Re: Valentines Day snow

by **Toot** 2013-02-02, 6:33 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote: but now the 18z gfs still with the big storm, but its a severe setup on that run, lakes cutter

No No NO it didnt it remained concistent (which is very odd) and really gives credence to this styetm with the intense miller a
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by **tennessee storm09** 2013-02-02, 6:46 pm

boy, do i stand to be corrected, i was focusing on the storm before that one, my bad folks... toot, i swear i am not drunk brother... just the wrong storm... man the gfs is very active down the mid long range. WOW

by **Jscentraltn** 2013-02-02, 8:24 pm

Your right toot! It is odd for the that to be showing over and over! Looks pretty good right now for east tn! Norm for this winter is here then gone model after model! drool

by **SEMonroeWx** 2013-02-02, 8:59 pm

Saw where the Euro has the H5 energy over LA @ 276 on accupro. 18z GFS had if in about the same area IMO. Looks like really good potential with this system.

by **John1122** 2013-02-02, 9:41 pm

If that thing is still similar at all in 7 days it'll be interesting.

by **Toot** 2013-02-02, 9:51 pm

by **tennessee storm09** 2013-02-03, 12:06 am

tonights 0z gfs has our storm suppressed... but thats no big deal... the big story is, the gfs is showing a positive pna ... negative nao ao and more importanly, the mjo is getting in the perfect phase for us to score big... the euro is slowly going towards the euro , just taking baby steps to it.

by **snowdog** 2013-02-03, 12:39 am

tennessee storm09 wrote:the euro is slowly going towards the euro

You sure you aren't drunk tonight? pals

by **tennessee storm09** 2013-02-03, 9:03 am

snowdog wrote:
tennessee storm09 wrote:the euro is slowly going towards the euro

You sure you aren't drunk tonight?

well that was before the 0z came doggie, lol... but now after that run, i edit that... this mornings 6z still squashed with our big dog valentines storm.

by **LoganMulti12** 2013-02-03, 9:52 am

I just hope it come true. I hope it gives snow from everyone from TN to mid-Atlantic up the I-95 corridor. Do you think it has a good chance of doing that? But didn't the 00z GFS model suppressed the storm today or making the storm OTS?

by **John1122** 2013-02-03, 9:57 am

At this range far better OTS than GLC. I'm just hoping a southern stream system sticks around and comes to pass during this time frame.

by **tennessee storm09** 2013-02-03, 10:04 am

John1122 wrote:At this range far better OTS than GLC. I'm just hoping a southern stream system sticks around and comes to pass during this time frame.

i agree with you john, after the lakes cutter... we should get into a colder pattern again... just hoping some energy can sneak up from the southern branch... middle of february to the end may be our best n perhaps last chance to cash in something big statewide, outside the laste season suprise before spring starts to wake up from the dead.

by **Toot** 2013-02-03, 1:08 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote: middle of february to the end may be our best n perhaps last chance to cash in something big statewide, outside the laste season suprise before spring starts to wake up from the dead.

Valentines day timeframe has toots signature of approval for a

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by **Toot** 2013-02-03, 2:15 pm

This feature caught my eye on last nights euro rum. you have a low that intense I dont care 2hat progged temp profiles are..you will have yourself a major winter storm
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by **Jed33** 2013-02-03, 2:23 pm

Man Toot, I love the dogs, they just keep getting bigger and bigger! Lets hope the storm is that way!

by **Grandpa Nasty** 2013-02-03, 5:37 pm

Toot wrote:This feature caught my eye on last nights euro rum. you have a low that intense I dont care 2hat progged temp profiles are..you will have yourself a major winter storm

Tooter,
I may have too many pre-game Coronas in me at the moment, so help me ou here brother. On this map it looks like the heavy heavy heavy precip is over N. Carolna with maybe a few inches from S. Tn towards knoxville. Am I looking at it wrong or does the low sling the precip back into the coldair getting sucked down and according to the map we get a nice snow and can whip up a batch of moonshine snow cream?
Sorry for the long, drawn out Corona enhanced sentences. sauce

by **Grandpa Nasty** 2013-02-03, 5:40 pm

On a side note I really need the Niners to cover. Everyone is betting Baltimore with me.

by **Toot** 2013-02-03, 5:53 pm

Grandpa Nasty wrote:
Tooter,
I may have too many pre-game Coronas in me at the moment, so help me ou here brother. On this map it looks like the heavy heavy heavy precip is over N. Carolna with maybe a few inches from S. Tn towards knoxville. Am I looking at it wrong or does the low sling the precip back into the coldair getting sucked down and according to the map we get a nice snow and can whip up a batch of moonshine snow cream?
Sorry for the long, drawn out Corona enhanced sentences.

Nasty if that verified all of us would get slammed..its a classic miller A. There is really no need to try and pinpoint where the heaviest stuff is right now because it will change. Its still ten days out and were just trying to figure out if this one is gonna cut to the lakes or gonna cut up the coast. I hope that sort of answers your question. If not just ask me a gain..and drink one for me..I have to work tomorrow

by **Jscentraltn** 2013-02-03, 6:18 pm

Toot sorry! But I have no data! But I still think this comes further south than what is showing! I don't buy the new GFS placement of the low it looks wierd to me. I don't think lakes. Bring it!!! Very Happy

by **secleveland** 2013-02-03, 6:26 pm

So is this coming in on the 2-8-13 why r you saying 10 days

by **Toot** 2013-02-03, 6:38 pm

This is not the Feb 8th system its the one afterwards that has my interest. I just posted thast euro graphic up above to show its trying to do something different. Still alot of disagreement between models

by **Neals** 2013-02-03, 9:26 pm

Toot it sounds like you think a a classic miller A is a setup you can identify well and almost the best set up for east tenn. I hope you nail this one as I would love to have 6-12 inches of snow. Thank you for sharing your knowledge. I promise you I will enjoy the next ten days of studying this possible Big Dog.

by **Toot** 2013-02-03, 9:46 pm

18z ensembles are way south and so is the operational GFS. Nice trend on tonights models. Will have a more detailed post on it later toinight

by **Toot** 2013-02-04, 12:19 am

Several guidance models have shifted south with a strong winter stoirm system

A possibly significant winter storm could affect the TN/OH Valleys..Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Its what we in the meteorology buisness call a "money in the bank" situation. An upper low or SW gets left behind in the southwestern US just meandering slowly eastward until an intense SW dives southeastward out of SW Canada. This shortwave persuades the leftover southern stream energy eastward and when the two meet up explosive cyclogenesis occurs.

Meanwhaile the circumpolar vortex being placed near Hudson bay will prevent the southern stream energy from moving northward or cutting into the great lakes region while at the same time providing a cold air source for this system to tap into. Winter weather could impact places as far south as Huntsville, AL and as far north as Maine.

Its still wayyy too early to say who.. or how much..or how strong it will be at this point as its still a week out. But it has the potential to become an intense Nor'easter. I have narrowed it down with my cone of uncertainty graphic. Laid out like this

The northern most track possible and teh southern most track possible with WXeasterns preffered track right down the middle where the lows are (Red L's)

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by **godzilla** 2013-02-04, 12:33 am

fingers crossed, hope we get some good snow in chattanooga!

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