Re: Valentines Day snow

by **Clarksville Snowman** 2013-02-10, 4:31 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:
tom23 wrote:What did the 18z Nam do toot?
it came in with a more northern track... best snows in illinois northern kentucky

Wouldn't even a more more northerly track help out with the next storm, could it help with a 50-50 low for the next president day time frame. I was thinking we didn't want a out to sea track with the first system. Thanks in advance

by **John1122** 2013-02-10, 4:34 pm

The storm is moving back closer to what it was when it was showing the big Monday storm. East Tennessee is getting more and more on the bad side of this one.

by **Jscentraltn** 2013-02-10, 4:41 pm

If you look at the track from the 12z to the 18z the precip is lighter but the lp placement is better it is further south and east! This is the NAM! It will be very interesting to see how it pans out!

by **Jscentraltn** 2013-02-10, 4:50 pm

Further north track was on the 12z run not the 18z run. 18z run shows the heavy snow band in s/c Kentucky and tennessee border!! sneaky

by **tennessee storm09** 2013-02-10, 4:56 pm

Clarksville Snowman wrote:
tennessee storm09 wrote:
tom23 wrote:What did the 18z Nam do toot?
it came in with a more northern track... best snows in illinois northern kentucky
Wouldn't even a more more northerly track help out with the next storm, could it help with a 50-50 low for the next president day time frame. I was thinking we didn't want a out to sea track with the first system. Thanks in advance

very well could help some clarksville... just have to see what transpires next couple of days see if the models can pop up a surface low...

by **Jscentraltn** 2013-02-10, 4:59 pm

Just looking at the 18z run GFS! It as well stayed about the same but weaker with this storm for us!! So I don't know now what to say!!!!!!!! Think snow!!!

by **snowdog** 2013-02-10, 6:16 pm

SREF and NAM have been pretty consistent in showing the low cut from Memphis to Nashville. Obviously this would not be the solution we are looking for. The GFS ensemble and Euro ensembles and ukmet have consistently showed a more southern solution. The CMC has the storm way too far south.

by **jmundie** 2013-02-10, 6:27 pm

Pretty amazing the model disagreement beyond about 48 hours. Ensembles all over the place too. Without nailing down this system, we certainly don't know what's going to happen later in the week.

by **Toot** 2013-02-10, 6:52 pm

The Valentines Day storm has trended towards a much weaker and less dynamic solution overall and this will have big impacts on possible snow totals. This system was one that mostly relied on dynamics for cooling of the column to begin with. And now since the system will likely be less dynamic than first thought will only allow for mostly light accumulation totals and which will mainly be on grassy surfaces.

This Valentines day system will still need to be watched for trends as models dont really seem to have a good hold on this system hence all the disagreement. The lighter shade of blue represents a trace to two inches and the darker shade represents 2 to 4 inches.

Valentines Day snow - Page 8 19800_372307159543709_1717334885_n

Valentines Day snow - Page 8 19800_372307159543709_1717334885_n

by **Jscentraltn** 2013-02-10, 9:58 pm

Looking at the new 0z NAM it still is just as weak as last run! So depending on the placement of the lp will tell who gets a little snow! It looks like for now cold rain ending as a little snowshower for me!

by **tom23** 2013-02-10, 10:27 pm

Its getting about time to stick a fork in this one except for maybe a few scattered snow showers/flizzards. If 12z tomorrow keeps the weak trend going then I'm officially sticking a huge fork in it for anything other than a dusting in areas around me

by **Jscentraltn** 2013-02-10, 10:58 pm

0z GFS run looks a little better than last and has the lp in a good spot! Northern Tennessee and southern Kentucky in the heavy precip zone!

by **Jscentraltn** 2013-02-11, 10:44 pm

The NAM is wetter and further south and east with placement of the lp! Someone may get a surprise with this little storm! May get a few inches if it can cool fast enough and snow hard enough!!!! I'll take what I can get right now! Very Happy

by **Pman1618** 2013-02-11, 10:53 pm

Can you post a picture of the NAM please? Jscentraltn

by **John1122** 2013-02-11, 11:20 pm

The NAM is very warm at the surface. You'll have to get heavy precip rates to overcome that and have snow fall. Right now, it looks less than great outside the higher elevations for that to occur.

by **Jed33** 2013-02-12, 12:26 pm

WRF tries hard to bring some snow showers to the mtns. of ETN late tomorrow into Wed. whether or not it's anything is to be determined I guess.

by **Jed33** 2013-02-12, 1:19 pm

You know it's a bad winter when a southern slider won't produce for us facepalm

freakin deform band is all rain, until it hits the mtns.

by **VFL** 2013-02-12, 1:48 pm

Purposes to change thread title again to "more bark than bite from Big Dog".

by **Jed33** 2013-02-13, 2:52 pm

Jed33 wrote:You know it's a bad winter when a southern slider won't produce for us freakin deform band is all rain, until it hits the mtns.

Ok, so, it ended up not being a Southern Slider, lol. WRF was wrong on this one. However, when I typed this sentence, it was showing what would have been a southern slider. This is more like an Ohio Valley special. Some snow in KY for sure. WRF is still a little to far South with the precip shield.

by **Jscentraltn** 2013-02-13, 11:03 pm

I got some wet snow for about 45 min this moring! Then back over to rain then quit.

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