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March Severe

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March Severe

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2013-03-01, 10:24 am

Let the severe season begin. hurry

PS : Bruce , I know we are not supposed to talk about it so far out but there is something brewing. rfl rfl

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Re: March Severe

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-03-01, 10:45 pm

Dyersburg Weather wrote:Let the severe season begin. hurry

PS : Bruce , I know we are not supposed to talk about it so far out but there is something brewing. rfl rfl
yes sire, you r correct, last nites runs on the euro caught my attention in long range... its just about time for .spring action dyer... trends keep up, i wont be shy to start topic... if its,plausable smartass

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Re: March Severe

Post by Toot on 2013-03-02, 12:50 pm

Im ready for spring..this winter has not been warm nor that cold overall but it certainly has felt harsh and drawn out to me. Bring on some supercells and short sleeve shirt weather beer

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Re: March Severe

Post by etnwx on 2013-03-02, 1:28 pm

Toot wrote:Im ready for spring..this winter has not been warm nor that cold overall but it certainly has felt harsh and drawn out to me. Bring on some supercells and short sleeve shirt weather beer

Amen brother! I'm so sick of this bs winter I could puke. Hopefully this spring will be interesting and we slip through summer quickly so we can get back to fall and football! Cool

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Re: March Severe

Post by VFL on 2013-03-02, 10:07 pm

Thread made me go from 6 to midnight.
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Re: March Severe

Post by Toot on 2013-03-03, 4:37 pm

VFL wrote:Thread made me go from 6 to midnight.
What in the hell does that even mean? lol!

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Re: March Severe

Post by VFL on 2013-03-03, 5:33 pm

Toot wrote:
VFL wrote:Thread made me go from 6 to midnight.
What in the hell does that even mean? lol!
Lets just say my pants got real tight.
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Re: March Severe

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-03-03, 6:02 pm

until we can get rid of this troughy pattern here in the east, severe will be nill to none... i would like to see a slight ridge get built over the se coast, just a tad... the gfs long range has been hinting at slowly going to a more sw flow pattern or at leas a semi zonal flow... that would be a big start. but we all know how models have been at this season in the long range...

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Re: March Severe

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-03-15, 5:57 am

spc has higlighted the tennessee valley and ohio valley region for a severe threat on monday... Very Happy

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Re: March Severe

Post by snowdog on 2013-03-15, 2:52 pm

VFL wrote:Thread made me go from 6 to midnight.

What time would that be in zulu time?

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Re: March Severe

Post by VFL on 2013-03-15, 2:58 pm

Does Monday look interesting to anyone? SPC seems to think so as of now.
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Re: March Severe

Post by Toot on 2013-03-15, 11:18 pm

VFL wrote:Does Monday look interesting to anyone? SPC seems to think so as of now.
Strong dynamics with mostly a wind threat ahead of a cold front but supercells are not out of the question either! Looks a little unorganized at first glance but needs to be monitored due to the favorable time of year

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Re: March Severe

Post by Toot on 2013-03-17, 8:36 pm


Code:
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  1229 PM CDT SUN MAR 17 2013
 
  VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
 
  ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MS...AL...NWRN
  GA...CNTRL AND ERN KY AND TN...
 
  ...SYNOPSIS...
  A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER MS
  VALLEY SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY BY 18Z AND WILL RAPIDLY MOVE NEWD
  ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY EVENING. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY JET MAX
  WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...AND WILL
  RESULT IN WIDESPREAD HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE OH/TN VALLEYS INTO THE
  SERN STATES.
 
  ...KY/TN/MS/AL/GA/FL PANHANDLE...
  A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM SRN IL/WRN KY NEWD INTO
  INDIANA BETWEEN 12-18Z...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD INTO
  TN...NRN MS AND SRN AR. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ACCOMPANY
  THIS LOW AND THE NRN PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH
  THE NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS NRN MS/AL...TN...AND KY AS A
  RESULT. WITH RELATIVELY STRONG MEAN FLOW...SOME OF THIS CONVECTION
  MAY BE SEVERE WITH MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL.
 
  AS FORCING LIFTS NEWD...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE TRAILING COLD
  FRONT AND WARM SECTOR ACROSS MS/AL/GA/FL. INDICATIONS ARE THAT LOW
  CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR AND ALLOW FOR HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION TO
  OCCUR...WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME CENTERED OVER MS. MODELS
  OFFER A MENAGERIE OF QPF SOLUTIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT THE
  GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND POSSIBLY AHEAD
  OF THE WEAK FRONT/LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM NRN AL INTO MS AND
  PERHAPS AS FAR SW AS ERN LA.
  ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE VEERED...LONG HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR
  SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
  ALSO BE PRESENT...AND WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE A FEW
  STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF SIGNIFICANT HAIL OVER 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER.
  VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS TORNADO THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT
  NON-ZERO FOR RIGHTWARD MOVING SUPERCELLS. THE PRESENCE OF
  SUBSTANTIAL LI/S MAY ALSO TEND TO COMPENSATE FOR THE MARGINAL LOW
  LEVEL SHEAR. THE MOST FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES WILL BE
  OVER CNTRL AND SRN AL.
 
  OVERNIGHT...AN UNSTABLE AND RELATIVELY UNCAPPED AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
  ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST AND ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE. ISOLATED
  SEVERE ACTIVITY MAY THUS PERSIST AS IT TRAVELS SEWD OUT OF AL. A FEW
  SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO EXIST ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE GULF OF
  MEXICO...AND COULD THREATEN PORTIONS OF THE FL COAST LATE.




OHX SPS
Code:
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
418 PM CDT SUN MAR 17 2013

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-181200-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CLARKSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...
GALLATIN...LAFAYETTE...CELINA...BYRDSTOWN...CAMDEN...ERIN...
WAVERLY...DICKSON...ASHLAND CITY...NASHVILLE...LEBANON...
MOUNT JULIET...HARTSVILLE...CARTHAGE...GAINESBORO...COOKEVILLE...
LIVINGSTON...JAMESTOWN...LOBELVILLE...CENTERVILLE...HOHENWALD...
FRANKLIN...BRENTWOOD...COLUMBIA...LEWISBURG...MURFREESBORO...
WOODBURY...SMITHVILLE...SPARTA...CROSSVILLE...SHELBYVILLE...
TULLAHOMA...MANCHESTER...MCMINNVILLE...ALTAMONT...SPENCER...
WAYNESBORO...LAWRENCEBURG...PULASKI
418 PM CDT SUN MAR 17 2013

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON MONDAY...

AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS EVENING AND
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS MID STATE
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NASHVILLE METROPOLITIAN AREA AROUND THE
MORNING RUSH HOUR. LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 WILL
EXPERIENCE AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON... AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN.
HAIL AND A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MID STATE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. PLEASE
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND MEDIA OUTLETS FOR INFORMATION
AS THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT DEVELOPS.

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Re: March Severe

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