Snow Potential Late December

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:

Southeastbutter wrote:Someone say something interesting.. (weather related, I don't care about your personal lives haha)

The 0zgfs is running

LOL @ the smily face... but yeah, bring that snowsotrm on gfs!

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:

Southeastbutter wrote:Someone say something interesting.. (weather related, I don't care about your personal lives haha)

The 0zgfs is running

that smiley is boss.



GO NORTH MY FRIEND

im feeling chatty

how did the ensembles look?

The Ensembles aren't nearly as dry as the OP, but still only shows very light precip. Possibly snowflurries on the 26th/27th timeframe.

6z says bye bye storm again

No Snow got ya Down? How is Santa gona make it here with no Dadburn Snow Fallin? Everybody knows his sleigh is held magically aloft by the power of the winter Snowflake. What are we going to do? No Snow? No Problemo!!! We're gona hit it hard , Pour it on a little harder and just keep suckin down the sauce until yes, there out the corners of our collective eyes we see SNOW falling from the sky with Santa Claus and his sleigh floating on the beautiful snowflakes as his Trusty Team Of Pink Elephants..... PINK ELEPHANTS!!!!!! OHHHhhh. I think I need to stick with light beer. [img][/img]

Jeez the 6z looks pitiful I think something went wrong in that run. We can get no cold air down here.

Vanster67 wrote:No Snow got ya Down? How is Santa gona make it here with no Dadburn Snow Fallin? Everybody knows his sleigh is held magically aloft by the power of the winter Snowflake. What are we going to do? No Snow? No Problemo!!! We're gona hit it hard , Pour it on a little harder and just keep suckin down the sauce until yes, there out the corners of our collective eyes we see SNOW falling from the sky with Santa Claus and his sleigh floating on the beautiful snowflakes as his Trusty Team Of Pink Elephants..... PINK ELEPHANTS!!!!!! OHHHhhh. I think I need to stick with light beer. [img][/img]

LOL!! Classic post Van, classic post..

The 0z cmc has the snowstorm but its delayed a day..

fine with me toot

Euro is rolling.

Lol...this storm is gonna sneak up on somebody...one model loses it while another model picks it up.

It also looks to be trending to more of ULL enhanced threat which will mean we wont know anything for sure until like a day before but I dont like what i'm seeing for east TN at this point

Bastrdi's map for the next three storms from his fb/twitter

blahhhhh!!!! NE tennessee only? lol

Reb wrote:blahhhhh!!!! NE tennessee only? lol

I just cant get past the three storm call map

I could use the dart board in my garage and get just as good of a prediction on that third storm track. Who the hell knows at this point? Looks like he doesn't have as many nifty map making tools at his new gig as he did at Accu. Had to bust out MS Paint for that one.

Adam2014 wrote:Jeez the 6z looks pitiful I think something went wrong in that run. We can get no cold air down here.

adam, we are not going to get any sustain true cold air down hee until we get some high lattitude blocking bro, lets just hope this changes man.

GFS coming back around?

Reb wrote:GFS coming back around?

If you mean snow, not quite. Knoxville Skew-T 06z GFS at 102hrs.

snowdog wrote:
If you mean snow, not quite. Knoxville Skew-T 06z GFS at 102hrs.

Would you mind explaining how that skew T works so people can understand what you're talking about...Not saying its real useful at over hundred hours out or anything, but a little explanation would be nice to go along with the graphic if you dont mind?

The GFS and the cmc sucked, the GFS had a storm but it was too warm. These models are jumping all over the place.

Models are models. Not cash in the bank! J Bastardi mentions the JMA (for what it's worth) in his twitter feed. He still thinks it could snow in NE TN with the 3rd storm. Only time will tell. I mean winter just started right? I'll wait till winter is truly over to complain about it.

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:

snowdog wrote:
If you mean snow, not quite. Knoxville Skew-T 06z GFS at 102hrs.

Would you mind explaining how that skew T works so people can understand what you're talking about...Not saying its real useful at over hundred hours out or anything, but a little explanation would be nice to go along with the graphic if you dont mind?

I'll give it a shot.

Red Line is Temp.
Green line is Dew Point Tmp.
Blue line is Wet Bulb Temp.

Y axis is your Pressure. 850 corresponds to your 850mb maps. 500 corresponds to 500mb. Etc. Usually the colored lines stop at the ground location. X axis is temperature in Celsius.

So find the 0 on the x axis and that is the freezing mark. Work your way up the diagonal line starting at the 0 mark. On the graph I showed you can see the column doesn't start to hit freezing till 850mb's. Meaning the lower levels from about a mile up in the air down to the ground are too warm to support frozen precip.

Also you can see the colored lines come together at 500mb and stay together. This is indicative of a saturated column. In say a virga storm you may see them together from 500 to 850 then spread apart meaning the whole column isn't saturated thus while it looks like precip on a radar it isn't making it to the ground.

Sleet signature would have warm temps aloft and cold temps from about 850 down. Freezing rain would show warm air aloft and a cold layer right at the surface.

There is also a way to interpret snow growth regions from the skew-t but I'm not very good explaining that as I don't understand that facet of the graph fully.