Weather-Manmade Global Warming Link Builds, Study Says
+9
Vanster67
WxFreak
jmundie
Homemommy
Adam2014
Math/Met
snowdog
Toot
Stovepipe
13 posters
Page 13 of 19
Page 13 of 19 • 1 ... 8 ... 12, 13, 14 ... 19
Re: Weather-Manmade Global Warming Link Builds, Study Says
Stovepipe wrote:I'm trying to muster up some farks to give about Gore getting rich but I'm honestly unable to come up with anything. Same would go for someone getting rich off an anti-hypothesis speaking tour. Honest to God I do not see how that is relevant to anything. Obviously it bothers you, so keep drilling it home by all means, but I'm lost on the importance of it.
That is the thing. Who is making tons of money speaking on the anti-hypothesis tour? Gore is just a gigantic douche. He says the debate is over, even though he has never debated anyone on the topic and won't debate anyone, and it's time to move on. So he created this heavily complex hypothesis, cried fire in a theater and is now making money hand over foot with his venture capital fund that always knows the right companies to get behind before they get huge government greenie contracts. I actually met Gore a few years ago at the Nashville Super Speedway and refrained from telling him what a devilish creature he was.
I've always enjoyed the video below. While I mostly agree with him in this clip about Bush, the same betrayal and playing on fears could be said about Gore and the use of AGW.
Last edited by Toot on 2012-04-24, 7:20 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : Removed youtube tags from embed code)
snowdog- Winter Specialist
- Posts : 855
Join date : 2011-12-14
Age : 46
Location : Mount Juliet, TN
Re: Weather-Manmade Global Warming Link Builds, Study Says
Hah, good stuff.
snowdog- Winter Specialist
- Posts : 855
Join date : 2011-12-14
Age : 46
Location : Mount Juliet, TN
Re: Weather-Manmade Global Warming Link Builds, Study Says
U never fail to give me a laugh in the morning. And laughter is good. It keeps my undies from gettin' in a wad.
WxFreak- Founding Member
- Posts : 812
Join date : 2012-03-27
Age : 52
Location : East Sevier County, TN
Re: Weather-Manmade Global Warming Link Builds, Study Says
If anyone wants to mingle with some of the most brilliant minds in earth science, they should make plans to go to this meeting in San Francisco in December.
http://fallmeeting.agu.org/2012/
I was fortunate enough to go in 2006 and am hoping to go again this year if I can get a poster together in time. It's a very good opportunity to get skooled on the latest weather and climate science. Listen to talks during the day, bar hop Haight/Ashbury at night.
If anyone is seriously interested in going let me know. I'm making plans now.
http://fallmeeting.agu.org/2012/
I was fortunate enough to go in 2006 and am hoping to go again this year if I can get a poster together in time. It's a very good opportunity to get skooled on the latest weather and climate science. Listen to talks during the day, bar hop Haight/Ashbury at night.
If anyone is seriously interested in going let me know. I'm making plans now.
Re: Weather-Manmade Global Warming Link Builds, Study Says
An interesting graphic posted by Joe Bastardi.
snowdog- Winter Specialist
- Posts : 855
Join date : 2011-12-14
Age : 46
Location : Mount Juliet, TN
Re: Weather-Manmade Global Warming Link Builds, Study Says
Here is another good article by Bob Tisdale on Polar Amplification.
FULL ARTICLE LINKED HERE
If you’ve never seen a zonal-mean plot before, they’re not difficult to understand. The y-axis (vertical) is temperature in deg C, just like a time-series graph. But the x-axis (horizontal) is latitude, with the South Pole to the left at -90 degrees and the North Pole to the right at 90 degrees. In Figure 1, and in the other zonal-mean graphs in this post, we’re illustrating trends in deg C per decade. Note: I have not included any data south of 75S (the Antarctic) because the data there starts in the 1950s and it is sporadic early on.
Many of you will find it odd that global surface temperatures warmed at such similar rates during the early and late warming periods—especially when we consider that the net effective forcings during the late warming period rose at a rate that’s about 4.5 times greater than during the early warming period.
FULL ARTICLE LINKED HERE
snowdog- Winter Specialist
- Posts : 855
Join date : 2011-12-14
Age : 46
Location : Mount Juliet, TN
Re: Weather-Manmade Global Warming Link Builds, Study Says
Bob Tisdale has a history of putting his own "spin" on data that conflicts with reality.
http://wottsupwiththat.com/tag/bob-tisdale/
Queue Mundie with the ad hominem attack accusations.
http://wottsupwiththat.com/tag/bob-tisdale/
Queue Mundie with the ad hominem attack accusations.
Re: Weather-Manmade Global Warming Link Builds, Study Says
Bob links the data he uses in his graphs. Feel free to make your own.
snowdog- Winter Specialist
- Posts : 855
Join date : 2011-12-14
Age : 46
Location : Mount Juliet, TN
Re: Weather-Manmade Global Warming Link Builds, Study Says
jmundie wrote:Its rather difficult to separate the politics from any discussion on the science of this given how its been politicized, no? If we were just talking about "is the globe warming or cooling and why" that would be one thing. But wrapped tightly into that is if its humankind, then humankind has to do something to stop it. Or more specifically, if its humankind doing it, its up to nation states or global "governing" bodies to determine who is emitting too much CO2 and punish them accordingly.
There are people on both sides of this who are skeptical, or believers, for their own reasons. I personally get nervous the more distance between me, and the people who are supposed to be representing me. I can go to my city councilmans house and tell him/her that they are doing something that is pissing me off. My opinions have no effect on the federal government officials, or most certainly the UN. I try to do environmentally responsible things with the means that I have. I've got curly lightbulbs, despite the flashing and weird color light. I have a rain barrel to save water in the summer. My wife and I both drive compact cars, even though they aren't as safe as an SUV. I buy a lot of locally sourced food, shop in my neighborhood as much as possible. And I do all that stuff because I think its the right thing to do. But what I don't want is for someone to force me to take a hit in my standard of living because he believes my carbon footprint is too big. That, combined with my rudimentary knowledge of weather and short term forecasting (and its limits) are why I'm skeptical of the science that's coming out. The climate is insanely complex, its existed in many different forms over billions of years, and even the best scientists are making educated guesses... maybe highly educated guesses... but they are still guesses, and they are all wrapped up in politics, which means I read them, and absorb what their saying, but I don't have blind trust in them.
That wasn't "racism" per say that I brought up. It was science. Eugenics. Accepted science has been, and will continue to be at times, spectacularly wrong. And while we should build on the knowledge and experimentation of others, we should be careful to make social decisions based on the best scientific understanding... because, as was noted, it doesn't always yield positive results for humanity.
Re: Weather-Manmade Global Warming Link Builds, Study Says
Now this thread is legit. The Dude.
snowdog- Winter Specialist
- Posts : 855
Join date : 2011-12-14
Age : 46
Location : Mount Juliet, TN
Re: Weather-Manmade Global Warming Link Builds, Study Says
The dude abides
jmundie- Winter Specialist
- Posts : 743
Join date : 2011-12-19
Re: Weather-Manmade Global Warming Link Builds, Study Says
Bob Tisdale with another great article. Really impressed with his work of late. How is it that 75% of the worlds oceans aren't warming when you look at the last 17 years of temp data and CO2 emissions? Those super smart nerds that promote AGW thought the oceans would heat up. It was programmed into their model projections and hindcasts. Except mother nature didn't quite dance to the tune they thought she would. This is the problem with statements like "we have a consensus" and "the debate is over". In almost every metric those in the consensus cannot come close to replicating whats happening in the real world. In other words they have no clue...as former AGW big wig James Lovelock admitted.
Am I cherry picking by just using 75% of the oceans because the Atlantic has been heating. Here is total Global Sea Surface.
LINK TO FULL ARTICLE!!
Am I cherry picking by just using 75% of the oceans because the Atlantic has been heating. Here is total Global Sea Surface.
LINK TO FULL ARTICLE!!
snowdog- Winter Specialist
- Posts : 855
Join date : 2011-12-14
Age : 46
Location : Mount Juliet, TN
Re: Weather-Manmade Global Warming Link Builds, Study Says
snowdog wrote:
Am I cherry picking by just using 75% of the oceans because the Atlantic has been heating.
No, you're cherry picking by only looking at 17 years of data.
Re: Weather-Manmade Global Warming Link Builds, Study Says
Tisdale answered that in the link I provided. Also the last 17 years have been the warmest on record according to the AGW folks. Also CO2 levels are the highest they have been in recorded history. So where is the warming for 75% of the earths oceans? Why has the modeling been so bad for something that is supposedly so well understood?
The choice of 17 years is based on the Santer et al (2011) paper, Separating Signal and Noise in Atmospheric Temperature Change: The Importance of Timescale. In the abstract, Santer et al (2011) conclude with:
Our results show that temperature records of at least 17 years in length are required for identifying human effects on global-mean tropospheric temperature.
snowdog- Winter Specialist
- Posts : 855
Join date : 2011-12-14
Age : 46
Location : Mount Juliet, TN
Re: Weather-Manmade Global Warming Link Builds, Study Says
Also, as I have said numerous times, on a long term scale we are warming and have been since the little ice age and will probably continue to warm until the onset of the next ice age. So you aren't really proving anything by showing that the earth has warmed. What you have to compare and contrast is the predictions of the scale of warming made by "the 97%" crowd vs real world data.
snowdog- Winter Specialist
- Posts : 855
Join date : 2011-12-14
Age : 46
Location : Mount Juliet, TN
Re: Weather-Manmade Global Warming Link Builds, Study Says
snowdog wrote:Tisdale answered that in the link I provided. Also the last 17 years have been the warmest on record according to the AGW folks. Also CO2 levels are the highest they have been in recorded history. So where is the warming for 75% of the earths oceans? Why has the modeling been so bad for something that is supposedly so well understood?The choice of 17 years is based on the Santer et al (2011) paper, Separating Signal and Noise in Atmospheric Temperature Change: The Importance of Timescale. In the abstract, Santer et al (2011) conclude with:
Our results show that temperature records of at least 17 years in length are required for identifying human effects on global-mean tropospheric temperature.
Key words being at least 17 years. If you read over that paper:
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2011/2011JD016263.shtml
It's saying that nothing useful can be gained from looking at trends within a decade. One must look beyond 17 years.
Key Points
- Models run with human forcing can produce 10-year periods with little warming
- S/N ratios for tropospheric temp. are ∼1 for 10-yr trends, ∼4 for 32-yr trends
- Trends >17 yrs are required for identifying human effects on tropospheric temp
We compare global-scale changes in satellite estimates of the temperature of the lower troposphere (TLT) with model simulations of forced and unforced TLT changes. While previous work has focused on a single period of record, we select analysis timescales ranging from 10 to 32 years, and then compare all possible observed TLT trends on each timescale with corresponding multi-model distributions of forced and unforced trends. We use observed estimates of the signal component of TLT changes and model estimates of climate noise to calculate timescale-dependent signal-to-noise ratios (S/N). These ratios are small (less than 1) on the 10-year timescale, increasing to more than 3.9 for 32-year trends. This large change in S/N is primarily due to a decrease in the amplitude of internally generated variability with increasing trend length. Because of the pronounced effect of interannual noise on decadal trends, a multi-model ensemble of anthropogenically-forced simulations displays many 10-year periods with little warming. A single decade of observational TLT data is therefore inadequate for identifying a slowly evolving anthropogenic warming signal. Our results show that temperature records of at least 17 years in length are required for identifying human effects on global-mean tropospheric temperature.
This is where you are missing the boat on model performance. The models don't capture the inter-decadal variation well but have shown skill establishing a climate trend beyond 10 years that matches reality.
Re: Weather-Manmade Global Warming Link Builds, Study Says
Stovepipe wrote:It's saying that nothing useful can be gained from looking at trends within a decade. One must look beyond 17 years.
Really? You are going to nit-pick this point? So at least 17 years means to you 17 is invalid but 18 is valid? Give me a break. I like how you want to nit-pick the fine details but won't respond to the bigger question. Why is it that 75% of the worlds oceans have not warmed over the last 17 years?
This is where you are missing the boat on model performance. The models don't capture the inter-decadal variation well but have shown skill establishing a climate trend beyond 10 years that matches reality.
I didn't miss the boat, I'm driving the boat. This is 17 years of data almost 2 decades worth. Also it isn't as if the models sort of missed the mark and this is due to the data set being too short...they didn't even hit the broad side of the barn that the target was nailed to.
You have said numerous times in this thread that you are objectively looking at this topic but your posts such as the last don't show that at all. You will go to whacky lengths to try and preserve something that isn't there. The religion of AGW theory (or hypothesis more correctly stated).
snowdog- Winter Specialist
- Posts : 855
Join date : 2011-12-14
Age : 46
Location : Mount Juliet, TN
Re: Weather-Manmade Global Warming Link Builds, Study Says
snowdog wrote:You have said numerous times in this thread that you are objectively looking at this topic but your posts such as the last don't show that at all. You will go to whacky lengths to try and preserve something that isn't there. The religion of AGW theory (or hypothesis more correctly stated).
Dude, relax. Nothing whacky going on here. I simply showed in more detail the point that the cited paper is making. Why are you getting all bent out of shape?
Re: Weather-Manmade Global Warming Link Builds, Study Says
snowdog wrote:Really? You are going to nit-pick this point? So at least 17 years means to you 17 is invalid but 18 is valid? Give me a break. I like how you want to nit-pick the fine details but won't respond to the bigger question. Why is it that 75% of the worlds oceans have not warmed over the last 17 years?
There are a variety of methods and datasets for ocean temperatures. Independent analysis has shown that while they have warmed less recently, they are still warming. More importantly, they are certainly warming when you look at a longer time scale.
Good explanation of the ocean temp measurements and trends:
http://www.skepticalscience.com/cooling-oceans-intermediate.htm
In climate discussions, the most common error is focusing on a single piece of the puzzle while ignoring the big picture. The ocean cooling meme commits this error twofold. Firstly, it scrutinises 6 years worth of data while ignoring the last 40 years of ocean warming. Secondly, it hangs its hat on one particular reconstruction that shows cooling, while other results and independent analyses indicate slight warming.
The bottom line is there is still uncertainty over the reconstruction of ocean heat. Generally, the various reconstructions show the same long term trends but don't always agree over short periods. The uncertainty means one cannot conclude with confidence that the ocean is cooling. Independent analysis seem to indicate that over last half dozen years, the ocean has shown less warming than the long term trend but nevertheless, a statistically significant warming trend.
So yeah, if we are going to be objective here, I'm going to need more than a Bob Tisdale blog article before I believe the oceans are definitely cooling. That isn't head in the sand stuff, that is just making sense of the various bits of available evidence. Bob isn't bringing anything ground breaking to the table here and neither are you. Nice try though.
Re: Weather-Manmade Global Warming Link Builds, Study Says
Stovepipe wrote:The ocean cooling meme commits this error twofold. Firstly, it scrutinises 6 years worth of data while ignoring the last 40 years of ocean warming. Secondly, it hangs its hat on one particular reconstruction that shows cooling, while other results and independent analyses indicate slight warming.
It isn't 6 years it is 17 years. Your link doesn't really deal with Tisdale's points. Your link talks about estimating Ocean Heat Content. Of course as always when you deal with estimating something you have one side showing cooling and the other side showing warming. Tisdale is using satellite based sea surface temps.
So yeah, if we are going to be objective here, I'm going to need more than a Bob Tisdale blog article before I believe the oceans are definitely cooling.
Objective? Come on. This isn't Tisdale's opinion. All the man is doing is graphing a data set of the last 17 years of satellite based sea surface temps vs model projections.
Dude, relax. Nothing whacky going on here. I simply showed in more detail the point that the cited paper is making. Why are you getting all bent out of shape?
You are using whacky logic by nitpicking the term "at least 17 years". I'm not bent out of shape, I'm getting a kick out watching you wiggle and squirm. As if the models accuracy would be much better at 34 years vs 17. I don't even know if we have reliable sat. measured sea surface temps that go back 34 years...probably would be pretty close to that time period.
If you are being objective you have to admit the models have been horrendous at projecting sea surface temps.
snowdog- Winter Specialist
- Posts : 855
Join date : 2011-12-14
Age : 46
Location : Mount Juliet, TN
Re: Weather-Manmade Global Warming Link Builds, Study Says
snowdog wrote:Stovepipe wrote:The ocean cooling meme commits this error twofold. Firstly, it scrutinises 6 years worth of data while ignoring the last 40 years of ocean warming. Secondly, it hangs its hat on one particular reconstruction that shows cooling, while other results and independent analyses indicate slight warming.
It isn't 6 years it is 17 years. Your link doesn't really deal with Tisdale's points. Your link talks about estimating Ocean Heat Content. Of course as always when you deal with estimating something you have one side showing cooling and the other side showing warming. Tisdale is using satellite based sea surface temps.So yeah, if we are going to be objective here, I'm going to need more than a Bob Tisdale blog article before I believe the oceans are definitely cooling.
Objective? Come on. This isn't Tisdale's opinion. All the man is doing is graphing a data set of the last 17 years of satellite based sea surface temps vs model projections.Dude, relax. Nothing whacky going on here. I simply showed in more detail the point that the cited paper is making. Why are you getting all bent out of shape?
You are using whacky logic by nitpicking the term "at least 17 years". I'm not bent out of shape, I'm getting a kick out watching you wiggle and squirm. As if the models accuracy would be much better at 34 years vs 17. I don't even know if we have reliable sat. measured sea surface temps that go back 34 years...probably would be pretty close to that time period.
If you are being objective you have to admit the models have been horrendous at projecting sea surface temps.
Objective look at Ocean Surface Temperatures with links to plenty of peer reviewed papers to chew on:
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2011/07/revisiting-historical-ocean-surface-temperatures/
The only way you can possibly say that SSTs are cooling is to get very creative with the datasets and time periods you choose to look at. Bob Tisdale links to his chart generator site (that was busted the last time I tried to use it). He also links to a lot of Bob Tisdale articles. The two articles I've put forth link to actual scientific studies on the subject.
There is no squirming here on my part. It's right there for anyone to read. I find it hilarious that you keep attacking me personally rather than the evidence I've put forward. Notice I'm not the one calling you whacky. Someone is rather touchy this morning.
Re: Weather-Manmade Global Warming Link Builds, Study Says
You can't say that I don't read the stuff you post, even if it's from blogs of people like Tisdale. For all I know he doesn't even have a Phd in the earth sciences and if I had tried to put forth something from the other side with equal credibility you would have torn it to shreds. Regardless, I had a few minutes to kill and did some digging on SST data.
First of all, for the people at home, it should be understood that there isn't one definitive set of temperature data that is recorded on the earth. People don't just go out and check thermometers around the globe and write down the numbers. It's a complicated process that involves adjusting for known biases in measurements among many other things. That is why you see different datasets for temperature such as Hadcrut and GISS, etc.
With regards to Sea Surface Temps, Tisdale mentions that he is using Reynolds OI.v2, which is one of the various interpolations available.
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/cmb/sst_analysis/
I'm certainly not saying that the Reynolds method is flawed so don't even try to say I'm going there. But as I look at the datasets that are used in hard science, such as the various flavors HadSST, I'm not seeing the 17 year cooling trend (or flat warming) Tisdale is seeing.
Here's HadSST3:
That chart doesn't go to present day mind you, but it shows enough of this 17 year period in question and what it shows conflicts with Tisdale's data.
Source: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadsst3/
Here's a comparison of HadSST2 and HadSST3:
Also interesting is that GISTEMP is based on the Reynolds analysis and it's Land-Ocean temp index does not show the cooling either.
Source: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/updates_v3/V3vsV2/
So if we are being objective here, would you mind linking to some hard science that describes this cooling (or at least not warming) of ocean surface temps over the past 17 years? I'm a bit skeptical of the conclusions the blogger is drawing. Especially since this blogger has been busted hard in the past for cherry picking.
First of all, for the people at home, it should be understood that there isn't one definitive set of temperature data that is recorded on the earth. People don't just go out and check thermometers around the globe and write down the numbers. It's a complicated process that involves adjusting for known biases in measurements among many other things. That is why you see different datasets for temperature such as Hadcrut and GISS, etc.
With regards to Sea Surface Temps, Tisdale mentions that he is using Reynolds OI.v2, which is one of the various interpolations available.
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/cmb/sst_analysis/
I'm certainly not saying that the Reynolds method is flawed so don't even try to say I'm going there. But as I look at the datasets that are used in hard science, such as the various flavors HadSST, I'm not seeing the 17 year cooling trend (or flat warming) Tisdale is seeing.
Here's HadSST3:
That chart doesn't go to present day mind you, but it shows enough of this 17 year period in question and what it shows conflicts with Tisdale's data.
Source: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadsst3/
Here's a comparison of HadSST2 and HadSST3:
Also interesting is that GISTEMP is based on the Reynolds analysis and it's Land-Ocean temp index does not show the cooling either.
Source: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/updates_v3/V3vsV2/
So if we are being objective here, would you mind linking to some hard science that describes this cooling (or at least not warming) of ocean surface temps over the past 17 years? I'm a bit skeptical of the conclusions the blogger is drawing. Especially since this blogger has been busted hard in the past for cherry picking.
Re: Weather-Manmade Global Warming Link Builds, Study Says
Stovepipe wrote:You can't say that I don't read the stuff you post, even if it's from blogs of people like Tisdale. For all I know he doesn't even have a Phd in the earth sciences and if I had tried to put forth something from the other side with equal credibility you would have torn it to shreds. Regardless, I had a few minutes to kill and did some digging on SST data.
Go back and re-read my original post and look at the graphics. You seem to be getting confused. He doesn't show a cooling trend for global sea surface. He shows a cooling trend for the Pacific and Indian Ocean which makes up for 75% of the ocean. He shows a significant warming trend in the Atlantic which makes up the other 25%. Overall there has been a slight warming trend (.031 deg. C/decade) in the Global Sea temp anomaly. His graph closely matches your graph from 1995 onward.
So if we are being objective here, would you mind linking to some hard science that describes this cooling (or at least not warming) of ocean surface temps over the past 17 years? I'm a bit skeptical of the conclusions the blogger is drawing. Especially since this blogger has been busted hard in the past for cherry picking.
The links to the data are available in the article as well as a plethora of graphs.
Also he isn't arguing nanny nanny boo boo stick your head in doo doo global warming isn't real. His main point in showing the graphs were to show how bad the models are. From there one can draw their own conclusions.
snowdog- Winter Specialist
- Posts : 855
Join date : 2011-12-14
Age : 46
Location : Mount Juliet, TN
Page 13 of 19 • 1 ... 8 ... 12, 13, 14 ... 19
Similar topics
» Global warming stopped 16 years ago
» Suggestions for Useful Weather Sites or Live Weather Maps sticky posts
» Study: Less Arctic ice means more U.S. snow
» Man From Crossville, TN Builds Worlds Tallest Treehouse
» Stratospheric warming and the PV NAO/AO relationship
» Suggestions for Useful Weather Sites or Live Weather Maps sticky posts
» Study: Less Arctic ice means more U.S. snow
» Man From Crossville, TN Builds Worlds Tallest Treehouse
» Stratospheric warming and the PV NAO/AO relationship
Page 13 of 19
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum