NOAA near-term weather forecasts get powerful boost from new computer model

Starting today, NOAA is using a sophisticated new weather forecast computer model to improve predictions of quickly developing severe weather events including thunderstorms, winter storms and aviation hazards such as clear air turbulence.

The Rapid Refresh now provides NOAA's most rapidly updated weather forecast, replacing an older model that served a similar function. The Rapid Refresh, developed by NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colo. and NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in Camp Springs, Md., updates every hour with a new forecast extending out 18 hours for North America. Such forecasts are especially important in aviation, where fast-developing weather conditions can affect safety and efficiency, but they are equally important for severe weather and energy-related forecasting.

RAP's skillful forecasts derive from three key improvements over the earlier model:

- RAP is based on a significantly more advanced numerical weather prediction model, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. WRF was created through a collaboration of NOAA, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, the Air Force Weather Agency and dozens of other research institutions;

- RAP uses an innovative technique for "assimilating" current observations used to start the forecast model. The newer assimilation technique, developed through a NOAA-NASA research partnership led by NOAA's NCEP, improves short-range forecasts; and

- RAP extends the geographical coverage of NOAA's weather situational awareness information to all of North America, not just the contiguous U.S. as was the case for the older model.

Stovepipe wrote:So is this basically the experimental HRRR all grown up?