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Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

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Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Toot on 2014-12-10, 7:57 pm

Things starting to setup real nice for a big bang towards the end of the month. AO/NAO trending negative PNA trending positive and the 500mb pattern is responding with an active subtropical jet thanks to a weak el nino. Gonna be a lot of gulf lows to monitor
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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by VFL on 2014-12-10, 8:24 pm

The weekend before and the week of Christmas looks interesting.
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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by underdawg45 on 2014-12-10, 9:53 pm

VFL u have a volquest account?

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by windstorm on 2014-12-11, 12:57 pm

http://www.weatherbell.com/premium/joe-daleo/as-jb-opines-these-december-hiccups-are-characteristic-of-these-kinds-of-winters
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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by etnwx on 2014-12-12, 3:20 pm

windstorm wrote:http://www.weatherbell.com/premium/joe-daleo/as-jb-opines-these-december-hiccups-are-characteristic-of-these-kinds-of-winters

Can you summarize this for us who are not members?

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by VFL on 2014-12-12, 5:01 pm

underdawg45 wrote:VFL u have a volquest account?

This made my pants tight..... Smile
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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by windstorm on 2014-12-12, 5:25 pm

etnwx wrote:
windstorm wrote:http://www.weatherbell.com/premium/joe-daleo/as-jb-opines-these-december-hiccups-are-characteristic-of-these-kinds-of-winters

Can you summarize this for us who are not members?
Really what he is doing is looking back on climate models and comparing things. Bottom line is he expects the weather pattern to turn much colder near the end of the month into January. Some are already trying to write off this winter as not being cold. His forecast still calls for a cold winter. No matter what is going on right now. That's the reason for all these charts and so on. Things are slowly beginning to flip into a cold pattern setting up for the week of Christmas or the first of the year. Jet stream may not be as far down as it was last winter but still puts us in a cold patten and depending on where you live, we all could be on the boarder line between rain/snow/fr rain / sleet. He saying pretty much don"t get use to this mild weather we are having now. He is showing in years past the same thing started off pretty much in the same way. Other words don't give up hope. Of course he could dead wrong on all of this.


Last edited by windstorm on 2014-12-13, 12:19 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-12-12, 9:31 pm

hurry sauce scared cold Sleep

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-12-12, 9:58 pm

Man do I ever find my self getting caught up with every model run! Instead looking at the overall set up.... The up above statement is how I feel right know. Seeing the pattern setting up for cold and a active southern branch which storm will it be? Looking at the euro essembles of the 12z run there are 50 members and some show all of tn getting some good snow through the week of Christmas... Time will tell!!!!! But I cant wait I'm going crazy..    Very Happy

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-12-12, 10:00 pm

P.s....... My pants are getting tight too!  Smile

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-12-13, 7:41 am

How's this look!!! I know it is a week away, but the euro and the canadian both are starting to be consistent and pretty close... The GFS is in a world of its own.


http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014121300/nc/ecmwf_tsnow_nc_31.png

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Toot on 2014-12-13, 9:53 am

You have to post the image Jscentraltn..if you dont have a subscription to wxbell premium you wont be able to see it. Anyways..looks like a parade of winter storms is about to commence and alot of us will likely get in on a few of them. Bout to do a writeup on next weekends system right now

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Toot on 2014-12-13, 12:29 pm

I see two possible scenarios with the next weekend winter storm system! We have a low pressure system that will slide its way across the southern united states. If it stays on the weaker side (Southern Slider) it will mean sig snow across the Mid South..TN Valley..Southern Appalachian and parts of the Mid Atlantic regions! If the low becomes a stronger storm system (Apps Runner) it would produce the snow from the south central states up through the mid south into the OH valley!




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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-12-13, 2:12 pm

The 12z euro lined up with the southern slider! Most of tn gets good snow if it came to be right..... The apps up into Virginia get hammered... Very Happy

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Toot on 2014-12-13, 2:37 pm

Yeppy

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-12-13, 7:02 pm

The system at the beginning of the week will determine what happens going into next weekend.. The gfs is still trying to take the weekend storm nw of us but I really don't see that happening. The first system is going to move north east into Canada and will close off In return the next system will not be able to go north... Therefore I feel pretty good about the midsouth getting some snow!   :d

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-12-14, 2:21 pm

Since I can't get any of my images to post! The euro is still on with the storm... 12z snowfall forecast has almost all of tn getting hammered. I know this is one run, but it has been the only consistent one... I don't buy the gfs at all!

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Toot on 2014-12-14, 3:28 pm

Upload them to http://tinypic.com/ and it will provide u with an image code to just paste here. That should work fine. The euro came a hair north and west..not really liking that..lol especially if there is the NW trend that seems to usually happen with most gulf lows

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Toot on 2014-12-14, 7:38 pm

There has been a battle going on in between the American and European models on plotting the track of the weekend storm system. Its still not completely written in stone but the American model and its ensemble members have taken a huge step toward the track of the European model. I dont think we have the final solution on the storm track but we are getting close!!

Models will continue to struggle because there is so much upper level energy flying around in the atmosphere due to the pattern realignment in the arctic region. This change which is breaking down the polar vortex (Remember I told you this was about to happen a couple of weeks ago) in the higher latitudes that models will continue to struggle until high latitude blocking and low latitude troughing is established.

This weekends storm/cold front will mark the start of a much colder regime over the vast majority of the central and eastern U.S. There will be a parade of southern stream storms for a couple of weeks until the Northern stream becomes the more dominant one. There could be 2-3 significant (maybe even one major) snow storms in the eastern united states during this period. Below is how I think the first one (This weekend) will track. Of course the thing could shift a hundred miles north or south but this is one of those rare times where the whole state may get in!!


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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-12-14, 8:10 pm

Thanks toot! I'm with you on that map... The only thing I think It could still end up a little further south. I know you stated that but I still think the gfs is not picking up how strong that block will be in Canada. I hope it doesn't end up going to far south for me we will see.... Here is the 12z euro snow totals, the control run is the same..


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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Toot on 2014-12-14, 9:56 pm

I put your link in between image tags that way the image shows up in ur post.
Code:
 [img]tinypic link goes here[/img]

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by windstorm on 2014-12-14, 10:40 pm

If the storm track low that Toot posted stays that way that is a great set up for a snowstorm in Tenn if we have the cold air with it. If it goes farther south and swings say into the Fla panhandle and swings up, that would changes things a great deal. And many of us would be doing this.. facepalm
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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by windstorm on 2014-12-14, 10:47 pm

As long as the low swing up into southern GA.
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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-12-15, 9:55 am

Wow!!! Pulling my hair out.. This is going to split the hairs. The euro 0z pulled a little further nw but the essembles are about the same... Gfs shows something crazy 0z but it's essembles are in line with the euro.


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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-12-15, 11:05 am

Well the 12z gfs went south were we would want it, but it is weaker and less cold. Just waiting for the 12z euro.... Have a great day! Very Happy

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