March 2nd 2012 in like a lion!! HIGH RISK

I feel tomorrow is going to be a rough ride for were-ever the storms fire points east. So everyone especially east of Jackson Tennessee need to keep up with the weather tomorrow. Today went perfect outside no junk or nothing so we have fully recovered from yesterdays storms (Imo).

Thanks for those updates Van.

GEEZ,,
000
FXUS64 KOHX 012129
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
329 PM CST THU MAR 1 2012

.DISCUSSION...A BIG SEVERE WX OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED FOR MID TN
FRIDAY. STRONG LONG TRACK TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL ARE ALL POSSIBLE. SPC CONTINUES TO POST A MODERATE RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE MID STATE. THIS EVENT LOOKS MORE
WIDESPREAD AND SUBSTANTIAL THAN THE SEVERE THREAT WE HAD
YESTERDAY...PROBABLY THE BIGGEST OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES SINCE
APRIL 27, 2011. THIS EVENT COULD BE ONE OF THE GREATER IMPACT
EVENTS IN THE PAST FEW YEARS. THE PUBLIC SHOULD BE STRONGLY ADVISED
TO TAKE THIS THREAT VERY SERIOUSLY.

FOR TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES EARLY WITH HIGH PRESSURE. DEEP MOISTURE
WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER MID TN LATE IN THE
NIGHT...AND SOME MAY PRODUCE HAIL. A FEW REPORTS OF MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS A 40-50KT LLJ HELPS
DESTABILIZE THE MID LAYER.

ON FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES FROM THE MID MS
VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES. HEIGHTS WILL FALL AS A BROAD DEEP
TROUGH APPROACHES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO NW MID TN BY 00Z
SAT. WE EXPECT EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS TO LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE WARM FRONT. THEN PARTLY SUNNY...WARM AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 70S
AND PERHAPS LOWER 80S. THE BNA RECORD FOR MARCH 2ND IS 80 FROM
1951. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY IMPRESSIVE PARAMETERS WITH STRONG
WINDS AND INSTABILITY. NEW DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS COULD BEGIN BY
NOON...AND WHEN STORMS GET GOING...RAPID INTENSIFICATION WILL
OCCUR. THE EXPECTED TIMES OF HIGHEST IMPACT SEVERE WEATHER ARE
NOON TO 4 PM NEAR THE TN RIVER...2 PM TO 6 PM FOR BNA AND THE I 65
CORRIDOR...AND 3 PM TO 8 PM ON THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER
THE EAST HALF...BUT THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING WELL EAST OF
OUR AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

Man oh man. What do you say to this. Except pray baby pray. And pay attention please

Reed Timmer posted this map. These are insane 0-1 km EHIs for this time of year.

Damnit man.....thats some mighty strong wording from ohx

Toot wrote:Damnit man.....thats some mighty strong wording from ohx

Very much agree.

Where the heck is Bruce ?

Dyersburg Weather wrote:Where the heck is Bruce ?

Good question!

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
445 PM CST THU MAR 1 2012

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-021000-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CLARKSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...
GALLATIN...LAFAYETTE...CELINA...BYRDSTOWN...CAMDEN...ERIN...
WAVERLY...DICKSON...ASHLAND CITY...NASHVILLE...LEBANON...
MOUNT JULIET...HARTSVILLE...CARTHAGE...GAINESBORO...COOKEVILLE...
LIVINGSTON...JAMESTOWN...LOBELVILLE...CENTERVILLE...HOHENWALD...
FRANKLIN...BRENTWOOD...COLUMBIA...LEWISBURG...MURFREESBORO...
WOODBURY...SMITHVILLE...SPARTA...CROSSVILLE...SHELBYVILLE...
TULLAHOMA...MANCHESTER...MCMINNVILLE...ALTAMONT...SPENCER...
WAYNESBORO...LAWRENCEBURG...PULASKI
445 PM CST THU MAR 1 2012

...A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
FOR FRIDAY...
...MAIN THREATS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...
...SUPERCELLUAR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND MAY GENERATE
STRONG...LONG TRACK TORNADOES...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL PUSH NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW EVENING. ATMOSPHERIC
PARAMETERS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

ITS HARD TO BELIEVE...BUT THERE IS A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. THIS
WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD TONIGHT...KEEPING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT AROUND 60 DEGREES. KEEP IN MIND...OUR NORMAL LOW
TEMPERATURE IS IN THE 30S. AS THIS WARM FRONT PASSES TONIGHT...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL COME FLOODING BACK INTO THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL APPROACH 80 DEGREES...WAY ABOVE NORMAL.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THUS...BY TOMORROW...ALL THE INGREDIENTS...MOISTURE...INSTABILITY
AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...HOWEVER...WE THINK THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE TOMORROW
WITH THE BEST TIME FROM HIGH NOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

RESIDENTS SHOULD BE SURE THAT THEY HAVE A RELIABLE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION TOMORROW. EVERYONE SHOULD KNOW WHAT THEY NEED
TO DO AND WHERE THEY WILL GO IN THE EVENT A SEVERE STORM MOVES
INTO YOUR NEIGHBORHOOD. AS ALWAYS...NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR
LOCAL MEDIA ARE YOUR BEST SOURCE OF INFORMATION.




$$

Well here is my outlook on things: The warm front to our south will soon lift north and maybe bring some showers. If the sun comes back out the we really could be in some trouble. The I think storms will start to fire right over the Tennessee River. They should stay discrete for awhile and then go linear and form into bowing echos. I think that Middle Tennessee and Southern Kentucky are really in the bullseye for this one. If anyone has anything to add to this they can.

Dyersburg Weather wrote:Where the heck is Bruce ?

He probably had a heart attack from all this Long Track Tornado talk

Adam2014 wrote:Well here is my outlook on things: The warm front to our south will soon lift north and maybe bring some showers. If the sun comes back out the we really could be in some trouble. The I think storms will start to fire right over the Tennessee River. They should stay discrete for awhile and then go linear and form into bowing echos. I think that Middle Tennessee and Southern Kentucky are really in the bullseye for this one. If anyone has anything to add to this they can.

well thought out and well put together Adam.

Bruce is at work, though its very feasible he's had a Fred Sanford type heart attack from all the signals.... LOL

Edit: He is out eating a steak.

Here's my quick synopsis of the evolving situation

A vigorous low pressure system will traverse the western midsouth into the great lakes region. This low will probably be very well organized and will likely go sub 990 milibars as the LPS matures. As it starts to move northeastward an associated warm front will move through the area overnight and there could be a few severe storms that fire along this warm front tonight into the early a.m.

IMO this warm front will be the most important equation that will ultimately decide how significant tomorrows threat will be. If the warm front moves through rather quickly then look out... its gonna get nasty. The slower the warm front retreats northward the less significant this threat will be. With a slower moving warm front you will have junk convection trying to stabilize the atmosphere ahead of a very powerful cold front.

There's gonna be severe weather either way but if that warm front and its associated convection moves through the area rather quickly the surface layer airmass will establish a very favorable thermodynamic enviroment where the sun will begin to break through the clouds warming surface temps...then the atmosphere will become VERY unstable due to the high cape/high shear.

If that happens discrete rotating supercells will likely invade middle and east Tennessee transforming into line segments as the cold front nears the spine of the Appalachians. There could also be embedded supercells in these line segments. If things do go downhill tomorrow it looks like the western plateau area would be right in the bullseye and folks in east TN will have to endure a nocturnal Tornado threat which is a whole other creature itself.

There's alot of if's involved in this setup and this event could wind up being either a standard severe weather outbreak or an extreme one... so I would just stay tuned to my local NWS office and its radar.

Excellent write up Toot! Thanks man.

man, it looks like my fellow friends east of me are in for a rocky ride... yep, nice write ..toot... i couldnt agree with you more... spot on.there will be some nice breaks in late afternoon due to a nice mixing boundary layer i see in the models.

Thanks Toot

models keep showing the progress of the cold front getting here in west tn a little quicker each run... thats not good if you want severe weather, i like to chase... kind of pisses me off.

look for areas middle tenn. up to bowling green ky. go under a high risk... freaking cape values reaching nearly 3500 j/kg... thats awsome folks for march first. or anytime really

Toot wrote:

Dyersburg Weather wrote:Where the heck is Bruce ?

He probably had a heart attack from all this Long Track Tornado talk

yeah really... lol. if i could take off, i would head up yalls way to chase these babies... i never chased in middle tenn, or east tn before cause of the terrian.

tennessee storm09 wrote:look for areas middle tenn. up to bowling green ky. go under a high risk... freaking cape values reaching nearly 3500 j/kg... thats awsome folks for march first. or anytime really

Bruce, what are you seeing for E. Tn man??

Bruce I would really like to know your opinion on where the storms are going to start.

Toot, Bruce or anyone else who would like to answer, Why are the simulated radars(nam , ect) not showing the storms firing up in the juicy area ? Is it because of the cap.

Dyersburg Weather wrote:Toot, Bruce or anyone else who would like to answer, Why are the simulated radars(nam , ect) not showing the storms firing up in the juicy area ? Is it because of the cap.

Well it looks like the NAM and GFS shifted the worst of the storms a little to the south and east. I haven't seen any of the shortrange models though.

Dyersburg Weather wrote:Toot, Bruce or anyone else who would like to answer, Why are the simulated radars(nam , ect) not showing the storms firing up in the juicy area ? Is it because of the cap.

The sim radars that I have looked at all show storms firing near the TN river and moving east....of course all of them are showing different signatures also....not many of them showing alot of discrete activity but in my experience with them... if they show just a little discrete activity there is usually alot of it when it actually happens. Cant wait for the HRRR to get a good hold of this