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Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2016-02-21, 2:48 pm

I will update again later.... Looking at some of the models they have came way west with the storm from just a few days ago.... This will be a powerful storm with every type of weather.... I think for most of the mid state it will be heavy rain and a few thunderstorms... Just off to the south and east it could be a severe weather outbreak! On the back side as this bad boy bombs out as it pulls off to the ne we will see the heavy rain change to snow.... How much? I don't know! The Midwest will get the brunt of the snow.... The nam is just coming into range and this is what it shows for wed......


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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2016-02-21, 5:55 pm

hey guys! this is just a rough go at making maps. got my new laptop sat! this is for the big storm tue through thur. i will update later.. we will have some wrap around snow...... let me know what you think! thanks




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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Toot on 2016-02-21, 7:21 pm

These writeups are from my blog where I do most of my posting these days. The first series is from yesterday and the second from today

Confidence is increasing in a multi day/widespread severe weather outbreak starting Tuesday in SE Texas (not covered in the graphic below). A closed upper level low embedded in an impressively deep trough will develop over Texas Tuesday and move eastward towards the region Tuesday night into Wednesday.

An unseasonably strong surface low will develop and move north/north-eastward into western TN while continuing to deepen rather quickly! Ahead of this system in the warm sector temps and dewpoints will surge into the 60's with some 70 degree temps possible due to such an impressive warm air advection pattern. Strong to severe thunderstorms will begin developing in the western sections of the TN valley as early as tuesday evening but as things move further eastward paramaters and severe weather values begin to get much more impressive.

All modes of severe weather will be possible including tornados...hail and straight line wind! Below is how WXeastern sees the threat playing out Wednesday into Thursday but stay in tune with your weather because things can change quickly. There will also be a wintry side to this system...(in fact some places could see severe weather followed by snow) west of the Appalachian mountains after the cold front passes as cold advection snow showers begin to take hold over the OH and TN valleys. This is a very strong storm system we will be dealing with here and its going to show off in its own little way in both the warm and cold weather departments!!














On the wintry side of things..we have a major low pressure system that truly phases 3 different pieces of energy becoming a bomb! A southern stream upper low phases with not one but two different northern stream shortwaves over the TN and OH valleys Tue into Wed!

Then it goes on to become negatively tilted and vertically stacked from the upper levels down to the surface to create one hell of a winter storm.From the midwest over into the OH and TN valleys will see accumulating snow!!
As I said earlier...certain areas in the extreme southern appalachian and TN valley regions may even see severe storms followed by a light to moderate accumulating snow.

This is due to all the upper level energy getting worked into the system after the cold front has passed while the midwest gets hammered with one heck of a deformation band!! This is where the really big snowfall totals will be and where Blizzard warnings will likely go up.

Below is a little video of images I put together showing the 3 pieces of upper level (500mb) energy phasing together with the very bottom one being the upper low and the top two being shortwaves in the upper levels of the atmosphere.





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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2016-02-21, 8:09 pm

That's awesome! Great detail.... So wxeastern is your other blog?

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Toot on 2016-02-21, 8:15 pm

Jscentraltn wrote:That's awesome! Great detail.... So wxeastern is your other blog?

Its the only one I post on these days. I post here from time to time but i go into much more detail there. With work so busy... its hard to post everywhere I used to

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2016-02-21, 8:22 pm

I understand the work thing! I will check it out though... I think you do great work and are very detailed.... I have learned a lot from you over the last couple years and still am learning. Weather is a strong passion of mine and I have a lot of sleepless night and a lot of sleepy days at my real job.... Thanks

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by etnwx on 2016-02-25, 11:24 pm

Slight off topic, I finally got my website back up. I hope to slowly get back to work on it.

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by windstorm on 2016-02-28, 9:28 am

Guy's for me it been a non winter event down this way for me with only half inch of snow. So unless something major breaks, am hanging winter on the hook. May check back in from time to time. Enjoy everyones post and updates. So until next winter see you then. I will still be looking on here to see what everyone is talking about. Take care, Until next winter.
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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Toot on 2016-02-28, 4:04 pm

windstorm wrote:Guy's for me it been a non winter event down this way for me with only half inch of snow. So unless something major breaks, am hanging winter on the hook. May check back in from time to time. Enjoy everyones post and updates. So until next winter see you then. I will still be looking on here to see what everyone is talking about. Take care, Until next winter.

You may get your seasonal average in one storm this coming weekend on what looks to be a southern slider so far. Nothing for sure but guidance has been suggesting it..dont give up before winter is over. Of course im above avg already here in the foothills

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

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