet snow.

Code:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 915 PM CDT TUE MAR 19 2013 .LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO OVERRIDE A VERY COLD DOME OF COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. MOZ100-107>110-114-201015- /O.CON.KPAH.WS.A.0001.130321T1800Z-130322T1500Z/ WAYNE MO-CARTER-RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-NEW MADRID- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN... POPLAR BLUFF...BLOOMFIELD...NEW MADRID 915 PM CDT TUE MAR 19 2013 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. * TIMING...IT NOW APPEARS THAT LIGHT SNOW WILL BREAK OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS FROM POPLAR BLUFF WESTWARD INTO THE OZARK FOOTHILLS. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES AS THE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO THE MISSOURI BOOT HILL REGION LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. * MAIN IMPACT...THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS EVENT WILL COME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE OZARK FOOTHILLS WEST OF POPLAR BLUFF. * OTHER IMPACTS...UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR IN PLACE PRIOR TO THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL AND THE FACT THAT THE MUCH OF THE EVENT WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT TIME HOURS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. MANY ROADWAYS COULD QUICKLY BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT WOULD GREATLY IMPACT TRAVEL. STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS. THIS WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING IF WINTER STORM CONDITIONS BECOME MORE CERTAIN.

Yeah, I'm always amazed at how some are so hostile towards anything showing snow...and it's like that all winter, not just because it's March

by **Toot** 2013-03-20, 12:01 am

keithinala wrote: Yeah, I'm always amazed at how some are so hostile towards anything showing snow...and it's like that all winter, not just because it's March

Exactly Keith..good luck to you on the RPM there Smile

by **keithinala** 2013-03-20, 12:15 am

by **keithinala** 2013-03-20, 6:26 am

by **Jed33** 2013-03-20, 6:57 am

Lol at the GFS. Gives everyone but the plateau and Tri-Cities accumulating snow. Also a tiny sliver around Knoxville doesnt get anything. That is a wacky snowfall map. I guarantee thats not right. No way Morristown gets something when the plateau misses out. This one looks more favorable for W TN Middle TN, N MS, and AL/GA. How on earth it just decides to throw up a small blip around the lakeway area is funny.

by **Toot** 2013-03-20, 9:11 am

NAM continues to trend south with west TN over-running threat

Snow depth
Accumulating Snow Possible Mar 24-26 - Page 2 2937n1c

Accumulated snowfall
Accumulating Snow Possible Mar 24-26 - Page 2 V6hnwz

by **windstorm** 2013-03-20, 12:56 pm

Where lest we might see some snow down here. I will take it, if it's only a few flakes.

by **Toot** 2013-03-20, 4:50 pm

12z EURO and CMC both came significantly south again today. If the euro is correct and trends any further south it will be a crazy good snow storm. Here you can see secondary cyclogenesis taking over much more quickly than previous model runs. Interesting storm system this late in the year
Accumulating Snow Possible Mar 24-26 - Page 2 30bzi8g

Accumulating Snow Possible Mar 24-26 - Page 2 30bzi8g

by **John1122** 2013-03-20, 7:51 pm

Very windy/cold/snow this evening. Wet nickel and quarter sized flakes blowing in sideways.

by **Snowfia** 2013-03-20, 7:58 pm

Quiet a change outside from 600pm to 800pm. Wind blowing starting to sleet/snow in Southern Campbell County.

by **John1122** 2013-03-20, 8:31 pm

Snowfia wrote:Quiet a change outside from 600pm to 800pm. Wind blowing starting to sleet/snow in Southern Campbell County.

It's been snowing some big flakes up here on the mountain.

by **etnwx** 2013-03-20, 8:40 pm

Sleet mixed with rain here in NW Knox county (for a short time).

by **Jed33** 2013-03-20, 8:54 pm

Snowing in Morristown currently. 37 degrees

by **Snowfia** 2013-03-20, 9:22 pm

Just sleeting here now. I just don't have the elevation like John probably has. My elevation is only about 1200 to 1300 feet. The wind is whipping though.

by **Math/Met** 2013-03-20, 10:01 pm

Snowing in Greeneville as well. We actually had a brief dusting of snow on the grass and cars.

by **John1122** 2013-03-21, 12:45 am

GFS has left the lakes and brings the low from Southern Louisiana to SE Kentucky.

I have a feeling it's going to go a bit more South and East.

by **Toot** 2013-03-21, 8:28 am

John1122 wrote:GFS has left the lakes and brings the low from Southern Louisiana to SE Kentucky.

I have a feeling it's going to go a bit more South and East.

Yep..models starting to respond to the strong blocking. Probably going to get quite interesting pals

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