La Niña is likely to dissipate during March-May 2012

A mature La Niña continued during January 2012, as below-average sea surface temperatures (SST) persisted across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The weekly SST indices remained near -1.0oC in the Niño-3.4 and Niño-4 regions. However, the negative SST anomalies weakened in the far eastern Pacific, indicated by warming in the Niño-1+2 and Niño-3 regions. The oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) anomalies also weakened slightly, but continued to reflect an extensive area of below-average subsurface temperatures east of the Date Line. Also, anomalous low-level easterly and upper-level westerly winds persisted over the central and west-central Pacific. Convection remained suppressed in the western and central Pacific, and enhanced over Indonesia. Collectively, the oceanic and atmospheric patterns reflect a weak-to-moderate strength La Niña.

A majority of models predict La Niña to weaken through the rest of the Northern Hemisphere winter 2011-12, and then to dissipate during the spring 2012