Re: March 2nd 2012 in like a lion!! HIGH RISK

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-29, 7:29 pm

Be careful Reb, looks nasty.

by **Reb** 2012-02-29, 7:40 pm

fricking tornado in blount county!!! south of maryville

by **Toot** 2012-02-29, 7:48 pm

Nice hail core with that one yikes

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-29, 8:01 pm

Fatality in Smithville, schools closed tomorrow.

Edit: Cookville highway closed.

by **Grandpa Nasty** 2012-02-29, 8:32 pm

Crazy weather here the last week. 2 events hyped up even by the local mets. No rain at all from either sytem. I think it sprinkled for 1or 2 minutes at 6 this evening. I mean we got ZERO rain. Crazy stuff to not even get any rain.

by **Reb** 2012-02-29, 8:42 pm

sometimes thats how storms are, they are more concentrated and the rain isnt all spread out

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-29, 8:53 pm

Two observations about storms in east TN.

1) It's odd how 80% or so of our storms (both severe and winter) come through the valley at around 5 to 7 pm. Almost always we watch the events hit west TN mid morning then middle by lunch or just after before hitting us in the evening. I can't think of any explanation for this, maybe just the way the cards have fallen. The last time we had a snow threat that didn't occur during this time (that I recall) was Christmas 2010.

2) It seems the area around and just east/north of Sweetwater is a magnet for severe storms. Todd Howell mentioned this tonight but there is something about the topography of that area that just lets storms amplify. Once they hit they I75 corridor, BOOM.

by **Toot** 2012-02-29, 9:36 pm

Stovepipe wrote:
It's odd how 80% or so of our storms (both severe and winter) come through the valley at around 5 to 7 pm. Almost always we watch the events hit west TN mid morning then middle by lunch or just after before hitting us in the evening. I can't think of any explanation for this, maybe just the way the cards have fallen.

I definately think you're on to something there...I bet there is a logical explanation for this. I cant think of one wow

but I bet if one though hard enough he would eventually stumble on to the reason.

Its an interesting point that I totally agree with.

by **Toot** 2012-02-29, 9:45 pm

BTW here is the day 3 slight risk

March 2nd 2012 in like a lion!! HIGH RISK - Page 8 Day3prob_0830

I personally doubt that this one ever makes it to a moderate risk in this neck of the woods...maybe east of here

by **AndyP** 2012-02-29, 10:43 pm

New Tor warning up, Fentress and Overton counties..

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-29, 10:46 pm

AndyP wrote:New Tor warning up, Fentress and Overton counties..

Oh snap, thanks for the heads up Andy. That little line sure has strengthened since I last checked.

Headed right for John. yikes

by **AndyP** 2012-02-29, 10:53 pm

That area near the KY line has been so active today!

by **Toot** 2012-02-29, 10:59 pm

Nice...it will be interesting to see how these hold up with spc cancelling all the watches sneaky

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-29, 10:59 pm

It'll be interesting to see if the southern part of that line strengthens as well. Stuff seems to be popping up west of Franklin and Pulaski.

popcorn

Edit: Smithville about to get another rumble.

by **Toot** 2012-02-29, 11:18 pm

Meh... just some showers along a cold front...lol

March 2nd 2012 in like a lion!! HIGH RISK - Page 8 Image2

by **John1122** 2012-02-29, 11:29 pm

Under my second tornado warning of the day. Right now it's pretty much non-stop lightning and very windy.

by **John1122** 2012-02-29, 11:41 pm

Very impressive roaring outside right now. Be curious to see the trees in the morning.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-29, 11:44 pm

Looks impressive on the radar too John! yikes

by **John1122** 2012-02-29, 11:56 pm

Had some heavy rain and some very strong winds. The storm earlier today was probably more impressive but this one wasn't half bad.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-03-01, 12:17 am

Looks like Grandpa Nasty may have gotten a little rumble or two down there in Chatt Town. smoke

by **Dyersburg Weather** 2012-03-01, 12:32 am

I really think unless things change, Friday's biggest threat will effect some of the same areas. Missouri , Kentucky, Illinois, Indiana and down into Tennessee. This is just my amateur opinion.

March 2nd 2012 in like a lion!! HIGH RISK - Page 8 67s4mb

March 2nd 2012 in like a lion!! HIGH RISK - Page 8 67s4mb

March 2nd 2012 in like a lion!! HIGH RISK - Page 8 Hts1hc

by **Toot** 2012-03-01, 12:34 am

March 2nd 2012 in like a lion!! HIGH RISK - Page 8 Mcd0194

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0194
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST TN/WESTERN VA/FAR WESTERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 010520Z - 010645Z

AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND/OR WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY CONTINUE ON AN
ISOLATED BASIS EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR WESTERN
VA/NORTHEAST TN/WESTERN NC. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT/DURATION OF THE SEVERE
THREAT SEEMS QUESTIONABLE.

STORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO AN EASTWARD ADVANCING
COLD FRONT ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS...WITH THE BRUNT
OF THIS ACTIVITY OCCURRING EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST
TN/FAR WESTERN VA. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...A RELATIVELY MOIST
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY INFLUX CONTINUES...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAINING STEADY OR EVEN INCREASING A FEW DEGREES OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION. GIVEN ADEQUATE INSTABILITY
AND A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT /MORRISTOWN WSR-88D VWP IS
INDICATIVE OF AN IMPLIED 200-350 M2 PER S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH/...A FEW
SUPERCELLS INCLUDING A BRIEF TORNADO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
IN THE SHORT-TERM EASTWARD TOWARD THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE
PERSISTENCE/EVOLUTION OF THIS CONVECTION FARTHER EAST /OF THE
APPALACHIANS SPINE/ INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CAROLINAS/SOUTHERN VA
OVERNIGHT IS UNCERTAIN...BUT A SEVERE THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.