Valentines Day snow

seems like a bit of a stretch IMO toot but i hope you are right

If it tracks that far north we will be way too warm. Need that sucker about 300 miles to the south.

The GFS giveth and it also taketh away. It been doing that 99.7% of the time this winter.

Modeling for this time period looks pretty good today. I don't have my computer or I could post more images. One thing that also looks good is the MJO, which is officially in phase one now, heading toward phase 2. These are allegedly great phases for feb. It looks as though these phases coils help to give us a split flow and help build a W US ridge. Couple that with a ao progged to tank, and it appears that fun times may lie ahead right around vday, and shortly thereafter! Winter ain't over by a long shot!

Jed33 wrote:Modeling for this time period looks pretty good today. I don't have my computer or I could post more images. One thing that also looks good is the MJO, which is officially in phase one now, heading toward phase 2. These are allegedly great phases for feb. It looks as though these phases coils help to give us a split flow and help build a W US ridge. Couple that with a ao progged to tank, and it appears that fun times may lie ahead right around vday, and shortly thereafter! Winter ain't over by a long shot!

i can tell you on the 18z gfs, the storm cuts up to ar west, and slams the 1 44 corridor... but that is going to be expected... storm still there is the main thing... its going to waffle some

Yep bruce, I'm just encouraged by the trends. I think we can reasonably expect 1 or 2 more threats for winter weather b4 all is said and done

Jed33 wrote:Yep bruce, I'm just encouraged by the trends. I think we can reasonably expect 1 or 2 more threats for winter weather b4 all is said and done

yep jed, i agree, the teleconnections look to be about right for us for the next 3 weeks at least.

18zGFS at 192 before resolution goes all to hell

Yeah! It will be close as long as the NAO and PNA stay flat. The models are out of wack! We need the NAO to go neg. if it don't it will be a app runner or off to the lakes we go! I really want this one

Js, an apps runner would be a great track for you in NW middle TN. Toot or anyone else can correct me, but if I'm not mistaken, you want to be anywhere from 250-350mi NW of the track depending on the strength of the low, and how much cold air is available.

It all depends on orientaion of the 500mb trough. If it reallly gets tilteld extremely negative then the north side of the low becomes the warm sector/south side the cold sector and many variations in between the standard NW cold sector...but yeah on most systems the NW side is the cold sector of the low.

That said.... Apps runners can also be good in east TN if the system is strong enough..The infamous Febuary "Bluegrass Runner" of the 10/11winte was and apps runner and I measured around 6-7 inches

Toot wrote:It all depends on orientaion of the 500mb trough. If it reallly gets tilteld extremely negative then the north side of the low becomes the warm sector/south side the cold sector and many variations in between the standard NW cold sector...but yeah on most systems the NW side is the cold sector of the low.

That said.... Apps runners can also be good in east TN if the system is strong enough..The infamous Febuary "Bluegrass Runner" of the 10/11winte was and apps runner and I measured around 6-7 inches

Does this mean we are not looking at a classic miller a?

Neals wrote:

Toot wrote:It all depends on orientaion of the 500mb trough. If it reallly gets tilteld extremely negative then the north side of the low becomes the warm sector/south side the cold sector and many variations in between the standard NW cold sector...but yeah on most systems the NW side is the cold sector of the low.

That said.... Apps runners can also be good in east TN if the system is strong enough..The infamous Febuary "Bluegrass Runner" of the 10/11winte was and apps runner and I measured around 6-7 inches

Does this mean we are not looking at a classic miller a?

Or does apps runner relate to the position of the storms low/high track?

Neals wrote:
Does this mean we are not looking at a classic miller a?

Here is my cone of uncertaqinty....I think the surface low will track anywhere as far south as the southern track with the possibility of the northern track also in play and of course anywhere in between those two. Lots of uncertainties with this one still



The dates need to be bumped forrward a day on that graphic

"Here is my cone of uncertaqinty....I think the surface low will track anywhere as far south as the southern track with the possibility of the northern track also in play and of course anywhere in between those two. Lots of uncertainties with this one still"

Ok. So the more southeast the better, right? Then the steeper it climbs back up the better, right? The steepness comes from blocking? The southeast track from the artic jet? So if I am correct so far. Where does moisture come from? And how do you look for that sign?

Neals wrote:
Ok. So the more southeast the better, right?

Yes..the more southeast the surface low is in that cone of uncertainty the better our chances are for snow

Neals wrote:
Then the steeper it climbs back up the better, right?

Yes. the more northward the low tracks the more blocking in the Atlantic. If There was no blocking it would slide straight out to sea.

Neals wrote:
The steepness comes from blocking?

If "steepness" means the more northward it tracks towards the NE then yes!

Neals wrote:
The southeast track from the artic jet?

No..there is no such terminology as "Arctic jet" I think you could be referring to the polar jet.

Neals wrote:
Where does moisture come from? And how do you look for that sign?

Moisture is usually provided by shortwave troughs in the polar or subtropical jet. We mainly use guidance models to look for these shortwaves but sometimes use satellite and radar data too. When I get time I will create a thread on how to read different aspecdts on guidance models

Latest run of the European model has our big dog valentines day winter storm that I have been telling you about long before the models picked up on it. This model has snow breaking out in Tennesseee..North Carolina..Virginia..Kentucky..West Virginia. This would turn into a bonified Nor'easter and become a significant to major winter storm for the I-95 Corridor and the east coast!

It forms a strong low in the gulf near the LA coast...could be a big one folks!

Euro Ens shows a 1016 High sitting over North Dakota. GFS Ens at the same time period is showing close to the same as well. I don't know if there will be enough cold air to work with. Add to that the surface low isn't all that strong and the ULL never gets close to merging with the surface low. Right now it looks like a disjointed mess to me. Not impressed at the moment.

snowdog wrote:Euro Ens shows a 1016 High sitting over North Dakota. GFS Ens at the same time period is showing close to the same as well. I don't know if there will be enough cold air to work with. Add to that the surface low isn't all that strong and the ULL never gets close to merging with the surface low. Right now it looks like a disjointed mess to me. Not impressed at the moment.

That's my concern as well Snowdog - but if there's a time of year where this storm track is climo favorable for this to be snow, even if models are suggesting otherwise, its now. Kinda reminds me of last years deep low pressure that dynamically cooled the column. The plateau got pounded and we got 3 hours of heavy snow at 35 degrees.

I agree Mundie, this has plenty of time to become more appealing. Track and climo are a big part of it, which Toot has laid out.

Hello everyone! This is my take on the situation.Since the mjo is entering phase 1 and looks to enter the cod(circle of death) shortly after that, imo, winter is done for the south. Outside of the higher elevations obviously. No blocking is NOT good for us. Time to be thinking bout next winter. Like snowdog said, the ensembles show not enuf cold air to work with this storm round vday. I will check back saturday nite to see if im correct or not. I like winter more than most, but its not taking place this winter

yeah..right now were just looking for a lps taking a favorable track for winter weather. If we get the system and track the euro is showing temp profiles will in time fall into place. You really cant look at temps when a system is still over a week out. If the euro is correct with the track of this low other paramaters will fall into place. That is how long range forecasting works

And anyone calling winter over when its the first week of feb will be made a fool of by my good friend named climatology

Gfs shows a good snow around the 17th or 18th on 6utc run or maybe its the 12 would have to go back and look. But many times this winter it has show some good snow but within a few days of the big event it's gone. I know this is in the land of Voo Doo but it something to hope for. Since most of Tennessee has not seen much or any snow this winter. Best place this year has been in the NE part of the state. So we will see, and it does show more cold air mid to later part of the month but it has done that before to. So time will tell. Hope it does. If not winter is over for sure. Have a good day.