Valentines Day snow

I think Nashville may end up being the sweet spot with this winter storm. They deserve one!! I still think most places in Tennessee will likely see some accumulating snow of course the ripoff zone may be southeast TN again. I know you guys are getting tired of that

18z went a bit more SE with the LP track.

Im noticing a trend of a deeper surface low too John. This one may very well end up being a

Toot wrote:I think Nashville may end up being the sweet spot with this winter storm. They deserve one!! I still think most places in Tennessee will likely see some accumulating snow of course the ripoff zone may be southeast TN again. I know you guys are getting tired of that

Can you give me more detail on that? Being just north of Nashville, I can attest to the fact that it has been many years since we have had enough snow to plow

weathertree4u wrote:
Can you give me more detail on that? Being just north of Nashville, I can attest to the fact that it has been many years since we have had enough snow to plow

Welcome to the forum!

I was speaking in terms of unelevated areas in Tennessee. As it sits right now with the guidance consensus the GFS suite/CMC suite..the track would favor Nashville being in that "Sweet Spot" where temp profiles and moisture are just right for moderate to heavy synoptic snow!

This whole thing seems to be trending stronger tho..the ensembles are just getting too sexy to look at and have trended slightly east. I have quite the suspicion that this is going to trend into a classic Miller A where most of the state does nicely..even Chatanooga. But guidance isnt quite there yet but damn..its getting close!

Seriously!! This is starting to take on that "Classic" Tenneseee snow storm look!

All is great for now!! I still think the models will still go back and forth. The placement of the lp on the 18z is still to far south and east. Most of the state gets snow! But middle tn gets it!! Who know's how much? We'll see by Sunday!

It would be nice to get what boston is going to get!! But I know I will need to move there b4 I see that in Tennessee!!! LOL

Area discussion of NWS in Louisville, KY [quote]Guidance then begins to diverge with the handling of a southern
stream system on Wednesday. The 08/12Z GFS has been quite
aggressive the past run or two with bringing a deformation band of
rain/snow into southern KY. In fact, taken at face value, the
08/12Z GFS would give several inches of a heavy, wet snow to
southern KY. The bad news for all you snow lovers is that the ECMWF
has been very consistent in its solution of keeping all the
precipitation south. Therefore, will lean toward the consistent
ECMWF and continue with a dry forecast. However, this system will
need to be watched in the coming days as the operational GFS now is
gaining some support from some of its 08/12Z ensemble members.

Otherwise, the Wednesday system quickly pushes east, allowing for
dry conditions to work back in for Thursday. After highs in the 40s
on Wednesday, temperatures will rebound into the upper 40s and lower
50s on Thursday.

LOL I cant believe NWS Louisville! They are calling the euro consistent?

Its been all over the map with this system..and it is out to still out to lunch right now! I would put big money down that it will come back in line with the GFS. The GFS has MAJOR ensemble support.

18zGFS ensemble snow swaths..amounts unimportant and likely wrong but snow placement is the value that comes from this graphic

I ensemble no 4 would be find with me.

I'am starting to get a little concerned! The GFS last two runs have moved closer to the euro!!! Which for me is to far east for any major accum! Not buying it just yet! But if the trend continues tomm I will rip my hair out!!!!!!

0z GFS major shift eastward too..Classic Miller A look! Totals are still unimportant right now. Where the snowfalls is what to take away from this image. This could be a very widespread snowstorm

Notice the swath of accumulating snow has basically covered the whole state now

Thanks toot! Maybe this low will be stronger than shown! Which will be great. Map looks good at this point I will take the 1 to 1 1/2 in for my area!

This one still looks like 1-4 inches across a good portion of especially East Tennessee. The President's day storm is just a monster. It actually improved on 00z.

Still too early to say any specific amounts IMO. Ensemble guidance still seems to be trending deeper with surface low

0z Canadian continues eastward trend

John1122 wrote:This one still looks like 1-4 inches across a good portion of especially East Tennessee. The President's day storm is just a monster. It actually improved on 00z.

I agree with the one after the Valentine Day storm, that one is looking a little more than even I wanted, better be careful what you wish for I guess

GFS 6Z run has snow on the Northern TN Counties. Still a lot of model jumping going on.

ballpark wrote:GFS 6Z run has snow on the Northern TN Counties. Still a lot of model jumping going on.

Yea, now to get the NWS on board

6z Ensembles a little less organized this run



The big dog looks to be the storm after this one even tho this one aint no slouch its just not a big dog when compared to what is being progged after this one! I will take big dog out of the this thread title.

This is starting to get into the NAM's range and the NAM definately has a good look to it!


This one is gonna catch people off guard due to the wall to wall media coverage of the Yankee Screamer blizzard...lol

Nobody is really mentioning this system which could have really widespread affects from teh Arlkatex on up into the NE!

18z NAM

That run of the Nam model looks like cold air chasing the precip which hardly ever works out even decently for unelevated areas. May be the best we can hope for out of this system in Tennessee however

tom23 wrote:That run of the Nam model looks like cold air chasing the precip

You need to go do some meteorology homework if you think that is cold air chasing precip..LOL

It's not cold chasing moisture at all Tom. That's what happens when a LP moves by to the west and north, then pulls a cold front through. This is a Miller A that's throwing up moisture and dragging down cold air into it.

The 18z GFS looks okay for this event. Sadly it's probably not going to have a strong P-day storm because the storm is heading ots instead of bombing in NE.