Re: Snow Potential Late December

by **Stovepipe** 2011-12-24, 3:54 pm

NAM still showing back side snow showers for the 27th. Hard to tell from the 6 hour precip maps just how much would fall as snow. At least it's something to watch.

by **Stovepipe** 2011-12-24, 8:29 pm

Scratch that, the NAM text output says the surface never cools enough. Just cold rain, at least in the valley. The Euro shows some possible flakage but still marginal temps.

by **Toot** 2011-12-25, 8:47 am

Models continue to trend a little colder with this system. Could be a sneaky little ________. wash

by **Adam2014** 2011-12-25, 4:20 pm

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:Models continue to trend a little colder with this system. Could be a sneaky little ________.

12z and 18z NAM trend colder! rock on

by **Reb** 2011-12-25, 4:45 pm

trending colder but precip inside the cold shield will be tough to come by especially for east tennessee.

by **Toot** 2011-12-25, 10:40 pm

If models are correct nobody will see much of anything with this system....but as with any ULL keep an eye on radar.

by **John1122** 2011-12-26, 12:10 am

00z GFS shows a decent chance of minor snow accums across West Tennessee and most of Kentucky. Still being a scrooge outside of the mountains in East Tennessee.

by **Toot** 2011-12-26, 3:28 pm

Models still trending colder and This is starting to get interesting....MRX is being rather bullish and using the words "Light Snow" instead of snow showers or flurries.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW
TUESDAY NIGHT. GOOD CONDITIONS WILL BE BRIEF WITH A TOUCH OF CAPE
AVAILABLE ALONG WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND MODERATE UPSLOPE NW
FLOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WEAK WARMING. SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY SUPPRESSES RIDGE OVER MRX CWA. WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...FAVORING NORTHERN AREA. LOW CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SW VA FRI NGT. WARM UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. NEXT COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING.

I would think this could be more of a threat to areas north of I-40 if anything materializes sneaky

This system has been a headache trying to figure out smoke

by **Toot** 2011-12-26, 3:33 pm

SREF snow probabilities for wednesday

Snow Potential Late December - Page 4 Ftyp39

JKL..Jackson KY just north of MRX

THE MOST CHALLENGING PART OF THE FORECAST IS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS OVER TO A RAIN SNOW
MIXTURE AND EVENTUALLY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO BE TOO WARM FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW
EARLY ON...AND THEN AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN WE LOSE THE DEEP MOISTURE.
WHILE MANY AREAS SHOULD SEE SNOW IN THE AIR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW
STILL APPEARS LIMITED DO EXPECT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE
HIGHEST RIDGES ALONG THE VA BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT.

by **Adam2014** 2011-12-26, 5:16 pm

Well Ohx missed my high today by ten degrees I only made it to 42.

by **Toot** 2011-12-26, 8:28 pm

18z GFS NW-flow snow showers for upper east TN

Snow Potential Late December - Page 4 2011122618_EUS_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_030

by **Adam2014** 2011-12-26, 8:48 pm

Very fast mover, I don't think the cold air will catch up. I hope it will but I just can't see it.

by **Toot** 2011-12-26, 8:51 pm

Adam2014 wrote:Very fast mover, I don't think the cold air will catch up. I hope it will but I just can't see it.

Soundings support it also...probably light accumulations in the higher terrain with token flakes in the valley but as with most NW flow events it looks to be only upper east TN that sees this

by **Adam2014** 2011-12-26, 8:53 pm

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:
Adam2014 wrote:Very fast mover, I don't think the cold air will catch up. I hope it will but I just can't see it.

Soundings support it also...probably light accumulations in the higher terrain with token flakes in the valley but as with most NW flow events it looks to be only upper east TN that sees this

Well good night to discuss in the chat room.

by **John1122** 2011-12-27, 12:48 am

Actually had some pretty hard sleet earlier before it went over to rain. 35 degrees currently with plain old "blah" outside.

MRX has now shifted slight chance snow showers into the forecast tomorrow night.

by **John1122** 2011-12-27, 3:18 am

As of the latest update MRX moved me to 50 percent snow tomorrow night, using the accumulation under an inch in areas above 3000 feet here in the county,

by **John1122** 2011-12-27, 4:48 am

MRX issues a WWA for snow for the normal upslope areas in SW VA, and Blount County North in the Smokies.

Hope we can get a few upslope flakes flying here.

by **Toot** 2011-12-27, 9:17 am

Interesting....this is a pretty wound up system and im still waiting on nice NW flow event popcorn

Hopefully this one pans out

by **Stovepipe** 2011-12-27, 10:15 am

Reports of snow mixing with rain in Henry County. Wind blowing pretty hard here in Dekalb County right now.

by **Toot** 2011-12-27, 11:48 am

Upper low really starting to crank up as convection around it is intensifying..it will be interesting to see how strong cold advection is...MRX is even giving chances of snow in valley locations

Snow Potential Late December - Page 4 Anim_serc

Snow Potential Late December - Page 4 Anim_serc

by **Adam2014** 2011-12-27, 12:03 pm

Well I am at 39 degrees with rain. Dang it.

by **Toot** 2011-12-27, 2:38 pm

The HRRR seems to be too warm for valley locations but the nam could support some snow showers in the lower elevations but they would be pretty light. Parts of the plateau and smokies could do well as the HR is producing some vigorous upslope snow showers....be interesting to see how this turns out. Right now radar isnt impressive at all worry

by **Adam2014** 2011-12-27, 3:01 pm

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:The HRRR seems to be too warm for valley locations but the nam could support some snow showers in the lower elevations but they would be pretty light. Parts of the plateau and smokies could do well as the HR is producing some vigorous upslope snow showers....be interesting to see how this turns out. Right now radar isnt impressive at all

Radar is not looking good, OHX said the cold air undercut the precip drying everything out.

by **Toot** 2011-12-27, 3:08 pm

Adam2014 wrote:
Cyclonicjunkie wrote:The HRRR seems to be too warm for valley locations but the nam could support some snow showers in the lower elevations but they would be pretty light. Parts of the plateau and smokies could do well as the HR is producing some vigorous upslope snow showers....be interesting to see how this turns out. Right now radar isnt impressive at all
Radar is not looking good, OHX said the cold air undercut the precip drying everything out.

Yeah the radar is very unimpressive but the HR and NAM are regenerating upslope flow snow tonight...hard to say if that will be the case though as its certainly hard to believe looking at radar now

by **Adam2014** 2011-12-27, 3:47 pm

Im thinking it is not going to happen lol.

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