Valentines Day snow

Annnnnnnd boom goes the dynamite

The low track for me in tenn would be best if it track along SE GA.

The newest run of the most dependable guidance model we have at this range still has the significant snow storm for the TN valley/Mid Atlantic and Northeast during the Valentines day timeframe. (This is two runs in a row) Alot of forecasters are taking temperature profiles verbatim 10 days out which is a NO NO with a system of this caliber. This type of system will be an overperformer if it verifies not an underperformer!

If the storm that the european model shows takes the track that it is suggesting it will dump significant snows in the cold sector of the low (Deformation band) up and down the I-95 corridor and into the Appalachians. This is a CLASSIC Miller A storm system that turns into an intense Nor'easter. I repeat..If the system on the euro verifies climatology will ensure a significant snowfall for a large chunk of the eastern US! I expect you will start seeing this storm start to trend colder and colder on guidance models as blocking will also likely trend much stronger.


If you have euro graphics requests just let me know what hour. The snowfall clown maps are not lining up with the synoptics just yet but that will soon change if this storm continues to be modeled

Toot, you are talking about the eastern coast and also the I95 corridor. I'm guessing this is also going to be a threat for us as well if the track comes true??

Toot, Show me a hr that gives this end of the state something.

tom23 wrote:Toot, you are talking about the eastern coast and also the I95 corridor. I'm guessing this is also going to be a threat for us as well if the track comes true??

Yes it will be a threat here also..its a classic Miller A that is being progged by the euro. The reason I am talking about other areas is because that post was taken from my blog where I forecast for the whole eastern US. Ihave posted a more localized graphic from the euro in the members section

Dyersburg Weather wrote:Toot, Show me a hr that gives this end of the state something.

DW so far this one is too far east for you so I cant really show you much..but a NW trend could certainly be in order and I expect one to some degree... especially with the weaker blocking. Right now the euro shows all the action mainly in middle and east TN but that will likely change some.

I definately wouldnt say you are out of the ballgame on this one right now. Its still a little over a week out and you now how those NW trends go. It will be a fun one to track..thats for sure

Yeah! Not buying the new GFS run. Way to far south to suppressed! Think snow!it's coming. We will get some blocking. Just don't know how much. I'am going to bed wake me the day before it hits! Thanks

00z GFS is an apps runner....not too bad for TN imo

SEMonroeWx wrote:00z GFS is an apps runner....not too bad for TN imo

Apps runners are usually Western Middle TN and points west kind of storms. The 00z GFS would be a rainer with hoping for something on the backside of the storm for most of us East of Clarksville to Jackson or so.

Well..good to see the gfs come back to its senses..the CMC is suppressed right where I want all of them to be right now. The GFS as said above is an Apps Runner..the Euro is a Miller A. I hope everyone is ready for a wild ride..cause we got a week to watch where this baby is gonna track and lay down some big dog snow!

On second thought the GFS looks pretty damn good..the clown maps might not look good but I like 0z GFS

I just think that track on 0z would be too warm for much snow East of Nashville until the low got further NW, then you'd probably have some backside snow showers.

Need a HP of some strength somewhere near the midwest.

The GFS Ens are weaker/further south/colder. Hopefully it comes a few hundred north, and the OP a few hundred south.

John1122 wrote:The GFS Ens are weaker/further south/colder. Hopefully it comes a few hundred north, and the OP a few hundred south.

The euro looks warmer..but the better data hasnt came in yet. Where do you see individual ensembles this early? Anyways..im off to bed,,barely can hold my eyes open

Euro looked cold to me, but the huge storm was gone. If EWall was showing updated maps. It appeared it was to me. Of course they're only 24 hour maps. But by 168 540 line is well south, by 192 the 850 is on the Gulf Coast.

So I'm not sure what's going down in the increments yet.

I have never seen so much ensemble support for a southern stream system. Looks like we have two legit shots at a major southern stream system between the 13-18

Models trying to converge on the southern stream znow threat. 12z cmc

18z GFS looks ok for NW Tn.



The next one at hr 264 says BOOM !!!

18z continues the trend of boundary layer temp issues. Something to watch for. And something I said would be the problem a long while back when we first started talking of this system.

Track yet to be determined.. although I lean towards the GFS track..I still think a hair east of it

The GFS wants to cut it just west of the Appalachian mountains making for a bonified "Apps runner" that can still lay several inches of snow down but mostly west of the Apps and into the northeast. The GFS actually makes the most sense to me out of todays guidance models. The 12z european run was ignored as it didnt make much synoptic sense.

The 12z Canadian had a double barrel low that tracks just inland alot like a Miller a or an inland runner but the canadian likes to give everyone a low so will also disregard that aspect. The GFS ensembles are of no help either as they are all over the place! There is still several days for guidance to sort the synoptics out on this system and get us some better agreement.

The GFS is too all over the map for me to lean on at all right now. It's shifting the LP hundreds of miles each run. Sadly the one consistent is that it's moving the LP west of the APPs.

If it comes west of the apps it won't be much! It will probably end up just east. The map that toot has I think is pretty close! Only time will tell. the models just suck! Maybe in a bout 2 or 3 day's they will have better data. Think snow!!!!!

The 18z GFS does unleash massive cold in the wake of this storm with another southern stream system coming up 4-5 days after this one bombs out in the NE.

Yeah! The NE gets hit good this weekend. That's without blocking really in place everything is net. Just think when we can get the block set- up what will happen! Fun next 2 week for sure! BRING IT ALL!!!!