Valentines Day snow

As I have been saying for about three weeks now there could be a more significant winter storm to affect a big chunk of the eastern US during the Valentines day timeframe. Some of the latest ensemble guidance products are suggesting that threat is becoming more probable this morning. Its still  about ten days out but I am starting to see some agreement between several members of the GFS ensembles.

GFS ensemble mean near that timeframe shows the dual blocking signal. This is a strong signal for a -NAO Greenland block and -EPO Gulf of Alaska Block




3 outta 4 CFSv2 ensembles show the snow swath from this system




Half of the 6z GFS ensembles have this system



Progged Euro NAO values also show a negative tendecy around this timeframe. Im expecting the rest of guidance to pick up on the Greenland block during this timeframe




And Lastly the latest op run of the GFS showing the monster Miller A

This is great to see! It may be the one for me.one dump for the whole winter in one shot!

latest gfs run just hammers west tn with a big thumping of snow... i was thinking this timeframe might produce a nice severe weather event for us, models were hinting at that for while... but since then, blocking is getting picked up by latest data...noone the less, pretty confidedent a big storm system is brewing around valentines day era...

the latest gfs ensembles are sexy as PAMELA LEE ANDERSON in her prime.

Really excited about this timeframe.

I'm going to go ahead and make my prediction. If I'm wrong, then I'm wrong, but I'm sticking to this. I'll even make a bet with someone to ensure that I stick to this prediction. I predict that this will be a very borderline event. North of I-40 will do good, Central Valley will get a mix, and South Valley will get a dusting at best with mostly rain. This looks like a case where the LP will be too powerful/too close and will bring too much WAA to overcome. I know this is a great ways out, and I know that I'll get blasted by this by everyone here, but with all that said, this is the prediction I'm sticking to. I feel that strongly about it. Something to watch? Sure. But also something that could be very borderline.

Tom not saying your wrong totally but verbatim the low is in the best position you could ask for in regards to significant snowfall here in east TN.

Its really wayy to early to be discussing small scale details

LOL tom

smh

tom23 wrote:I'm going to go ahead and make my prediction. If I'm wrong, then I'm wrong, but I'm sticking to this. I'll even make a bet with someone to ensure that I stick to this prediction. I predict that this will be a very borderline event. North of I-40 will do good, Central Valley will get a mix, and South Valley will get a dusting at best with mostly rain. This looks like a case where the LP will be too powerful/too close and will bring too much WAA to overcome. I know this is a great ways out, and I know that I'll get blasted by this by everyone here, but with all that said, this is the prediction I'm sticking to. I feel that strongly about it. Something to watch? Sure. But also something that could be very borderline.

surace low pressure sho looks like west tn is in a good position according to alot of the ensemble members... waa may be a problem for some in east tn, especially the se corner, chatty area)... but way to early to be nick picking at the moment on this system, hell, euro ensmebles says, what storm?

My prediction! Middle and west tn get this storm! 6-12in. The storm will come a little further nw than showing! So will the warmth sorry east tn! It will be a app cutter.

Warm air advection/aloft will not be a problem in east TN. This is the best setup there is for a good dumping here in ETN. Classic Miller A and a strong one with thast. The track is alot like the infamous SS93! East tn does 10 times better than west TN with miller a stermtrack.

Bruce you need to stick to the severe side of thangs son!

Jscentraltn wrote:My prediction! Middle and west tn get this storm! 6-12in. The storm will come a little further nw than showing! So will the warmth sorry east tn! It will be a app cutter.

Agreed! Good prediction JS!

Jscentraltn wrote:My prediction! Middle and west tn get this storm! 6-12in. The storm will come a little further nw than showing! So will the warmth sorry east tn! It will be a app cutter.

Stop wishcasting..and get out of fantasy land

LOL!! I think we all are wishcasting at 300 hrs. But it is fun to see!

Hell the models can't predict what is going on at 8 hrs! The sun shining and 43 degrees at my house! Forecast say's r/s mix today!

Jscentraltn wrote:LOL!! I think we all are wishcasting at 300 hrs. But it is fun to see!

no my original post in this thread shoed plenty of support for my post. u thr only one wishcasting

LOL!!! This post is from one run! But the gfs I just looked at showed something a little different. I know that this will flip flop for some time but the outcome will be a diffrent. Only because we are sitting at 288 to 300 hrs from the event! So I will wishcast until I have to nowcast because it will be a close call or a full out bust and go to far south! Who knows?

No wishcasting allowed on this forum..sorry Jscent!

If you are going to forecast... provide some model data to back it up! Im pretty leniant but at least provide one model to back up your forecast. Forecasting without guidance support is bad meteorology. We likr meteorology but it has to be sound meteorolgy to be taken seriously. Otherwise we look like a bunch of idiots thta dont know your ass from a hole in the ground!

I know man! It's hard not too! I just hope that it does pan out. I'am a weather freak and love winter. But all weather events! It will be nice to get a decent snow before it's over. It's been a dry 2 yrs for me with snow!

Toot wrote:Warm air advection/aloft will not be a problem in east TN. This is the best setup there is for a good dumping here in ETN. Classic Miller A and a strong one with thast. The track is alot like the infamous SS93! East tn does 10 times better than west TN with miller a stermtrack.

Bruce you need to stick to the severe side of thangs son!

LMAO. ok were even buddy... all joke aside, west tn does pretty good on this set up, hope all the great state of tennessee does good if it verifies... but i wouldnt rule out some type of apps runner... depends on how much blocking is going on at the time... and how strong high pressure is to our north, and what position its in

We'll to answer that all the model data that I have seen has been there but hasn't done anything. The cold came and left the blocking never got set up to last! The NAO has stayed net to post the last 2 months! So all of the predictions that I have seen for this winter are not true! So I don't forecast! I just watch and listen!

Toot wrote:No wishcasting allowed on this forum..sorry Jscent!

If you are going to forecast... provide some model data to back it up! Im pretty leniant but at least provide one model to back up your forecast. Forecasting without guidance support is bad meteorology. We likr meteorology but it has to be sound meteorolgy to be taken seriously. Otherwise we look like a bunch of idiots thta dont know your ass from a hole in the ground!

Well since i'am not a forecaster and you guy's have all nailed down this will be my last post on this forum! Maybe I will see you t.v. One day giving my forecast! Thanks!!!

Wait..I think you took me the wrong way..all im asking you to do is back up your forecasts with model data. I truly think you have the potential to become a great forecaster. If you want to make it in the field of meteorology you will have to have scientific reasononing as to your forecasrt. If yoiu dont want to improve your accuracy and respect from other posters then go right ahaed and gives your forecasts/opinions without abythiung to back them up. I want everyones opinion..scientific or not. Dont leave..I enjoy your posts

Toot wrote:Wait..I think you took me the wrong way..all im asking you to do is back up your forecasts with model data. I truly think you have the potential to become a great forecaster. If you want to make it in the field of meteorology you will have to have scientific reasononing as to your forecasrt. If yoiu dont want to improve your accuracy and respect from other posters then go right ahaed and gives your forecasts/opinions without abythiung to back them up. I want everyones opinion..scientific or not. Dont leave..I enjoy your posts

LOL!!! I do take back my statement! I can't leave man I'm hooked. I know what your saying about data and models and backing up what I talk about with that! But I have trouble with that when I don't buy it yet! Overall what they have shown hasn't come to pass for the most part! Like today my weather guy looks like an ass! It's still snowing at my house he said rain by 11am! Sometimes opinion are better than the model forecast now days!

the euro looked really good today at day 9 and day 10, classic pna , with ridging out west... nice energy held back in the sw, looks like its fixing to pop up a slp to our sw..... but now the 18z gfs still with the big storm, but its a severe setup on that run, lakes cutter...i am not going to sweat it or sit here and model hug just yet, cause changes will occur still... but main thing here, still looks to be a strong storm system around the lovers day timeframe.