Accumulating Snow Possible Mar 24-26

From MRX:

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A STRONG NEGATIVE TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE MID-SECTION OF THE NATION TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. STRONG UPPER JET STRUCTURE WILL PRODUCE LARGE SCALE LIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER JET WILL ENHANCE THE
FRONTO-GENETIC FORCING ALONG A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SYNOPTIC FORCING TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY.

THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND DEEP CYCLOGENESIS WILL PRODUCE AN 850MB LOW-LEVEL JET OF 50-60KTS AFTER FROPA. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE ALONG WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TO PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY COOL THE VERTICAL TEMPERATURE COLUMN TO ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO SNOW.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE TERRAIN FEATURES ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ACCUMULATING SNOWS ARE LIKELY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...FAR EASTERN TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY THE NORTHER PLATEAU.

Sounds like a chance of snow at least in the air Sunday into Mon.

GFS showing a carbon copy of the last system where many places recieved light accumulations (About 2 inches here) I still think this could trend a bit further south but probably not a whole lot due to time of year. Once again the mountains are going to get pounded!

Is it me or is the system back to the west that should be moving south east moving more east? Even though I know there is a lot of dry air. Also the NAM run looked pretty decent for sun night mon morning! The energy for this storm is still off the coast maybe the later run tonight and tomorrow will come more south to put us in the heavy band of snow not Kentucky!

Here is MEG's forecast if someone in west TN hasnt seen it.


Looks pretty good to my eye..although it may be a little light!

Be interesting to see what happens. Temps are dropping across the river as the air becomes saturated. Jonesboro went from 42 to 34 and snow rather quickly.

already 2 inches reported on ground over near jonesboro ark... and still coming down... bulk of precip looks to be moving more east to me than southeast.... dyer, you should be getting something pretty soon, bud.

Light snow in the Burg.

Dyersburg Weather wrote:Light snow in the Burg.

You better put that bottle of Jack down...it doesn't snow in late March. Enjoy the late season snowfall.

snowdog wrote:

Dyersburg Weather wrote:Light snow in the Burg.

You better put that bottle of Jack down...it doesn't snow in late March. Enjoy the late season snowfall.

You mean Makers Mark.

I watch a web cam last last in Hardy, AR. And it was coving the ground very good. I have no ideal where Hardy, AR is ??? But the snow was coming down pretty good.

How long will the models flip flop? This is crazy last night the nam went way north and west now it is coming back south and east some! Who knows this sucks!

windstorm wrote:I watch a web cam last last in Hardy, AR. And it was coving the ground very good. I have no ideal where Hardy, AR is ??? But the snow was coming down pretty good.

Jonesboro had a solid 4 to 5 inches. Barely a slushy dusting here. Snowed for hours here but heavy precip was south and west of here.

i didnt get jack didley here... got a few quarter size flakes thats it. nothing stuck... bring me severe wx. im ready for it big time... i have been doing some extensive hard studying up on the severe knowlegde of things... i am steping it up on parameters n such... been doin this on line. its my love, i love severe weather.. expecially tonradoes

12z Euro continues its trend to transfer energy to the secondary surface low much quicker. Ideally we would want the sw trough to dig further south to help kill out that northern surface low. Probably a day late and a dollar short but as currently progged still expect 1-3" accumulations in upper east TN. Probably much more for the mountains where this could be one of the better upslope events of the season as there is a really extended period of time where cold advection flow dominates the region. I cant believe we are still talking about this type of pattern on March 22nd

I'm thinking a dusting to 1/2 inch below 2000 feet unless you get a lucky snow band after dark. Probably 2-4+ above 2000.

HPC/WPC Probabilities of snowfall greater than 1 inch

12z GFS is MUCH further south! Heavy Snow breaks out in Arkansas. Lets see what the 12z euro says...it has mostly been south of the GFS with this system. Will it also go south? To be or not to be..thats the question

Could be a fluke since SREF is much further north but here is 12z clown map

Toot wrote:12z GFS is MUCH further south! Heavy Snow breaks out in Arkansas. Lets see what the 12z euro says...it has mostly been south of the GFS with this system. Will it also go south? To be or not to be..thats the question

sure its the same song same verse... ne arkie may see something, then slp goes to the northeast, drags parts of the ohio valley into some snow and leaves us mostly a cold rain, maybe a clap of thunder or two, damn this boring pattern is getting old

tennessee storm09 wrote:

sure its the same song same verse... ne arkie may see something, then slp goes to the northeast, drags parts of the ohio valley into some snow and leaves us mostly a cold rain, maybe a clap of thunder or two, damn this boring pattern is getting old

Not boring for me..im above average on snowfall from this pattern. Looks like some more comin too

Toot wrote:

tennessee storm09 wrote:

sure its the same song same verse... ne arkie may see something, then slp goes to the northeast, drags parts of the ohio valley into some snow and leaves us mostly a cold rain, maybe a clap of thunder or two, damn this boring pattern is getting old

Not boring for me..im above average on snowfall from this pattern. Looks like some more comin too

coonsider yourself blessed, not lucky... you are in the five percent of the state that saw anything from this cruddy winter... please rip winter 2012 2013

Toot do you think with the ull going further south than predicted by the models will this come into play as far northern tn getting a better shot at some snow? Or will this not affect anything! I seen the new run of the gfs which the ensembles are even further south haven't looked at the euro yet still working! Thanks

Jscentraltn wrote:Toot do you think with the ull going further south than predicted by the models will this come into play as far northern tn getting a better shot at some snow? Or will this not affect anything! I seen the new run of the gfs which the ensembles are even further south haven't looked at the euro yet still working! Thanks

the plateau region should benefit from that situation up to ne tennessee and of course higher elevations... sure toot would agree

Jscentraltn wrote:Toot do you think with the ull going further south than predicted by the models will this come into play as far northern tn getting a better shot at some snow? Or will this not affect anything! I seen the new run of the gfs which the ensembles are even further south haven't looked at the euro yet still working! Thanks

If the ULL were to get south of TN then yeah alot of people would be golden but thats probably not going to happen. Of course the further south it is the better off everyone will be but as progged any possible accumulations in middle TN will be north of I-40 and will be very light maybe T-.5" I think the northern plateau and upper east TN will get .5-3" while elevations above 3000 ft get around 6-12 due to the extended NW flow event.

Since this will probably be the last accumulating snowfall in the region I thought I would scribble up a quick graphic for local folk.

This is how I see it playing out