Winter Wx Discussion 2013/14

Yeah been seeing flurries off and on this morning. Even had a decent snow shower around 800 this morning. Temp has been dropping too. Now down to 32 degrees at noon.

there is a wind making it feel real cold today in Pville.

Its painful watching that shortwave progged in the extended range ride the southern stream right up through the TN valley over top of us!! Stay south young man..stay south!

We keep getting the cold air out west like last year. With very little if any blocking to help out. The cold air that was showing up few days ago is not there. We are getting blocking but not where we need it. We are getting block here in the SE. That's one of the reason when the cold air looks like it is coming it swings N and East of us. And will keep on doing this until a major change happens. If not, then do i need to say more. Yes it is December, and there still January, Feb, and March. Is this going to be the year it could have, would have, should have but didn't have. Is Tenn going to get another lump of coal this winter > Thanks i feel better now. Merry Christmas everyone. 

We've had plenty of cold air masses already! We set cold records in Nov and Early Dec! A white Christmas is a very rare thing around here to begin with in any year! If the AO/NAO ever lineup with current config it will be a winter wonderland

We had some cold air masses but nothing really around my part that would stand out. I have to say it's been cooler than last year at this time. But we had 70/ 75 degree days like last December. Now if you take the nation as a whole it has been very cold and records broken all over the place. But we have that SE Block going on. And the rest of this week seems to be true. But it will change, after all that what weather does. Have a good day everyone.  

Toot wrote:We've had plenty of cold air masses already! We set cold records in Nov and Early Dec! A white Christmas is a very rare thing around here to begin with in any year! If the AO/NAO ever lineup with current config it will be a winter wonderland

Not to mention a White day before Thanksgiving and a white Thanksgiving!

Looking at the GFS, there doesn't look like anything good is coming down the pike. After the rain the next few days, I see a very zonal pattern.

Gfs when i check it early look a little better. Got this from another weather site. Don't mean any thing. Well kind like the GFS at times. http://stream1.gifsoup.com/view/252867/fail-o.gif

Looks at little colder for Christmas.

The pattern right around the 27th and into January has my attention, as it looks like it may be possible to get the blocking we have all needed, particularly, just after the New Year. It's still way too early to get excited, because we all know how that pans out. Just look at how excited we were at the beginning of the month, and now, how it panned out. However, the global models and ensembles are all either pointing, or beginning to point to a pattern developing that brings cold and snow to a large portion of the south and eastern U.S. Will it happen, I don't know, but it is interesting to see the developments over the last few days. I like that Christmas continues to trend colder, that's always a good sign. Usually, it works the opposite way, and when the models trend colder inside one week, that is a good thing!

windstorm wrote:Gfs when i check it early look a little better. Got this from another weather site. Don't mean any thing. Well kind like the GFS at times. http://stream1.gifsoup.com/view/252867/fail-o.gif

hope that driver was ok...

^^^haha

Moderate risk out for the Memphis area tomorrow!

Toot wrote:Moderate risk out for the Memphis area tomorrow!

that area has since been expanded further north some, the moderate risk that is. by the way. dr. greg forbes just raised his torcon vaalues tomorrow late in the afternoon to 7 for west tenn and north miss. most of arkansas outside far nw corner

The moderate risk has been pushed even further north and eastward. Nashvegas now sits in the middle of it. I dont think there will be any strong tornados due to storm mode (Guidance really doesnt suggest any discrete cells) but wind damage seems to be a given and a quick/embedded spinup TOR cant be ruled out

This is what the HRRR is progging later on tonight/in the early am around the mid state. Pretty impressive for late December!!

Had some fierce winds here Cocke county this morning around 6AM! Knocked the power out and broke some small tree limbs. Not to mention it woke me up out of a dead sleep..haha  

Ok.. to get myself back on topic here it Looks like the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations (AO/NAO) are gonna dive into negative territory at the beginning of the New Year. The negative phases of these Oscillations are much more favorable for winter weather in the eastern US!

This will mean significant Arctic air intrusions and significant snows will be possible in the eastern united states during at least the first couple of weeks of January.

If you havent had enough of the cold already.. buckle up cause more is on the way! Here is the european model showing the blocked up pattern that it and the GFS have been showing consistently now

500mb height ANOMALY

Had a few wind gusts to 35 here. Rain ill estimate at 1.58" (rain gauge was clogged, estimate based on surrounding PWS and radar).

Had some wind as the squall line move in, maybe 25 to 40 mph. .Were some small limbs in the road this A.M. But short lived. But plenty of rain. 2.12 inches. Rain moves back in tonight. As Toot posted colder air around the first of the year. But these shots of cold air don't seem to stay long at a time.

Here is temp departures from normal for the month of November. As you can see it was one of the coldest Novembers on record for the southeast hence the white Thanksgiving in east TN.



December data hasnt all came in yet as there is still about a week left but it looks like it will come in close to normal to a hair above. Using the LRC theory the November pattern should repeat throughout the winter

Some guidance is suggesting some light snow showers over east TN late Christmas eve. That would be nice if it happens..but the bigger story is what the GFS is progging around new years eve. The Polar Vortex is gonna drop way south and models will have a rough time with this..it will be interesting to see what plays out around the new year

The GFS is giving some love in the extended. Frigid weather, accumulating snow state wide. Hopefully it works out for us for a change.

12z GFS=

    18zgfs=