Re: Valentines Day snow

by **Toot** 2013-02-06, 9:49 pm

18z GFS ensembles looking much better for most of the state. Storm is more organized and a little east of the op on most members. I say the 0z GFS comes east a little and low is deeper. Models seem to be underestimating blocking..probably playing catch up. NAO headed towards tank

by **Jscentraltn** 2013-02-06, 10:18 pm

Feel good about this one! Could be the first snowstorm of a few for me! The way it looks right now. But I'll take my avg season snowfall all at once or in a 2 to 3 week period! That will make for a great winter for me! rock on

by **ballpark** 2013-02-06, 11:23 pm

I feel good about it but been getting let down for the last two years.

by **John1122** 2013-02-06, 11:23 pm

00z still heading right over Middle Tn with the LP. Not encouraging for most of the state yet.

by **Toot** 2013-02-07, 8:18 am

0zCMC

Valentines Day snow - Page 5 PT_PN_156_0000

by **tom23** 2013-02-07, 8:52 am

LOL you have the Gfs putting the LP in the middle of the state, the Euro putting it OTS giving the coast line snow/rain, and then you have the Canadian giving East Tn some good snow... what gives... I still like my earlier prediction of too much warm air, but I could easily see a track in the middle of the Gfs/Euro scenarios play out, which is what the Canadian is doing. Watch for trends.

by **tom23** 2013-02-07, 8:53 am

Actually, after viewing the Canadian model for a second time, it looks like it puts WAA in effect for most of East Tn. Which is exactly what I think will ultimately play out.

by **destair** 2013-02-07, 9:21 am

Any where we can find out what all these acronymns are? WAA,LP,OTS, etc. Us newbies don't have a clue.

by **tom23** 2013-02-07, 10:09 am

destair wrote:Any where we can find out what all these acronymns are? WAA,LP,OTS, etc. Us newbies don't have a clue.

My apologies Destair, I should've spelled it out lol. WAA means Warm Air Advection, which typically occurs when the LP is strong/close to the affected region where the WAA is taking place. It practically means either a mix of snow/rain or plain cold rain in general. Thats what takes place with most, but not all, systems when the origin spot of the LP, or Low Pressure, is in the Gulf of Mexico, where all the warm waters are. OTS basically means Out To Sea, which is just a term that means that the system's LP, or Low Pressure, is in the ocean and not on land, which gives the coastline areas much more precip than the inland areas, such as us.

by **tom23** 2013-02-07, 10:11 am

And the best way to learn is to ask question after question. We encourage that because it means that people are learning, whether they know they are or not.

by **etnwx** 2013-02-07, 11:06 am

National Weather Service Glossary

http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php

pirat

by **destair** 2013-02-07, 12:13 pm

tom23 wrote:
destair wrote:Any where we can find out what all these acronymns are? WAA,LP,OTS, etc. Us newbies don't have a clue.

My apologies Destair, I should've spelled it out lol. WAA means Warm Air Advection, which typically occurs when the LP is strong/close to the affected region where the WAA is taking place. It practically means either a mix of snow/rain or plain cold rain in general. Thats what takes place with most, but not all, systems when the origin spot of the LP, or Low Pressure, is in the Gulf of Mexico, where all the warm waters are. OTS basically means Out To Sea, which is just a term that means that the system's LP, or Low Pressure, is in the ocean and not on land, which gives the coastline areas much more precip than the inland areas, such as us.

by **Toot** 2013-02-07, 2:54 pm

12z guidance looks much better fr tn valley to mid atlantic snow. Gfs and its ensembles all look pretty decent now. It will be a rain to snow situation for most

by **Snowflake** 2013-02-07, 4:58 pm

Toot, Just a quick question. Which areas of TN are defined as the "tn valley"? Does that include the East TN valley or just mid and western TN? Thanks.

by **Jed33** 2013-02-07, 5:21 pm

Western TN is not part of the TN valley beyond the TN river. West of the TN river is part of the gulf coastal plain, or MS Valley, over to the MS Rvr. Basically, in TN, the TN valley runs from middle to eastern TN. Of course, it also includes AL from about 30mi south of the river, N to the TN state line. It includes extreme NE MS, extreme NW GA, around Chattanooga, extreme sw VA around Bristol, and extreme S and E KY too. This whole area is what would be referred to as the TN valley. Although, I don't know for sure, but when he says TN valley in this setup, i'm pretry sure he's talking about TN northward. I think AL,even, North, may be too far South to get the good stuff on this one. Could be wrong though, Toot correct me if I am.

by **Snowflake** 2013-02-07, 5:33 pm

Thanks for the explanation, Jed!

by **Toot** 2013-02-07, 7:40 pm

18z Ensembles
Valentines Day snow - Page 5 F138

by **Jed33** 2013-02-07, 8:13 pm

Nice Toot! Really liking what I'm seeing here.

by **Jscentraltn** 2013-02-07, 9:53 pm

Looking at the 18z GFS looks pretty good for Tennessee! It looks colder! Can't say for sure just yet. Maybe by sat we will know what's up! For now just watch the flip flop continue!

by **Jed33** 2013-02-07, 10:00 pm

Fwiw, Foothills (Robert) thinks the upcoming period has more potential than we've seen. He believes TN is the number one location likely to experience at least one more winter storm!

by **Toot** 2013-02-07, 11:53 pm

0z GFS dramatically shifts eastward...it has weak Miller A (Which is east TN's best track for snow and not so much for west TN which was the big winner at 12z) beer