March Severe

by **Dyersburg Weather** 2013-03-01, 10:24 am

Let the severe season begin. hurry

PS : Bruce , I know we are not supposed to talk about it so far out but there is something brewing. rfl

by **tennessee storm09** 2013-03-01, 10:45 pm

Dyersburg Weather wrote:Let the severe season begin.

PS : Bruce , I know we are not supposed to talk about it so far out but there is something brewing.

yes sire, you r correct, last nites runs on the euro caught my attention in long range... its just about time for .spring action dyer... trends keep up, i wont be shy to start topic... if its,plausable smartass

by **Toot** 2013-03-02, 12:50 pm

Im ready for spring..this winter has not been warm nor that cold overall but it certainly has felt harsh and drawn out to me. Bring on some supercells and short sleeve shirt weather beer

by **etnwx** 2013-03-02, 1:28 pm

Toot wrote:Im ready for spring..this winter has not been warm nor that cold overall but it certainly has felt harsh and drawn out to me. Bring on some supercells and short sleeve shirt weather

Amen brother! I'm so sick of this

winter I could puke

. Hopefully this spring will be interesting and we slip through summer quickly so we can get back to fall and football! Cool

by **VFL** 2013-03-02, 10:07 pm

Thread made me go from 6 to midnight.

by **Toot** 2013-03-03, 4:37 pm

VFL wrote:Thread made me go from 6 to midnight.

What in the hell does that even mean? lol!

by **VFL** 2013-03-03, 5:33 pm

Toot wrote:
VFL wrote:Thread made me go from 6 to midnight.
What in the hell does that even mean?

Lets just say my pants got real tight.

by **tennessee storm09** 2013-03-03, 6:02 pm

until we can get rid of this troughy pattern here in the east, severe will be nill to none... i would like to see a slight ridge get built over the se coast, just a tad... the gfs long range has been hinting at slowly going to a more sw flow pattern or at leas a semi zonal flow... that would be a big start. but we all know how models have been at this season in the long range...

by **tennessee storm09** 2013-03-15, 5:57 am

spc has higlighted the tennessee valley and ohio valley region for a severe threat on monday... Very Happy

by **snowdog** 2013-03-15, 2:52 pm

VFL wrote:Thread made me go from 6 to midnight.

What time would that be in zulu time?

by **VFL** 2013-03-15, 2:58 pm

Does Monday look interesting to anyone? SPC seems to think so as of now.

by **Toot** 2013-03-15, 11:18 pm

VFL wrote:Does Monday look interesting to anyone? SPC seems to think so as of now.

Strong dynamics with mostly a wind threat ahead of a cold front but supercells are not out of the question either! Looks a little unorganized at first glance but needs to be monitored due to the favorable time of year

by **Toot** 2013-03-17, 8:36 pm

Code:: DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 PM CDT SUN MAR 17 2013 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MS...AL...NWRN GA...CNTRL AND ERN KY AND TN... ...SYNOPSIS... A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY BY 18Z AND WILL RAPIDLY MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY EVENING. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY JET MAX WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...AND WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE OH/TN VALLEYS INTO THE SERN STATES. ...KY/TN/MS/AL/GA/FL PANHANDLE... A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM SRN IL/WRN KY NEWD INTO INDIANA BETWEEN 12-18Z...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD INTO TN...NRN MS AND SRN AR. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS LOW AND THE NRN PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS NRN MS/AL...TN...AND KY AS A RESULT. WITH RELATIVELY STRONG MEAN FLOW...SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY BE SEVERE WITH MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL. AS FORCING LIFTS NEWD...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE TRAILING COLD FRONT AND WARM SECTOR ACROSS MS/AL/GA/FL. INDICATIONS ARE THAT LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR AND ALLOW FOR HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR...WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME CENTERED OVER MS. MODELS OFFER A MENAGERIE OF QPF SOLUTIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND POSSIBLY AHEAD OF THE WEAK FRONT/LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM NRN AL INTO MS AND PERHAPS AS FAR SW AS ERN LA. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE VEERED...LONG HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE PRESENT...AND WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE A FEW STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF SIGNIFICANT HAIL OVER 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER. VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS TORNADO THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT NON-ZERO FOR RIGHTWARD MOVING SUPERCELLS. THE PRESENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL LI/S MAY ALSO TEND TO COMPENSATE FOR THE MARGINAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR. THE MOST FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES WILL BE OVER CNTRL AND SRN AL. OVERNIGHT...AN UNSTABLE AND RELATIVELY UNCAPPED AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST AND ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE. ISOLATED SEVERE ACTIVITY MAY THUS PERSIST AS IT TRAVELS SEWD OUT OF AL. A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO EXIST ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND COULD THREATEN PORTIONS OF THE FL COAST LATE.

OHX SPS

Code:: SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 418 PM CDT SUN MAR 17 2013 TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-181200- STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON- HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE- SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS- WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE- CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE- GILES- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CLARKSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD... GALLATIN...LAFAYETTE...CELINA...BYRDSTOWN...CAMDEN...ERIN... WAVERLY...DICKSON...ASHLAND CITY...NASHVILLE...LEBANON... MOUNT JULIET...HARTSVILLE...CARTHAGE...GAINESBORO...COOKEVILLE... LIVINGSTON...JAMESTOWN...LOBELVILLE...CENTERVILLE...HOHENWALD... FRANKLIN...BRENTWOOD...COLUMBIA...LEWISBURG...MURFREESBORO... WOODBURY...SMITHVILLE...SPARTA...CROSSVILLE...SHELBYVILLE... TULLAHOMA...MANCHESTER...MCMINNVILLE...ALTAMONT...SPENCER... WAYNESBORO...LAWRENCEBURG...PULASKI 418 PM CDT SUN MAR 17 2013 ...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON MONDAY... AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS EVENING AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS MID STATE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NASHVILLE METROPOLITIAN AREA AROUND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 WILL EXPERIENCE AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON... AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. HAIL AND A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MID STATE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND MEDIA OUTLETS FOR INFORMATION AS THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT DEVELOPS.