Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

by **Stovepipe** 2012-05-14, 8:46 am

I suppose it's possible that it was all a dream, but I recalling being jarred awake in the middle of the night by a single extremely loud crack of thunder. One of those that is deep and bellowing and shakes the house hard. It would have been between 1:00 and 3:00am. I remember thinking I should probably save a radar screenshot but fell back asleep. The wife doesn't remember. Did anyone else get a boomer? Maybe I'm losing my mind haha.

Regardless, my area got a nice rain that lasted all day and night, barely letting up. It's too bad that west TN got ripped off as they needed it badly. My mom reported only a couple of tenths in Henry County and that was with two bugs in the rain gauge haha.

by **Toot** 2012-05-14, 8:51 am

You're not losing your mind...I heard Thunder around 5am here in Mtown uh oh

by **WxFreak** 2012-05-14, 8:53 am

Stovepipe wrote:I suppose it's possible that it was all a dream, but I recalling being jarred awake in the middle of the night by a single extremely loud crack of thunder. One of those that is deep and bellowing and shakes the house hard. It would have been between 1:00 and 3:00am. I remember thinking I should probably save a radar screenshot but fell back asleep. The wife doesn't remember. Did anyone else get a boomer? Maybe I'm losing my mind haha.

Regardless, my area got a nice rain that lasted all day and night, barely letting up. It's too bad that west TN got ripped off as they needed it badly. My mom reported only a couple of tenths in Henry County and that was with two bugs in the rain gauge haha.

No need to worry, Stove. A storm actually moved through Knoxville during the night. Mike Witcher on WBIR mentioned it this morning. It's one of the reasons Knox county did so well rain-wise overnight.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-05-14, 8:57 am

Haha good to know! A guy at work heard it too, he thought it was later than 3am though. I can't believe my kids didn't wake up. One tiny squeak in the floor usually results in them balling but a thunder bomb going off and they snore right through it ha.

by **Adam2014** 2012-05-14, 8:16 pm

Very sluggish storm here, this is very good for rain. Areas in southern georgia were the worst.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-05-14, 11:48 pm

It was a great evening here. We avoided any additional rain flare ups, got a nice little stout breeze event, and the cool down was quite enjoyable. I have a pretty good view of the mountains to my east and there were some neat clouds that formed over in that direction. I noticed on the radar that some rain sort of hung around on the TN/NC border for several hours. It was like these large white clouds had a hard time making it over the ridges.

Also, as I tried to capture with my phone, there were these horizontal streaks of dark gray that appeared just west of the other clouds, in the foreground. It's possible those were associated with the little wind event that made it's way past me by six o'clock or so. I'm not up on my cloud-speak so maybe one of our cloud experts can explain the situation better.

Spring 2012 weather discussion - Page 11 E2fe185b

Spring 2012 weather discussion - Page 11 E2fe185b

It was cool to look at I know that.

by **WxFreak** 2012-05-15, 9:19 am

Nice pic of a towering cumulus, Stove. I got in on some of the that rain you see there. During the evening, I had a 20 minute downpour. I finally got over an inch of rain with this long, drawn out system, after getting another half-inch yesterday.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-05-16, 1:57 pm

Don Sutherland:

May 24-31, 2012 Thoughts:

For the week centered around May 9, the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly had risen to 0.0°C. That is the warmest ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly since the week centered around May 5, 2010. That recent warming despite a return of Easterly trade winds could hint at an El Niño event down the road. It also likely hints at a slower than usual Atlantic hurricane season.

More immediately, it appears May will end on a warmer than normal note across much of North America. The NAEFS are in good agreement with the picture painted by the teleconnection analogs.

The following charts are below:

Top: Teleconnection composite anomalies based on: ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies of -0.2°C to +0.5°C, a PNA of -0.50 to +0.50, and an AO of 0.00 to +1.00 for North America (1950-2011).

Bottom: 5/14/2012 GFS Ensemble 11-15-day 850 mb anomalies.

Taking into consideration the ensemble guidance, NAEFS, decadal trends, and teleconnection composite anomalies, I believe most of North America will experience warmer than normal temperatures for the May 24-31, 2012 timeframe. A portion of California and perhaps the north shore of Alaska could experience cooler than normal readings.

by **Toot** 2012-05-16, 4:52 pm

Knoxvegas got dumped on

799
SXUS74 KMRX 151221
RERTYS

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
821 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET YESTERDAY AT THE KNOXVILLE
AIRPORT...

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.63 INCHES WAS SET AT THE KNOXVILLE AIRPORT
YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.00 INCH SET BACK IN 1995.

by **Toot** 2012-05-17, 5:17 pm

Looks like the shaft today on any popcorn cells in the great Valley of east TN...noticed some towering suspects on the way home from work but those should be the decrease for the next few hours mad

by **WxFreak** 2012-05-18, 6:43 am

Went to walk a couple of miles in Sevierville last night with the dog. Noticed some huge cumulonimbus over in the mountains. Also saw some lightning within the clouds on the way home.

On a different note---this usually doesn't happen until summer:

ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-NORTHWEST COCKE-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-
JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
335 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2012

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE TENNESSEE DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT AND CONSERVATION HAS ISSUED AN AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY FOR THE KNOXVILLE AREA...IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY.

A CODE ORANGE AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR OZONE HAS BEEN ISSUED. GROUND LEVEL OZONE CONCENTRATIONS WITHIN THE REGION MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED UNHEALTHY STANDARDS. MEMBERS OF SENSITIVE GROUPS MAY EXPERIENCE HEALTH EFFECTS. THE GENERAL PUBLIC IS NOT LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED

Yuck. No wonder my allergies are going bezerk. One of the no-so-great things about living in the TN valley. All of the junk gets trapped between the Plateau and the Smokies.

by **WxFreak** 2012-05-18, 4:42 pm

Thunderstorm coverage a bit higher today than yesterday. Cells are moving backwards--towards the southwest. And the greatest coverage currently from Blount county and points southwest from there.

by **Toot** 2012-05-18, 5:36 pm

There looks to be somewhat of a short lived heat wave coming up near the end of the month. Temps may reach into the mid to high 90's as a very strong low pressure system creates an impressive.. pre frontal.. tropical fetch. This will not only mean widespread severe across the central to eastern U.S... but it will also fetch the hot tropical air.. in a strong southerly flow at the surface.

Spring 2012 weather discussion - Page 11 D9

Spring 2012 weather discussion - Page 11 D9

by **Toot** 2012-05-19, 10:01 am

And now the CMC/EURO/GFS all have the death ridge centered right over top of us in the extended facepalm

by **Toot** 2012-05-19, 10:22 am

Meanwhile it looks like we are going to get into a nice SW flow today that will spawn many popcorn cells

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr:&runTime=2012051911&plotName=cref_t6sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t6&wjet=1

by **Adam2014** 2012-05-19, 1:31 pm

Toot wrote:And now the CMC/EURO/GFS all have the death ridge centered right over top of us in the extended

We just can not stay away from a ridge....

by **WxFreak** 2012-05-19, 4:44 pm

Drier/more stable air circulating around the LP off the East Coast seems to have pushed most of the storms off to the south and west of the Great TN Valley today. Dewpoints have actually dropped most of the day into the upper 50's to near 60F. Actually a rather pleasant air mass with temps only in the lower 80's.

by **Toot** 2012-05-20, 9:11 am

Here is the euro and its scenario of our first subtropical high of the season in our region. I get a little nervous when I see these because even though models are saying this wont last long.. these type of HPS's usually like to hang around for a longer time than what the models suggest.

Spring 2012 weather discussion - Page 11 Msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!168!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2012052000!!chart

Spring 2012 weather discussion - Page 11 Msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!168!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2012052000!!chart

by **WxFreak** 2012-05-20, 10:25 am

Hopefully, we'll get some decent rain on Tuesday before this builds in. These highs are like mountains of stable air in the atmosphere. They aren't pushed out very easily. More often than not, they simply retrograde south and west for a time, before rebuilding.

It seems our above normal temperature streak continues. We'll be pushing 90F by next weekend--much above the norms for May.

by **WxFreak** 2012-05-20, 2:10 pm

Storms appear to be poppin' off to our south and west yet again today. popcorn

by **Toot** 2012-05-20, 11:27 pm

One ugly looking ridge
Spring 2012 weather discussion - Page 11 1zvbtl3

by **WxFreak** 2012-05-21, 8:39 am

I guess we’d better enjoy the relatively cooler and somewhat active weather today through Wednesday. Afterwards, the heat is on. Summer coming a month early—as did spring.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE ALIGNED RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AND MODELS STILL INDICATE A NICE SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND
COLD AIR ALOFT TO CRANK UP THE INSTABILITY AS HEATING BUILDS DURINGbTHE DAY. STAYED WITH A GRADIENT OF HIGHEST POPS EAST THROUGH LOWER POPS WEST FOR THE CONVECTIVE EVENT WITH SIGNIFICANT DROP OFF IN
PROBABILITY OVERNIGHT. APPARENTLY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN NO HURRY TO ENTIRELY DEPART THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. IN FACT MODELS SUGGEST A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW VERY NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WITH A POCKET OF MOISTURE TO BOOT. THEREFORE HELD ONTO SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR A SHOWER AND A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE GRADUALLY SLIPPING FURTHER AWAY TO THE NORTH AND EAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A MAJOR LEAGUE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS STEADILY NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MID SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE PARKED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE DROPPED POPS EVERYWHERE BUT THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SUBSIDENCE WARMING ALOFT SHUTS DOWN CONVECTION. GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE WARMING TREND SUGGESTED BY MOS WHICH ENDS UP WITH MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-05-21, 12:57 pm

East TN seeing a little bit of action this afternoon.

Spring 2012 weather discussion - Page 11 6h84lv

Edit:

Now up to half inch hail:

Spring 2012 weather discussion - Page 11 359zex0

by **WxFreak** 2012-05-21, 1:33 pm

Yep, a pretty good cluster of storms over Anderson Co. right now, drifting southeast toward Knox Co.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-05-21, 1:37 pm

More development on the plateau:

Spring 2012 weather discussion - Page 11 20gmbn9

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