Spring 2012 weather discussion

Toot wrote:
LMFAO!!

WxFreak wrote:Toot strikes again.

Toot wrote:lol..I thought it was appropriate..Anyways... if this pattern sticks around a while (and I think its mostly here to stay) the nails are being driven into the coffin of any organized spring Tornado outbreak here in the SE. Which could be a good or a bad thing depending on your view.

Maybe we can get some decent action come cane season!!

Toot wrote:This type of pattern is great in the winter but is totally boring to me.. during spring/summer.

Some morning thoughts....

1. May has started warm in much of the U.S. and Canada. Central Canada, a portion of western Canada, the Pacific Northwest, and New England are exceptions. There, cool weather has prevailed.

2. The SOI has been positive for 7 consecutive days, the 30-day moving average has gone positive, and the 90-day moving average remains slightly negative. With some exceptions, usually for stronger El Niño events, the transition to an El Niño can be discontinuous, with bursts of westerly winds that weaken the easterly trade winds followed by reversals. It's still too soon to be confident that an El Niño will develop during or after the summer, though the modeling favors an El Niño over Neutral ENSO conditions. Later MEI data could provide insight.

3. The ensembles show persistent heat in the Southwestern portion of the U.S. Over time, that area of heat is forecast to slowly expand. Some past analogs for May had the warmest anomalies relative to normal (not necessarily excessive heat) occurring after May 20, sometimes close to the end of the month.

4. Even a delayed El Niño would not necessarily mean an active hurricane season. The Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) Index, which measures the average SSTA in the region bounded by 5.5°N to 23.5°N and 15°W to 57.5°W, remains cool. The last year in which the TNA had cool spring anomalies was 2009. 2009 also saw the development of an El Niño. There were 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. There were an additional 2 tropical depressions. The 2009 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) figure for the Atlantic Basin was 53. The first tropical system was TD 1, which formed on May 28, 2009. The last was Hurricane Ida, which formed on November 4. Hence, at least at this point in time, it appears that a foundation for a less active than normal tropical season may be emerging. There may also be some risk of an early tropical system.

Math/Met wrote:Parts of East Tennessee are experiencing some downsloping today. Camp Creek has recorded wind gusts to around 50mph. Based on the wind profile, these gusts have a downslope component. That will likely decrease the rain totals today for the areas that normally experience southeasterly downslope issues.

Adam2014 wrote:I got 1-1.5 inches of much needed rain!

Toot wrote:Ive been in Sevierville all weekend and it has rained non stop about all day..No way of measuring it but I imagine there has been at least an inch or two of rain today...and its still pouring.

RAIN RAIN...GO AWAY

WxFreak wrote:
A friend of mine who lives between Morristown, Tn and Middlesboro, Ky (north of Bean Station) said it was mostly a drizzle there today. Most valley locations have been hindered rain-wise by at least some downsloping off the mountains.

WxFreak wrote:
Valley areas of central/north east TN have not seen nearly as much rain as was expected by the models. Local NWS also stated we'd see about 1-2 inches of rain with this system. Unless we lose the downsloping, we'll be lucky to see a quarter inch before the trough departs.