Spring 2012 weather discussion

A huge, lingering ridge of high pressure over the eastern half of the United States brought summer-like temperatures to North America in March 2012. The warm weather shattered records across the central and eastern United States and much of Canada.
The unseasonable warmth broke temperature records in more than 1,054 locations between March 13–19, as well daily lows in 627 locations, according to Hamweather. Cities as geographically diverse as Chicago, Des Moines, Traverse City (Michigan), Myrtle Beach, Madison (Wisconsin), Atlantic City, New York City, and Duluth, (Minnesota) all broke records for high temperatures in recent days.
The intensity and scope of the heat wave is clearly visible in this map of land surface temperature anomalies. Based on data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument on the Terra satellite, the map depicts temperatures compared to the average of the same eight day period of March from 2000-2011. Areas with warmer than average temperatures are shown in red; near-normal temperatures are white; and areas that were cooler than the 2000-2011 base period are blue.
Land surface temperatures are distinct from the air temperatures that meteorological stations typically measure. LSTs indicate how hot the surface of the Earth in a particular location would feel to the touch. From a satellite vantage point, the “surface” includes a number of materials that capture and retain heat, such as sand in the desert, the dark roof of a building, or the pavement of a road. As a result, daytime land surface temperatures are usually much higher than air temperatures—something that anyone who has walked barefoot across a parking lot on a summer afternoon knows from experience.
Records are not only being broken across the country, they're being broken in unusual ways. Chicago, for example, saw temperatures above 26.6°Celsius (80°Fahrenheit) every day between March 14-18, breaking records on all five days. For context, the National Weather Service noted that Chicago typically averages only one day in the eighties each in April. And only once in 140 years of weather observations has April produced as many 80°Fahrenheit days as this March. Meanwhile, Climate Central reported that in Rochester, Minnesota. the overnight low temperature on March 18 was 16.6°Celsius (62°Fahrenheit), a temperature so high it beat the record high of 15.5°Celsius (60°Fahrenheit) for the same date.

Toot wrote:Its going to be clear and cool tonight due to a canadian high pressure system thats dominating the region...It will feel quite cold compared to what we have been used to.

Frost may take hold along and north of I-40 with low temperatures ranging from near freezing in the mountains and in the low 40's southern east TN valley

Toot wrote:I wonder what the buffalo NY radar is picking up

Adam2014 wrote:It is fog for sure lol, that would be some wild snow there.

000
NOUS61 KCLE 062340
FTMBUF
Message Date: Apr 06 2012 23:40:38

THE BUFFALO RADAR IS EXPERIENCING HARDWARE ISSUES WHICH MAY CAUSE IT TO RUN IN A
DEGRADED MODE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED.

Toot wrote:

Adam2014 wrote:It is fog for sure lol, that would be some wild snow there.

Fog shouldnt show that high of a DBZ either

I found this

000
NOUS61 KCLE 062340
FTMBUF
Message Date: Apr 06 2012 23:40:38

THE BUFFALO RADAR IS EXPERIENCING HARDWARE ISSUES WHICH MAY CAUSE IT TO RUN IN A
DEGRADED MODE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED.

Some morning thoughts...

We've now moved into the coolest stretch for the Midwest/Great Lakes/East of the second week of April. However, if one takes a look at the 3-day mean anomalies for the Northern Hemisphere leading up to the April 8-15 period, one finds that there was not much notably cold air to be found on our side of the Hemisphere:



As a result, the cold is not likely to be very dramatic. It also is not likely to be prolonged. Consequently, the warmth will very likely outduel the cold in the Midwest/Great Lakes/East resulting in the April 8-15 period turning out on the warm side of normal in that area.

In the larger-scale picture, the continuing negative anomalies of the SOI indicate that the 2011-12 La Niña event has ended. Neutral to conditions are likely to predominate in the weeks ahead and borderline El Niño conditions may become likely at some point next month. ENSO anomalies alone are producing, among the raw analogs, 2002 and 2009 going forward. 2009 is a strong analog for the current month. It will be interesting to see if 2002 and/or 2009 hold up for the summer. 2002 featured a chilly May, but warm summer in the contiguous 48 states. In contrast, 2009 featured a warm May, but chilly summer in the contiguous United States. In Canada, May 2002 and May 2009 were chilly across most of the country. Summer 2002 was warm across much of central and southern Canada. Summer 2009 was cool across large parts of southern and central Canada. 2002 fits better with the observed decadal change in temperatures. While the analogs remain to be refined and subsequent ENSO data will be helpful, the overriding point is that one cannot automatically assume that the exceptional winter and early spring warmth will lead to a warm summer. A warm summer is on the table, but a cooler one is, too.

Stovepipe wrote:The latest from Don Sutherland:

Some morning thoughts...

We've now moved into the coolest stretch for the Midwest/Great Lakes/East of the second week of April. However, if one takes a look at the 3-day mean anomalies for the Northern Hemisphere leading up to the April 8-15 period, one finds that there was not much notably cold air to be found on our side of the Hemisphere:



As a result, the cold is not likely to be very dramatic. It also is not likely to be prolonged. Consequently, the warmth will very likely outduel the cold in the Midwest/Great Lakes/East resulting in the April 8-15 period turning out on the warm side of normal in that area.

In the larger-scale picture, the continuing negative anomalies of the SOI indicate that the 2011-12 La Niña event has ended. Neutral to conditions are likely to predominate in the weeks ahead and borderline El Niño conditions may become likely at some point next month. ENSO anomalies alone are producing, among the raw analogs, 2002 and 2009 going forward. 2009 is a strong analog for the current month. It will be interesting to see if 2002 and/or 2009 hold up for the summer. 2002 featured a chilly May, but warm summer in the contiguous 48 states. In contrast, 2009 featured a warm May, but chilly summer in the contiguous United States. In Canada, May 2002 and May 2009 were chilly across most of the country. Summer 2002 was warm across much of central and southern Canada. Summer 2009 was cool across large parts of southern and central Canada. 2002 fits better with the observed decadal change in temperatures. While the analogs remain to be refined and subsequent ENSO data will be helpful, the overriding point is that one cannot automatically assume that the exceptional winter and early spring warmth will lead to a warm summer. A warm summer is on the table, but a cooler one is, too.

tennessee storm09 wrote:give one, take one... so what he is saying, he doesnt have a clue

Earlier, I stated with respect to Summer 2012:

Even with the evolving ENSO, I'm unwilling to rule out a warm summer for the nation as a whole just yet, though I don't believe Summer 2012 will reach 2011's warmth (2nd warmest on record at 1.880 standard deviations above normal)...

The possibility of cool anomalies across part of the nation seems reasonably likely at this point, though there are some uncertainities concerning the location of those cool anomalies. Odds may favor somewhere in the eastern half of the U.S., possibly the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes area being a little more likely than other locations.

I took a further look. The incomplete analysis (on account for the need for additional later data) revealed:

Highest probability of cool anomalies in the East:

New England or Southeastern U.S. (not assured)

Highest probability of cool anomalies in the West:

California, possibly Oregon and parts of Washington (California seemed likely to be cool)

Highest probability of warm anomalies:

Southern Plains

FWIW, the latest CFSv2 ensemble members pointed to a somewhat warmer than normal summer in the contiguous U.S. The Southeast was shown as near normal. The Pacific Northwest, Great Lakes Area, New England, and parts of the Southern Plains had small areas of warm anomalies.

In any case, nothing is cast in stone. It's too soon for me to make a call with any kind of confidence. This is just an idea as to what some very early data seems to be suggesting might be plausible.

WxFreak wrote:A lot of virga around today. Radar had a shower go over my place earlier in the day, but all I had was some very gusty winds and a sprinkle. Dewpoints are still pretty depressed this evening.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A WARM FRONT WILL PULL NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY MID- MORNING AS LIFT WEAKENS. MODELS SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WARM FRONT PULLS NORTHEAST. ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR TONIGHT...A SHORT-WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH DIFLUENCE ALOFT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AIDING TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STEERING WINDS WILL PULL THIS AREA SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE.
ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MAIN CONCERN HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
703 AM EDT WED APR 25 2012

.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS TRI THROUGH 13Z. THESE SHOWERS MAY DROP VISIBILITIES TO 5 MILES. AFTERWARDS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES. FOR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...A MCS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST. THESE STORMS MAY INTO ALL TAF SITES 03-06Z TONIGHT. THESE STORMS COULD DROP VISIBILITIES AND CEILING TO MVFR CONDITIONS.