March 2nd 2012 in like a lion!! HIGH RISK

I pretty much slept thru anything else Stove. Always like to watch lightning and hear the thunder.

Vanster67 wrote:reports of atleast 2 dead, possibly a 3rd person killed by tornado 10 miles east of Montery.

Aww man. I saw that WBIR was sending a crew over there, figured it was bad. Terrible thing to hear.

This line produced a nice hard rain here with a few gusts, but it was pretty much just a sting-ing rain.

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SPC AC 010652

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CST THU MAR 01 2012

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS
MS...AL...TN...KY...INDIANA...OH...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM ARKLAMISS REGION
ENEWD TO CAROLINAS AND NWD TO SWRN PA...INDIANA AND OZARKS...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-AIR PATTERN TRANSITION IS UNDERWAY ATTM...WITH HEIGHT FALLS
ACROSS MUCH OF WRN CONUS IN ADVANCE OF SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT. RESULT THROUGH DAY-1 WILL BE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS MOST OF WRN CONUS...MOVING EWD TO CENTRAL CONUS DAY-2. BY
START OF PERIOD...EXPECT NRN-STREAM MID-UPPER CYCLONE LOCATED OVER
ND/MB BORDER REGION...AND BASAL 500-MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
4-CORNERS REGION. DOWNSTREAM FROM THAT PERTURBATION...LOWER-
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE MOVING ENEWD ACROSS KS. VORTICITY
FIELDS WITH LATTER TWO SHORTWAVES SHOULD REMAIN WELL-CONNECTED...
EFFECTIVELY RESULTING IN POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM ERN IA/NRN IL
REGION TO ERN NM BY 3/00Z. BY 3/12Z...EXPECT MID-UPPER LOW OVER LH
OR ADJOINING PORTIONS ONT...WITH TROUGH SWWD OVER LOWEST SEGMENT OF
OH RIVER...OK...AND SRN NM.

AT SFC...COLD FRONT NOW IMPINGING ON SWRN APPALACHIANS/TN VALLEY/NRN
LA SHOULD MOVE BACK N AS WARM FRONT THIS PERIOD...WRN PORTION OF
WHICH WILL ATTACH WITH SFC FRONTAL-WAVE LOW OVER MO BY 2/12Z. LOW
WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD TOWARD SRN LOWER MI BY 3/00Z...THEN
OCCLUDE AND BECOME STACKED WITH MIDLEVEL VORTEX BY END OF PERIOD.
WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE NEWD OVER MID-UPPER OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH PERIOD. COLD FRONT TRAILING SFC LOW SHOULD
START PERIOD OVER OZARKS...SERN OK AND W-CENTRAL TX. BY
3/00Z...COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH ERN INDIANA/WRN OH...SERN AR...AND
MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN. BY 3/12Z...COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH
CENTRAL/ERN PA...WRN VA...NRN GA...AND SRN AL.

...OZARKS...LOWER MS/TN VALLEY AND AL TO OH VALLEY STATES...
SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS MAY BE CARRY OVER FROM LATE
DAY-1 PERIOD OVER PORTIONS OZARKS...LOWER OH VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH
REGIONS...WITH FAVORABLE CAPE ALOFT AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR HAIL.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO BECOME SFC-BASED BY
MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SVR. OTHER SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT. TSTMS SHOULD BE FAST-MOVING...COVERING LONG SWATHS WITH
THEIR SVR THREATS OVER ANY GIVEN PERIOD OF TIME.

AIR MASS AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT AND IN WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION
SHOULD DESTABILIZE FAVORABLY AMIDST STG LOW-LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. INTENSE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL
SPREAD OVER MUCH OF WARM SECTOR...ALONG WITH SFC DEW POINTS
INCREASING FROM MID 50S OVER OH TO MID 60S OVER PORTIONS MS/AL. IN
TANDEM WITH DIURNAL SFC HEATING...THIS SHOULD SUPPORT MLCAPE 250-500
J/KG OVER PORTIONS OH/INDIANA...TO 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE OVER
PORTIONS TN/KY...THEN DECREASING SOMEWHAT FARTHER S DUE TO
INFLUENCES OF STABLE LAYERS ALOFT. DESPITE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
EXTENT/COVERAGE OF VARIOUS CONVECTIVE MODES THIS FAR OUT...EXPECT
WEAK CINH...BROADLY FAVORABLE CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE...AND
RELATIVELY DENSE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION LIKELY TO IMPINGE ON THAT
SETTING. AS SUCH...NUMEROUS SVR WIND EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL FOR STG TORNADOES FROM EITHER SUPERCELLS OR QLCS-VORTEX
MECHANISMS. AT LEAST A FEW WIND EVENTS AOA 65 KT AND
LONG-TRACK/SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. THEREFORE...
SIGNIFICANT-SVR AREA IS BEING INTRODUCED...DRIVING CATEGORICAL MDT
RISK WHERE OVERLAID WITH RELATIVELY DENSE 45% TOTAL-SVR PROBABILITY.

...CAROLINAS...
INITIALLY SEPARATE SVR POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP OVER THIS REGION DURING
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH MAY CONNECT WITH ERN FRINGES OF LARGER SVR
AREA LATE IN PERIOD AS LATTER REGIME SHIFTS EWD. SRN BRANCH OF STG
MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD OVER INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
BOUNDARY-LAYER THETAE ASSOCIATED WITH RETREATING WARM FRONT.
PRIMARY UNCERTAINTIES ATTM RESIDE IN STRENGTH OF LOW-LEVEL
LIFT...AND THEREFORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HOWEVER...DIURNAL
HEATING...PRESENCE OF REASONABLY WELL-DEFINED FRONTAL ZONE...AND
WEAK MLCINH SHOULD PERMIT WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS TO
DEVELOP IN REGIME OF 60S F WARM-SECTOR DEW POINTS. ACCORDINGLY
ADJUSTED FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG LATE-AFTERNOON MLCAPE
POSSIBLE...JUXTAPOSED WITH 50-60 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES.
MAIN THREAT MAY BE DAMAGING WIND...WITH ISOLATED HAIL ALSO EXPECTED.
FCST HODOGRAPHS ALSO ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL/TORNADO RISK...MAIN
QUESTIONS BEING COVERAGE/DURATION OF FAVORABLE STORM MODES.

..EDWARDS.. 03/01/2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
353 AM CST THU MAR 1 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE COLD FRONT FROM EARLIER LAST EVENING NOW EAST/SOUTH OF THE
MID-STATE...WITH DRIER AIR SETTLING IN BEHIND. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH TODAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BUT
THIS RESULTING DRY WX WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN STRONG PLAINS SYSTEM THIS
EVENING AND RETURN AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT AS TIGHT SFC LOW
ADVANCES TO MO VICINITY BY 12Z FRI. THIS LOW THEN RACES INTO
EASTERN CANADA THRU 12Z SAT...WHICH WILL BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE CWA FRI EVENING. SEVERE WX PARAMETERS WITH THIS SYSTEM
LOOKING BETTER ORGANIZED THEN THE PREVIOUS. THIS SYSTEM NOT ONLY
PACKING STRONG LL WIND STRUCTURE/SHEAR BUT ALSO WILL HAVE PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY/POSITIVE ENERGY IN PLACE WHEN COLD FRONT APPROACHES/
PASSES. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY MOVE IN DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS...BULK OF SEVERE WX LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS INCLUDES POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TORNADOES IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
TIMEFRAME.

FRONTS MOVES OFF THE PLATEAU OVERNIGHT FRI AND THAT WILL BRING
DRYING CONDITIONS IN SAT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE MORNING HOURS. ON SUN...SHARP UPPER TROUGH PASSES BUT SPINS
POOL OF MODERATE MOISTURE DOWN WHICH MAY SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.

AFTER THAT POINT IT LOOKS LIKE SMOOTH SAILINGS INTO MID/LATE WEEK
AS UPPER RIDGING AND SFC/LL HIGHS LARGELY DOMINATE. LATE WED NIGHT
NEXT FRONT IS APPROACHING THE MS RIVER WHICH MAY BRING ISOLATED
SHOWERS INTO THE AREA. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS INCREASE THU AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.

&&

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Gee, night time severe. Can't say I am thrilled with that. That stuff is just spooky ya'know. Damn, two moderate events within 2 days of each other. I can't help but wonder if that's how this severe season is shaping up to be.

For Monterey, TN
Today

Sunny
Sunny

Hi 67 °F Tonight

Chance Thunderstorms Chance for Measurable Precipitation 30%
Chance
Tstms
Lo 52 °F Friday

Severe Thunderstorms Chance for Measurable Precipitation 60%
Severe
Tstms
Hi 69 °F Friday
Night
Severe Thunderstorms Chance for Measurable Precipitation 90%
Severe
Tstms
Lo 42 °F Saturday

Chance Showers Chance for Measurable Precipitation 30%
Chance
Showers
Hi 52 °F Saturday
Night
Partly Cloudy
Partly
Cloudy
Lo 31 °F Sunday

Chance Showers Chance for Measurable Precipitation 30%
Chance
Showers
Hi 50 °F Sunday
Night
Mostly Cloudy
Mostly
Cloudy
Lo 32 °F Monday

Sunny
Sunny

Hi 49 °F

I need another 3rd shift worker in this forum, so I can have someone to chat with.

In my neck of the woods, we just had plain ole rain with maybe a few rumbles of thunder every now and again. I myself didn't hear any thunder/see any lightning, but I guess it could've happened somewhere in my county.

Developed by Dr. Greg Forbes, (Find him on Facebook) The Weather Channel's severe weather expert, the TOR:CON index is an estimate of the likelihood of tornado activity within a given time period.

Areas listed below have an above-average threat of having severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, hail, and/or tornadoes for the specified days.


Thursday March 1

AL central, south - less than 2
GA - less than 2
LA central - less than 2
MS south half - less than 2
NC east - less than 2
SC - less than 2
TX east - less than 2
other areas - less than 1

Thursday Night March 1

AR north - 2
IL south - 2
KY west - 2
MO south - 2
MS north - 2

Friday March 2

AL north - 6
AR east, south - 3
GA extreme northwest - 3
IL south morning - 3
IN northeast - 3 to 4
IN south - 6
KY north-central ? 6
KY south-central ? 7
LA north - 4
MI southeast - 3 to 4
MS north half - 6
OH north - 4
OH south - 6
TN central ? 7
TN east ? 5
TN west ? 4
TX east - 2 to 3
WV west - 3 to 4
other areas - less than 2

WOW!! Dr. Forbes list mid-TN at a 7 for his Tor:Con Index. Wow!! Could be another rough day Friday. Not looking forward to it.

TOR:CON Value Descriptions

8:High probability of a tornado
6:Moderate possibility of a tornado
4:Low chance of a tornado nearby, but hail and/or strong wind gusts possible
2:Very low chance of a tornado, but hail and/or strong wind gusts possible
0:Near-zero chance of a tornado or a severe thunderstorm

Damn...Moderate risk already...

Tommorow really has the potential for some stronger tornados then today just because I don't think there will be as much convection to deal with out ahead of the storms.

what does everybody think of Dr. Forbes and his Tor:Con index. He seems like a knowledgeable man with severe weather. Is it just a simpler way for the public to understand the tornado risk? Some people don't put much stock into it. I like it.

Vanster67 wrote:what does everybody think of Dr. Forbes and his Tor:Con index. He seems like a knowledgeable man with severe weather. Is it just a simpler way for the public to understand the tornado risk? Some people don't put much stock into it. I like it.

I think it is good, I am glad it is coming from him rather then anyone else on there.

Looks like Friday will be a night time severe event for us. Any thoughts?

Hey Toot, do you think the SPC will keep the moderate risk?

Ugh, yeah night time severe is no good at all. That looks like midnight and after for east TN.

Yuck Stove. Just pure

Holy Shat !!! Look at the Shear/Instability for tomorrow in Central Kentucky.

Accuweather's Henry Margusity:

Significant Outbreak of Severe Weather and Tornadoes Friday

Comments

1. The outbreak Friday afternoon into the night could be even worse then the outbreak that just occurred. We have a surface low going from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes with a pressure drop of 20 mb from Friday Am to Saturday Am.

Other Factors...

Dew points in the 60s will be coming north into the Ohio Valley.

The left front quad of a 130-knot sub-tropical jet will aid in the intense upward motion.

The NAM EHI values are going through the roof. When I saw that, I could not believe that values could be so low for early March.

Factors that have to be considered. Storms that develop late tonight will race northeast and could inhibit afternoon convection. Clouds from the storms could also keep the warming down.

On the north side of the storm, snow will fall across the Great Lakes with over 3 inches in many areas. The map below shows the area of snow for the storm Friday.

I know I did not comment on the snow in the Northeast because I am focusing on the severe weather outbreak and the impacts of that outbreak. From what I looks at, it looks like snow will continue much of the day with over 6 inches across parts of Vermont and New Hampshire into Maine. So, it looks like a good weekend for skiers.



Thunderstorm Scale

12z NAM Hour 42 sim radar:

If something does not change we could see a high risk area to our north in my opinion.

OHX has put out a different timetable for arriving severe weather

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
332 PM EST THU MAR 1 2012

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-022045-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
332 PM EST THU MAR 1 2012 /232 PM CST THU MAR 1 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A WARM FRONT ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY TOWARDS MORNING. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES FROM
MISSOURI NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. STRONG AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS EARLY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL
BE TORNADOES...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...HOWEVER...OVER HOW WIDESPREAD OF
A SEVERE EVENT THIS MAY BE. SOME DATA PROPOSE THAT THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT COULD BE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOUISVILLE CWA. STAY
TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.


South meaning maybe a higher risk for Mid TN??

Dr. Forbes latest:

Friday March 2
AL north - 5
AL central (night) - 3
AR east, north-central - 3
GA north (night) - 3
IL south - 4
IN south - 4 to 5
KY central - 7
KY west - 4
KY east - 6
LA north - 3
LA central, southeast (night) - 3
MO southeast - 3 to 4
MS north - 5
MS central (night) - 3
NC west (night) - 3
OH - 3
TN north-central - 7
TN west - 4
TN east - 5 to 6
TN south-central - 5
WV west - 4
Other areas - less than 2

Updated today at 2:45 Eastern time.