Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

by **Ballcoach** 2014-02-11, 3:16 pm

Is this forecast falling apart for the Knoxville area? Wbir started the morning off with 1-3 prediction... everyone else was much higher, now everyone else has came to that 1-3 Mark. What has caused the drop in amount? Temps?

by **etnwx** 2014-02-11, 3:58 pm

Knox County...

Code:: ...Winter Storm Warning in effect from 10 am Wednesday morning until 7 am Thursday morning... The National Weather Service in Morristown has issued a Winter Storm Warning for snow...which is in effect from 10 am Wednesday morning until 7 am Thursday morning. * Event...significant snowfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches will be possible. * Timing...snow will begin mid morning on Wednesday...and will continue through Wednesday night. * Impacts...driving and walking will be dangerous on untreated roadways and sidewalks. Be prepared for snow covered roads and limited visibilities. Travel is discouraged. If travel is unavoidable...keep an extra flashlight...food...and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means severe winter weather conditions are expected or occurring. In addition...snowfall intensities will be heavy enough to substantially reduce visibilities at times.

by **etnwx** 2014-02-11, 4:48 pm

Knox county schools are closed tomorrow. rock on

by **Toot** 2014-02-11, 4:57 pm

Jed33 wrote:Toot, are you still sticking with your 2-4 for E TN

I think it will be a tight gradient the 2-4 I have on some counties may be a little too low. The more I look at guidance the more I think places like Newport, Maryville, Greenville etc..cities that set up against the mountains are going to get ROCKED! It wont surprise me at all to hear of 10+ inch amounts in those areas. I will do an updated graphic tonight.

I will be riding it out at teh foot of round Mtn near Del Rio, TN.. wish me luck on keeping power and warm..LOL!

by **Ballcoach** 2014-02-11, 5:45 pm

What's the deal with hurricane hunters dropping sonar is this storm. Saw the wbir tweet. What the purpose of this?

by **Pman1618** 2014-02-11, 6:06 pm

Do you guys think the euro has a grip on this system cause if it does, most of tennessee will be very happy.

by **Toot** 2014-02-11, 6:07 pm

Ballcoach wrote:What's the deal with hurricane hunters dropping sonar is this storm. Saw the wbir tweet. What the purpose of this?

To get better data to ingest into models!

My updated graphic
Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014) - Page 6 1743498_554734787967611_1770354266_n

Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014) - Page 6 1743498_554734787967611_1770354266_n

by **wxgeek** 2014-02-11, 6:15 pm

Ballcoach...good model output is dependent on good inputs. They're dropping buoys to get a better fix on the formation of the gulf low for the same reason they do for hurricanes, to improve the forecast.

I like any forecast that gives the Nashville area snow but I'm not counting on any of those being correct. We are in a serious screw zone this year.

by **VFL** 2014-02-11, 6:39 pm

Toot or anyone, I still need convincing mid levels are good to go. I know dynamic cooling "should" take care of this but as y'all know we've been here and done that before.

by **Toot** 2014-02-11, 6:51 pm

VFL wrote:Toot or anyone, I still need convincing mid levels are good to go. I know dynamic cooling "should" take care of this but as y'all know we've been here and done that before.

Lol..what exact level temps u wanna see? 700Mb?

by **Jscentraltn** 2014-02-11, 8:17 pm

Looks like the low is getting fired up in the gulf! I wish this thing would track more ne from were it's at than more east! But looking at the gem it even has me getting a couple of inches if it is true. I think this thing still has some wobble room. I won't sleep for watching radar trends tonight. Enjoy your stay toot!!! Post some pics for me. Maybe i will luck out on this one.

by **Toot** 2014-02-11, 8:47 pm

VFL wrote:Toot or anyone, I still need convincing mid levels are good to go.

I was joking around earlier but in all seriousnes..mid level temps are never a problem with snow around here, its your low level temps that create the "warm nose" on a skew-t/sounding..850-925mb

by **snowman72** 2014-02-11, 8:54 pm

Toot I think this storm is looking juicy from our where about.

by **VFL** 2014-02-11, 9:13 pm

RAP blasts Tennessee. BTW the low formed over land not in the gulf. The RAP has picked up on that. Toot I ment low levels. I'm having a bad day. Anyway we're the RAP at 16h

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by **connerconner** 2014-02-11, 9:17 pm

Does that mean a farther NW low VFL?

by **Toot** 2014-02-11, 9:20 pm

snowman72 wrote:Toot I think this storm is looking juicy from our where about.

It is..the more I look at it..it will be the biggest snow here in many years!!

by **Pman1618** 2014-02-11, 9:26 pm

Wow even us in nashville could luck out on this one if that comes to happen! Maybe the euro has been right all along! I can only hope

by **Ballcoach** 2014-02-11, 9:29 pm

What is the difference in the low forming over land v over water? Does one mean a stronger storm?

by **VFL** 2014-02-11, 9:51 pm

Ballcoach wrote:What is the difference in the low forming over land v over water? Does one mean a stronger storm?

I was wrong the low did develop over water but just barely. I think if the RAP is right the snow totals will need to be raised state wide.

by **Pman1618** 2014-02-11, 10:05 pm

That's what I'm talkin bout

by **Pman1618** 2014-02-11, 10:13 pm

I just hope the euro run at 2 am holds the idea of statewide accumulations.

by **Neals** 2014-02-11, 10:47 pm

The cold air is coming from the northeast. The cold air is basically hitting the moisture coming from the south west head to head. I like. Twisted Evil